The Morning Dispatch: Can We Avoid Another Surge?

Happy Monday! So many of you expressed interest in a Morning Dispatch March Madness pool that we couldn’t not put one together.

To enter your bracket, click here (you will need to have a free ESPN account) and select “Join Group.” The password is “PirateSkiff!” and predictions must be completed before the first games tip off on Friday morning.

We’ll keep you updated on the leaderboard over the next few weeks. Go Illini! [Editor’s note: Ahem, Go Badgers.]

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Saturday directed the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to support U.S. government efforts to deal with the surge in unaccompanied minors arriving at the southern border.

• Military leaders who seized control of Burma in last month’s coup declared martial law in parts of the country as they continue to crack down on protesters, at least 38 of whom were killed yesterday.

• The New York Times reports the United States currently has about 3,500 troops in Afghanistan, approximately 1,000 more than had previously been disclosed. The Biden administration is currently weighing whether to abide by the Trump administration’s promise to remove all U.S. forces from the country by May 1.

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand—both of New York—became on Friday the highest ranking Democratic officials to call on Gov. Andrew Cuomo to resign. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Joe Biden both said they’ll wait until the conclusion of the investigation into Cuomo’s alleged sexual harassment before weighing in.

• Angela Merkel’s center-right political party, the Christian Democratic Union, was dealt staggering blows in two German state elections over the weekend. The elections signal widespread disdain among German voters for the country’s handling of the coronavirus.

• The city of Minneapolis on Friday agreed to settle a civil wrongful death lawsuit brought by the family of George Floyd for a record $27 million. The news comes as the murder trial for former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin kicks off.

• The United States confirmed 38,123 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday per the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard. An additional 602 deaths were attributed to the virus on Sunday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 534,877. According to the Centers for Disease Control, 30,791 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, and 1,356,773 COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered yesterday. 69,784,210 Americans have now received at least one dose.

Will We Get One Last COVID Surge?

More than a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, hope is on the horizon. The U.S. is pulling ahead of every other country in its vaccine rollout—a reality reflected in plunging case rates. We could have the bulk of this thing mostly behind us in a matter of weeks. But as states across the country begin to remove the last of their pandemic-related restrictions and Americans bask in this newfound optimism, public health officials are warning of a potential final surge of the virus—a last gasp before herd immunity is reached.

The latest developments in the European Union are what American epidemiologists and virologists are hoping to avoid. After peaking in early November, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the EU had—a few plateaus notwithstanding—been trending downward for months. But in mid-February, the number started ticking higher once again, and it’s still climbing today. 

“Through this whole pandemic, we’ve been about maybe three or four weeks behind Europe, so we’ve used Europe as a barometer of what’s going to happen in the United States,” former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on CBS’ Face the Nation yesterday. 

The United States’ trendline is not yet headed back up, but its rate of decline has slowed in recent weeks. “We’re very pleased by the sharp decline that you’ve shown,” Dr. Anthony Fauci told Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. “But when you see a plateauing at a level of anywhere between 50,000 and 65,000 cases a day, that is absolutely no time to declare victory. Because we know from previous surges that we’ve had over the year that when you see that leveling off at a high level, there’s always the risk of a surge back up. And, in fact, unfortunately, that’s exactly what is happening in Europe right now.”

Italy’s new prime minister, Mario Draghi, announced new restrictions on Friday that will go into effect for most of the population today. The entire country will be placed under a strict lockdown over the Easter weekend. “I am aware that today’s measures will have an impact on children’s education, on the economy but also on the psychological state of us all,” Draghi said. “We believe that only with widespread vaccinations will we be able to avoid measures like these.”

There are myriad reasons the EU’s vaccination efforts are lagging behind, but recent snags with the AstraZeneca vaccine are playing a role. Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, the Netherlands, and parts of Italy have temporarily suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine amid reports that four Norwegians experienced serious blood clotting after receiving the vaccine. “It has not been concluded that there is any link between the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca and these cases,” Ireland’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn said. “However, acting on the precautionary principle, and pending receipt of further information, the NIAC has recommended the temporary deferral of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca vaccination programme in Ireland.”

The United States has yet to authorize the AstraZeneca vaccine, but U.S. vaccinations are starting to hum. After a slow start, the country is now administering nearly 2.5 million vaccine doses per day (including more than 4 million on Saturday), and 27 percent of adult Americans have received at least one shot. In fact, the U.S. is administering vaccines at a faster rate than all but a handful of countries—and three times faster than the EU on a per capita basis.

