A Reality Check on Crime

In his younger and more vulnerable years, Jonah had a minor obsession with criminology (for ...

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In his younger and more vulnerable years, Jonah had a minor obsession with criminology (for no reason in particular, he says). Today, he rekindles that old passion by talking to Shawn Bushway, a scholar at the University at Albany and the RAND Corporation, about the history of crime in America. The pair begins by exploring whether crime is currently on the rise, before launching into a supremely wonky discussion of cities, statistics, and the root causes of criminal behavior. Is the broken windows theory on its way out? Has America made any real progress on race? And why are Democrats still talking about defunding the police? 

Show Notes:

– Shawn’s page at RAND

– Racial disparities in criminal justice

– Is racial progress a myth?

– Trends and patterns in interracial marriage

– Marvin Wolfgang

– LBJ’s crime commission

– “The Racist Roots of Campus Policing”

– Only 25 percent of Americans favor decreased police spending

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Comments (18)
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  1. M M (Lee)

    Jonah, Love your podcast and I am trying to listen every day. That said, this edition on crime (for me) perfectly illustrated how Trump got elected. The guest mentioned how crime has dropped since the 1990s - and then referenced New York and D.C! (3% of the nation!).

    We all know that under Giuliani, he reduced murders by nearly 90%. Both NYC and DC are floating in taxpayer funds to their banks and government bureaucracies (and thus through taxes to their police) and Giuliani policed NYC with the same attention to detail typically found in nice suburbs.

    However, in Memphis, TN and Jackson, MS, homicides pre-pandemic were at all-time highs, far higher than in the 90s. In 2020 and 2021 homicides in both cities have tripled and still going higher. Where is the outrage?

    This podcast was almost entirely defensive in nature as a counterpoint to liberal ideas on reform. But these liberal reforms are absurd on their face. I'd like to hear someone with Reagan-esque conviction make a decision to reduce our homicide rates just as NY and DC have already experienced. For starters that means we will need to triple our numbers of officers in order to have number of officers similar to NYC on a per criminal basis. That will mean increasing salaries for recruiting purposes, thus expanding overall police funding at least five-fold.

    I would love to hear you interview one of the researchers from the Manhattan Institute on this topic. They seem to be crystal clear on stategies to get NYC-level results in other parts of the country.

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  2. Scott Mc

    Jonah what a great conversation. Really good guest. Nice to avoid culture war conversation and people and subjects that waste oxygen. Sean was smart and interested in solutions and used data to help inform. Nice to hear discussions that are not driven by the narratives of media outlets, big groups etc...

    I was focused to listen to everything before posting any comments. It took a while to focus on the victims of crime. And who is usually the victims of crime. Many who discuss solutions have been fortunate not to have been victims so theory is easy. Victims almost always feel the system is unfair to them.
    Prosecutors, etc all have incentives and laws that are tricky not simple.

    Please consider adding the mental health issue as a topic. You touched on the history rather than just saying it was only cut for political reasons. There is a real story behind why the institutions were changed and is worth discussing.
    Great show and proper restraint...as hard as it is I know. Thank you.

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    Seth B

    That was a really good one, Jonah.
    Another interesting person with insights into crime and punishment that you might consider talking to: Peter Moskos, a former police officer who now chairs the Department of Law, Police Science, and Criminal Justice Administration at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in NYC. I once heard a fascinating conversation that Moskos had with Glenn Loury. And anyone who has written a book called "In Defense of Flogging" (!) would surely make an interesting Remnant guest.

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  4. Anonymous

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      Seth B

      Well, in the years you've mentioned, Harvard surely feared the Norman Conquest. Best to be prepared!

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      1. linda

        opps

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        1. linda

          Damn the Man. Time to sign off! Thanks, Seth. Norman was always a drag.

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  5. Tom (Inadvertent Obfuscation)

    Thank you for this! It is very helpful to hear some of the statistics to reduce my misconceptions!

    I do have one question about the statistics, however. Are non-violent crimes being reported as frequently as in past years? I've had many things stolen over the years and never bothered to report them. (What is the point?)

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    OK Steele

    I resent the absence of puns related to the guest’s name in the name of this podcast. Otherwise A+ content.

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  7. Jon N

    This was one of the best podcasts I’ve listened to from any of the dispatch’s pods. Excellent statistical analysis very fair and balanced. Would be interested to here more in Jonah’s further “pushbacks”. This guy came with the receipts statistically though. So tough to believe he put himself out there without being able to back up anything he said.

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  8. Jon N

    This was one of the best podcasts I’ve listened to from any of the dispatch’s pods. Excellent statistical analysis very fair and balanced. Would be interested to here more in Jonah’s further “pushbacks”. This guy came with the receipts statistically though. So tough to believe he put himself out there without being able to back up anything he said.

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  9. Jason Runyan

    Great interview Jonah. I feel much more enlightened on this subject. But, uh, seriously WTF? Get rid of priors? Is he insane? So I take it he's cool with the dude I used to see as a security guard at the park downtown that had 6 previous arrests for sexual assault of minors, never spent more than 8 months in jail and always seemed to show up when there were events with a lot of kids (until I'd kick him out)? Or these monsters / lunatics that have had multiple arrests that are punching out old Asian people? Possibly the same people that used to punch out Jewish people with the "knockout game"? They should have their slate clean each time? How many times were people like Charles Manson arrested before their great crimes? (Answer: numerous). I may not be a scholar, but it doesn't make sense that increased incarceration didn't lead to lower crime, purely for the fact that if you are in jail / prison, you can't commit crime on the streets. It sucks that the mental institutions were shut down, and that all we have now are prisons, but if you have clearly shown you cannot contribute to society by constantly committing felonies, I saw we go the OPPOSITE way of your guest, reinstate 3 strikes and you're out for all violent crimes and felonies. No more 77 previous arrests so you cam punch out elderly Asian women trying to catch the subway. What we have seen is that when you do what they are doing in big cities, i.e., NY / LA, a revolving door for criminals, DOES NOT WORK! You don't need a college degree to see that.

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    1. Tom (Inadvertent Obfuscation)

      You have a point on the priors.
      I would suggest that the priors expire. That is, an assault on a vending machine in 1985 (classed as a felony in TX) should not affect one's sentencing in 2021. A murder int 1985 might be another thing.

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    Adicesa14

    Another excellent conversation. That crime markedly decreased since the 1990’s should always be part of any conversation about crime and policing. However, what is the effect from Ferguson, Floyd, Antifa, BLM, ‘abolish the police,’ shutdown, etc.? Have these and similar developments altered the declining trend?

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