Poll: DeSantis Outperforming Trump in Michigan

New GOP research says the Florida governor matches up better against Joe Biden.

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on March 5, 2023 in Simi Valley, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis performs better against President Joe Biden in Michigan than former President Donald Trump and has more room to grow, according to fresh polling conducted by a Republican firm.

The survey of 500 registered voters, conducted Monday through Wednesday, showed DeSantis leading Biden 45 percent to 43 percent. The same poll showed the current president leading the former president 45 percent to 42 percent. Perhaps more encouraging for DeSantis: He is less well known than Trump in Michigan—and less polarizing. 

Fifty-five percent of voters view Trump unfavorably, while just 34 percent of voters feel the same about DeSantis. And while 19 percent had never heard of Florida’s governor and 13 percent said they had no opinion of him, those numbers for Trump were zero percent and 4 percent, respectively. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.

“Supporting Trump in ’24 has already been ruled out by a majority of voters in Michigan,” reads the polling memorandum from Public Opinion Strategies shared with The Dispatch. “A strong majority of these general election voters (55%) say they would NOT be likely to vote for Trump, while just 43% say they would be likely to consider him. Fully 46% of voters say they would be likely to vote for DeSantis, with another 46% who say they would not.” 

Public Opinion Strategies fielded the poll on behalf of Citizen Awareness Project, a political nonprofit that the firm said is not affiliated with the Trump campaign, DeSantis’ political team, or any of the super PACs supporting their 2024 efforts. 

Michigan is a key White House battleground. Trump won narrowly there in 2016; Biden did the same in 2020. The president’s job approval rating in this survey was 42 percent. But Democrats were successful in the state in the 2022 midterm elections. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer cruised to reelection and her party captured both chambers of the legislature for the first time in four decades. 

Other interesting findings from the poll include:

  • DeSantis leads Biden among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent; he led the president among seniors 48 percent to 45 percent, and the governor led among white suburban women 47 percent to 39 percent.  
  • Trump led Biden among independent voters 40 percent to 36 percent but trailed the president among seniors 47 percent to 41 percent—and among white  suburban women 44 percent to 38 percent.
  • DeSantis led by 13 points among voters who “somewhat” disapprove of Biden; Trump trailed by 5 points among those same voters.  

Trump currently leads DeSantis in most national and state polls gauging Republican preferences in the party’s 2024 presidential primary.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    A non-significant finding. The polling for all three candidates remains within the MoE. That means Trump could be leading, Biden could be leading, or DeSantis could be leading...

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  2. Avatar photo
    OJFL

    I am not a fan of many of Mr. DeSantis' actions, but if that is what will take to move from Mr. Trump, I will take it.

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  3. Goatprairie

    The problem for DeSantis....he can't win in 2024 without the cultists, but Trump can't win with only the cultists.
    Trump will get all of his cult following, but he can't get the moderates or fence sitters.
    DeSantis can get a lot more of the moderates and fence sitters than Trump (like me), but he wouldn't get a goodly share of the cult.
    Moral of story: the GOP is probably screwed in the short term by Trump and his cult. Better to take the medicine now and divorce themselves from the cult.
    I doubt DeSantis or the other candidates other than Christie want to do that, but it will be necessary for the GOP to remain viable in the future.

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    1. Nemmerle924

      Screwed is right. Unless something changes the game. Like something forcing Trump out of the race.

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      1. Goatprairie

        Trump was fools gold in 2016. If he hadn't jumped on immigration strongly before anybody else, he would never have gotten traction. And he still had time to change his ways, but Trump being Trump and a leopard can't change it's spots, he's pretty much wrecked the party. At least for the short term.
        Other than some positive policy actions during his presidency, the only really good thing he's done is to reveal all the spineless weasels in the GOP who value their careers over integrity...which most of them have jettisoned.

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          OJFL

          What is even more aggravating is that his positions on immigration were not good. It was pure populism and little conviction and thoughtful policies.

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          1. Goatprairie

            Trump can't think beyond what he wants to have for lunch that day.

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  4. Avatar photo
    KLeeC

    This will help with the electability factor, but I fear it won't last if DeSantis and his team keep wooing the wild wings instead.

    Does anyone know if the problem with his advisors is their legitimately extreme ideology or just really bad strategy...?

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  5. Avatar photo
    Mudskipper

    I've made this comment in reply to several commenters already, but I thought I would do an original post on this subject.

    I think this report is misleading a lot of people. They are assuming that the polling shows DeSantis leading Trump among Republican voters. A careful reading of the report shows that this is nowhere stated. I think this should be clarified in the body of the report itself.

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    1. Avatar photo
      KLeeC

      Interesting that anyone would take it that way. It says likely voters up front, and the whole thing is about the general - not the primaries.

      Edit: I guess the title would do it, if they skip the article itself. Eek

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  6. Avatar photo
    Dlyons

    Points to the challenges both parties will continue to face with their front-running candidates. Short a third party entry, the former President (assuming he gets the nomination) may have trouble in Michigan given what the current administration is doing with subsidies to auto manufacturers and the public in their push for electric vehicles.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Robert Knudson

    I am not surprised that the people of Michigan display some sanity. Sadly, the Michigan Republican Party seems to be an asylum of sorts for that group of Michiganders who will not let the reality of the last election upset their worldview, and this is the primary electorate. Electability is for reasonable people who care about such things; it is not a concern of a party that chose to force out Peter Meijer because of his impeachment vote for Trump. Michigan may choose sanity, but for Michigan Republicans it is Trump who holds sway.

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    1. Richard Kennedy

      Good news bad news: DeSantis doing better among Republicans in Michigan? Great!
      The new GOP chairwoman is the only staffer of the Party according to Nolan Finley of the Detroit News. If only there was an apparatus to exploit something other than Trump.

      And yes, Michigan is leaning/moving blue. DeSantis apparently supporting the six week abortion law will not help. I say this as a pro-lifer, Michigan is not in the mood for abortion restrictions these days.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Mudskipper

        I'm afraid I have to be a bearer of bad news: nowhere in this report does it describe how well DeSantis does against Trump among Republican voters only.

        I had to read the report carefully to realize this. The title "Poll: DeSantis Outperforming Trump in Michigan" easily leads to the assumption that this result was among Republican primary voters.

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  8. The Pragmatic Conservative

    I think Michigan still at least tilts to the left, 2016 notwithstanding. If Republicans win next year, it'll likely be because of the true swing states (i.e. Wisconsin and Georgia)and Michigan will follow along because of the momentum. The best way to do that is to run candidates focused on the future, not the past, as 2022 demonstrated. The past month though seems to indicate Republican primary voters (at the moment at least) are determined to do the latter.

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  9. Jim S

    Whitmer’s success in Michigan is closely tied to reaction to the Dobbs ruling. It will be interesting to see what happens once those suburban women find out what RonDa just signed in Florida.

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    1. The Pragmatic Conservative

      To some extent. Having a lunatic opponent in 2022 also helps.

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      1. Jim S

        True. I do not think anyone can empirically tie GOP losses in Michigan to abortion politics, but I wouldn’t want to bet against it.

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  10. Raincheck

    Two things are true. 1) DeSantis is, at this point, a stronger general election candidate. 2) Trump is stronger in a GOP primary.

    DeSantis has to turn the first point into a big advantage with primary voters if he is going to succeed. But his flailing efforts to pursue primary voters with culture war battles and strong arm tactics against Disney may hurt his chances in a general. He’s acting like a turd to try and win the primary, instead of playing up his electability advantage.

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