Will we be able to vaccinate ourselves out of a fourth surge? Gottlieb seems to think so. “I think most of the country is going to look much better well before that,” he said when asked about Biden’s relatively unambitious 4th of July normalcy deadline. “I think you’re seeing cases decline all around the nation, even in parts of the country where 1.1.7, that U.K. variant, is becoming very prevalent. You’re still seeing continued declines, albeit more slowly.” 

“I think the combination of a lot of prior infection and the fact that we’re vaccinating aggressively now is enough to keep up with that and hopefully get ahead of it,” Gottlieb continued. “So I think as we get into April, the situation around the country is going to look markedly better. But there will be pockets of outbreaks and there will be pockets where some of these variants become more prevalent that could look bad even though the rest of the nation is going to look very good.”

Democratic Support for Andrew Cuomo Crashes

Last March, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo was facing the toughest challenge of his career, but politically coasting through his third term. His daily coronavirus press briefings—which later won him an Emmy—were lauded by state lawmakers as proof of his unmatched ability to govern during a crisis. The national media plucked him from Albany to become the Democrats’ foil to President Trump’s handling of the pandemic, an effort amplified by Cuomo’s brother, Chris, and his primetime show on CNN.

But a year later, Cuomo is fighting for his political life—and hanging on by a thread. Multiple scandals have chipped away at his credibility. His administration’s dramatic underreporting of New York nursing home COVID-19 deaths has finally caught up with him, and he is now facing seven separate allegations of workplace harassment and improper touching. Increasingly desperate, the 63-year-old governor is now doing everything in his power to salvage his legacy.

Given Cuomo’s history, it should come as no surprise that “everything in his power” includes intimidation tactics and thinly veiled threats.

The Washington Post reported Sunday that Larry Schwartz—the current volunteer head of New York’s vaccine rollout and friend of Cuomo’s—has spent the past two weeks calling state executives to gauge their loyalty to the governor.

According to several public officials who spoke under the condition of anonymity, Schwartz made clear that those on the other end of the phone should let New York Attorney General Letitia James’ investigations into Cuomo’s alleged sexual misconduct play out before jumping to conclusions. 

“At best, it was inappropriate,” said one Democratic county executive who filed an ethics complaint with James’ office in response to Schwartz’s call. “At worst, it was clearly over the ethical line.” The executive spoke to the Post anonymously out of “fear that the Cuomo administration would retaliate against the county’s residents.”

Another executive didn’t feel threatened by the call personally, but saw how others could’ve been. “I didn’t feel that there was correlation between the answer I was going to give and my vaccine supply,” they said. “But I could see how maybe someone else maybe got that impression.”

Schwartz admitted to making these calls in a statement to the Post, but maintained that he “did nothing wrong.”

The details of Schwartz’ calls came just days after the Wall Street Journal reported that Cuomo’s office called at least six former staffers in December to request information about Lindsey Boylan, a former economic adviser to Cuomo who accused him of sexual harassment late last year. Some former advisers said they interpreted the calls—which were made by both current administration officials and former aides—as attempts to intimidate them into providing information that would damage Boylan’s credibility.

“I felt intimidated, and I felt bewildered,” said Ana Liss, a former aide who received a call in December and has since accused Cuomo of inappropriate behavior.

“The subtext was clear,” another call recipient told the Journal. “I was being asked to dish dirt on her.”

In a briefing on Friday, Cuomo dismissed calls for his resignation as “cancel culture.” He implored New York residents and lawmakers not to jump to conclusions until the attorney general’s investigations are complete. “The people of New York should not have confidence in a politician who takes a position without knowing any facts or substance,” Cuomo said on Friday, denying the allegations against him and raising questions about his accusers’ motivations. “I won’t speculate about people’s possible motives, but I can tell you as a former Attorney General who’s gone through this situation many times, there are often many motivations for making an allegation and that is why you need to know the facts before you make a decision.”

But as allegations of sexual misconduct continue to pile up, more and more Democratic officials have begun calling for the governor’s resignation. “Due to the multiple, credible sexual harassment and misconduct allegations, it is clear that Governor Cuomo has lost the confidence of his governing partners and the people of New York,” Democratic Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer said in a joint statement on Friday. “Governor Cuomo should resign.”

