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Have Nearly 90 Percent of Intubated Coronavirus Patients in New York Died?
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Have Nearly 90 Percent of Intubated Coronavirus Patients in New York Died?

The headlines about a peer-reviewed study have caused confusion.

Alec Dent
Apr 27, 2020
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Have Nearly 90 Percent of Intubated Coronavirus Patients in New York Died?
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Media coverage of a recently published study on coronavirus patients in New York City hospitals led to some confusion on Twitter over the mortality rate of patients who required ventilator treatment:

Twitter avatar for @esglaudeEddie S. Glaude Jr. @esglaude
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make it
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make itThe analysis is the largest and most comprehensive look at outcomes in the United States to be published so far.washingtonpost.com

April 23rd 2020

85 Retweets153 Likes
Twitter avatar for @gregpmillerGreg Miller @gregpmiller
Good God -- in NY's largest hospital system, 88% of covid patients on ventilators didn't make it.
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make itThe analysis is the largest and most comprehensive look at outcomes in the United States to be published so far.washingtonpost.com

April 23rd 2020

59 Retweets69 Likes
Twitter avatar for @NickKristofNicholas Kristof @NickKristof
A very sobering JAMA study of patients treated for Covid-19 in NYC hospitals. Of those placed on ventilators in the study, 88 percent died:
Clinical Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among Patients With COVID-19 Hospitalized in the NYC AreaThis case series describes clinical characteristics, health services use, and outcomes of patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cared for at 12 hospitals of a single health system in the New York City (NYC) area.jamanetwork.com

April 23rd 2020

44 Retweets51 Likes
Twitter avatar for @CarolLeonnigCarol Leonnig @CarolLeonnig
Sad fact affirmed by new study of NY covid deaths: *80 % of people who needed ventilators later died One surprise: 70 % of very sick patients did not have a fever. Fever is currently listed as the top symptom of covid-19 by the CDC
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make itThe analysis is the largest and most comprehensive look at outcomes in the United States to be published so far.washingtonpost.com

April 23rd 2020

237 Retweets299 Likes
Twitter avatar for @eyokleyEli Yokley @eyokley
Stunning stat, per the Washington Post: Almost 9 in 10 coronavirus patients on ventilators in New York’s largest hospital system didn't survive.
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make itThe analysis is the largest and most comprehensive look at outcomes in the United States to be published so far.washingtonpost.com

April 23rd 2020

110 Retweets114 Likes

Headlines from articles by the Washington Post, The Hill, CNN, the New York Post, Bloomberg, and others suggested that nearly 90 percent of patients with a case of coronavirus severe enough to require a ventilator died. The basis for these claims is a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, a peer-reviewed medical journal, on Wednesday. The study examined 5,700 patients who had been hospitalized due to coronavirus in New York City between March 1 and April 4. It analyzes a number of factors—age, sex, underlying health issues—to explore how patients in different groups fared with coronavirus. But the finding that led to a flurry of articles and tweets was that “Mortality for those requiring mechanical ventilation was 88.1%.”

However, this statistic doesn’t tell the whole story. Of the 5,700 patients included in the study, 3,066 cases were not yet resolved. As the doctors behind the paper wrote: “The absence of data on patients who remained hospitalized at the final study date may have biased the findings, including the high mortality rate of patients who received mechanical ventilation older than age 65 years.” While reporting on the study often included this caveat, the headlines and tweets did not.

The authors also cautioned that “this study reported mortality rates only for patients with definite outcomes (discharge or death), and longer-term study may find different mortality rates as different segments of the population are infected.”

One of the paper’s authors, Dr. Mangala Narasimhan, told The Dispatch Fact Check that across the hospital system the ventilator mortality rate is currently in the high 60 percent range. “It will continue to drop a little,” said Dr. Narasimhan. “I think it will be in the 50-60 percent mark.”

If you have a claim you would like to see us fact check, please send us an email at factcheck@thedispatch.com. If you would like to suggest a correction to this piece or any other Dispatch article, please email corrections@thedispatch.com.

Photograph of a ventilator by Erin Clark/Globe Staff/Getty Images.

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Have Nearly 90 Percent of Intubated Coronavirus Patients in New York Died?
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Ray Salemi
Apr 27, 2020

Are the fact checks behind the paywall? This sort of information may be a good marketing vehicle.

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Nathan
Apr 27, 2020

This is helpful. Thank you and good work.

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