What Happens if a Presidential Nominee Can’t Continue, Explained

The parties have contingencies before Election Day. But after that, it’s complicated.

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Joe Biden walks off of his campaign bus in 2020. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

When President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19 in October 2020, questions swirled about what would happen to his spot on the ballot if he died or became incapacitated before Election Day. The same questions are resurfacing this cycle, given that the presidential frontrunners for the 2024 election—President Joe Biden and Trump—are 80 and 76 years old, respectively. 

Privately, Democrats in the president’s orbit admit they are worried Biden may have age-related health complications on the campaign trail. Of particular concern, according to a senior Obama administration official, is the possibility that Biden would have a health episode in the final months of a general election campaign, raising doubts about Biden’s suitability for office or that he may need to be replaced on the ticket. 

What happens when a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated after winning a party’s nomination? 

The most recent national ticket candidate switch after a nominating convention occurred in 1972, when Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern tapped Sen. Thomas Eagleton at the last minute to serve as his running mate. McGovern soon discovered that Eagleton had been hospitalized three times for depression and undergone electroshock treatment. Eighteen days after securing the Democratic vice presidential nomination, Eagleton withdrew under pressure from McGovern and was replaced by Sargent Shriver. Republican presidential nominee Richard Nixon won the general election in a landslide. 

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  1. M. Adrian Canadiensis

    Tell me there aren't people in each party's apparatus hoping for some kind of major health issue prompting a change as soon as possible right after a nomination. Not saying it wouldn't be CHAOS, but tell me there aren't some smoked-filled rooms full of goddamn adults who would like to hand-pick an electable, younger-than-seventy candidate without any of the primary pressures.

    I know I'm kind of secretly rooting for it--but, then, I'd enjoy the made-for-TV chaos of it.

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  2. DTruitt

    Bad news for the Dems. Of course, we could see a "Weekend at Bernie's" attempt to obfuscate the incapacitation of Biden.

    But don't assume it'll be Biden vs. Trump, no matter all the yakking by the media types who are already handing the nomination to Trump, despite the fact that not even one televised debate has taken place, and only a few early states are publishing state polls, and of those that do the majority are either going for DeSantis or a tie between DeSantis and Trump.

    The obvious contrast between the doddering dottard now in the White House and a robust forty something opposing candidate would be, let's say, not in Biden's favor. That also does not help Trump in the primary either. I'm thinking what happens when Trump fumbles taking a drink of water from a glass on the debate stage with his "all thumbs" technique ... which probably helps explain why he does not want to debate anybody.

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    1. Scianti7

      I'm not sure Biden would stay in it if Trump isn't a candidate. I don't know, of course, but I have thoughts that he'd bow out.

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  3. Szucsad

    One thing is for sure: this election cycle is going to be a wild ride

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    JohnF

    Hypothetically speaking, what happens if a Party's nominee is sent to prison before the election?

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    1. DTruitt

      Or a very sleepy, Geritol induced ride depending upon whom Biden has to face in November.

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    Mudskipper

    Thanks for the explainer. I was wondering what would happen. At least Harris doesn't automatically become the Democratic nominee.

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    Patrick

    Nice explainer. If nothing else, I think this supports the idea that early voting beyond maybe 2 weeks is a bad idea. Events have a tendency to intervene.

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    1. Richard Kennedy

      There is nothing intrinsically wrong with early voting at some point before Election Day despite what the GOP claims. However, there’s nothing wrong with an existential object lesson on the downside of early voting to give opportunity for a sober discussion about the issue going forward.
      Sadly, I’m thinking that scenario would probably happen if it were Biden who created the problem than Trump. The self absorption of the Democratic Party will never surprise me.

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  7. J. Everett Schubert

    Rooting for chaos in the College Football Playoff situation is fun and entertaining.

    But not in the case of elections. Hoping and praying that 2024 is a decisive result with a smooth path between Election Day and Inauguration Day.

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  8. Cegoodman85

    I don't even know what to hope for. Sounds like it could be a disaster no matter what happens.

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    Aylene Wright

    It occurs to me this is this quite a "first world" complaint that both Trump and Biden could die at some point in the election cycle because they are old. Once upon a time, even a young politician could die at some point in the election cycle from some epidemic disease, minor injury that became infected, etc. We've actually been lucky this hasn't happened in a POTUS contest before!

    Although William Henry Harrison dying a month into his term, DID actually result in a bit of a Constitutional crisis then, because there was a bit of a controversy over whether his successor, John Tyler, really was the legitimate President, or just "Acting President". Tyler was probably less popular within his own party (the Whigs) as the current VP is within hers, and actually wound up getting kicked out of his own party!

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  10. Jim.H

    This won’t be a problem for the Biden admin, even if he is incapacitated, the people that are controlling him now will play it like ”Weekend at Bernie’s”

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    1. Richard Kennedy

      Proof of life is going to be an issue at some point before the Inauguration. Even if D.C. has a horrible Arctic Blast on or before Jan 20 and moving the festivities inside becomes appropriate (Biden isn’t the only octogenarian expected to be in attendance, you know), it will still have to be public with witnesses and invited guests. And Roberts will have to be there. In fact, institutionalist Chief Justice Roberts would have plenty of reason to object to a Zoom Oath Of Office Vow and demand that he be present to administer the Oath.

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