They joined nearly every other member of the New York congressional delegation in calling for Cuomo to step down.

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have voiced support for James’ investigation, but both stopped short of calling for Cuomo’s resignation. “The governor should look inside his heart—he loves New York—to see if he can govern effectively,” Pelosi told ABC News yesterday. “And [resignation] could be one of the considerations that he has.”

“I think the investigation is underway and we should see what it brings us,” Biden added Sunday night.

The Democratic-led New York State Assembly announced Thursday that it will begin impeachment investigations into Cuomo, which will evaluate the allegations of sexual misconduct as well as the governor’s drastic underreporting of New York nursing home deaths. 

“He doesn’t have a lot of friends in the legislature,” said state Democratic New York Sen. Elijah Reichlin-Melnick, who signed a letter last week calling for Cuomo to step down from office. “He has spent years making enemies.”

Cuomo has portrayed himself as a victim of politics. “I was not elected by the politicians, I was elected by the people,” he said. The governor—a son of former Governor Mario Cuomo who married into the Kennedy family and publicly declared his interest in running for office at the age of 28—said that the lawmakers calling for his ouster were doing so in part because he is “not part of the political club.” 

Worth Your Time

• In a heart-wrenching piece for the Washington Post, Jose Del Real writes about how politics and disinformation are tearing a family apart. “Why is this important enough to compromise your relationships with your kids? Why does he mean more to you than us?” Laurie Nelsen, 46, texted her mom, Claire, in December. She “felt like she was hurting her mother by trying to get her to see the truth,” Del Real writes. “But she also worried she would be hurting her by not doing so. Trumpism, she felt, had delivered Claire into a black hole of baseless beliefs, and the reach of that disinformation was starting to feel dangerous ­— to the country, to their family and to Claire’s own well-being.”

• Ramesh Ponnuru argues in his latest Bloomberg column that the 2020 election demonstrated the GOP does not need to suppress voter turnout in order to win. “Republicans do not, by and large, see themselves as opponents of democracy. Their institutional interest in making sure voter turnout is low is smaller than even they think, and it’s getting smaller,” he writes. “Republicans think U.S. democracy is threatened by Democratic fraud; Democrats think it’s threatened by Republican authoritarianism. One day they both may have to face the good news that neither of these things is true.”

Presented Without Comment

Also Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

• On the site today, Chris Stirewalt writes on the GOP’s dalliance with class warfare, and Danielle Pletka takes a look at the Biden administration’s approach to Iran.

• Resident economics guru and author of the Capitolism newsletter, Scott Lincicome, joined Sarah and Declan on the Dispatch Podcast on Friday to discuss libertarianism’s critics on the right, the American Rescue Plan, the future of Republican economics, and how the COVID-19 pandemic has—and hasn’t—thrown global supply chains into disarray.

• In his Friday G-File, Jonah examines the benefits and downsides of cultural and social bubbles. “In one sense, I like bubbles. In fact, I want more bubbles,” he writes. “I want America to be a really interesting place to drive across, because I want America to be thick with different kinds of communities that serve the needs of people who live in them. If I had my way, America would be like the interior of a giant sponge: a vast honeycomb of semi-permeable bubble-spaces.”

• David focuses on Beth Moore’s departure from the Southern Baptist Convention—and what it means for the church—in his Sunday French Press. “The truly important emerging divisions in the Evangelical church aren’t just theological or ideological,” he writes. “They’re also dispositional and temperamental.” And on Friday, David wrote about (🔒) his experience earlier in the week conversing on Clubhouse with some of his haters.

• For last week’s Mop-Up(🔒), Andrew spoke with Republican Georgia election official Gabe Sterling about House Democrats’ H.R. 1 proposal. “It’s basically stepping on what has historically and constitutionally been a state power forever,” he said.

• In Friday’s Uphill (🔒), Haley writes about a bipartisan effort to make it easier for Uyghurs and other oppressed Muslim minorities from Xinjiang to apply to the U.S. government as refugees. She also previews an upcoming legislative package related to China. “It’s about investing in our values, and it’s about investing in economic statecraft and ensuring that China pays the price for predatory actions,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Bob Menendez told reporters.

Let Us Know

The Grammy Awards were last night, but the even more prestigious TMDies are this morning: What were your favorite songs and albums released the past year?

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Haley Byrd Wilt (@byrdinator), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Ryan Brown (@RyanP_Brown), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).