For Whom the Bell Tweets

Do this week’s national presidential polling averages doom Donald Trump’s chance at winning the election? ...

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Do this week’s national presidential polling averages doom Donald Trump’s chance at winning the election? Joe Biden has maintained a steady national polling lead of 6 to 9 points for months now, with no signs of letting up as we approach November 3. The latest CNN, NBC, and Rasmussen polls from this week show Biden in a 16-, 14-, and 12-point lead, respectively. “Even if [these polls] are outliers on the top number,” Jonah says, “The unspoken story about all of this is Biden is running away with it with seniors.” Trump won seniors decisively in 2016 and a Democrat hasn’t won the demographic since former presidential candidate Al Gore in 2000. All things considered, our podcast hosts warn that this could be one of the biggest presidential sweeps since Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole in 1996. Tune in for a conversation about the right’s transition to online social media trolling, the president’s Twitter addiction, and tonight’s upcoming vice presidential debate.

Show Notes:

–Post-debate Dispatch Live tonight, 30 day free trial at The Dispatch, CNN poll showing Biden in a 16-point lead, NBC poll showing Biden in a 14-point lead, Rasmussen poll showing Biden in a 12 -point lead, “4 Funny Feelings about 2020” by Tim Alberta in Politico,

–“Fan Service Is Not Serving Trump Well” by Jonah Goldberg in The Dispatch.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Faraday

    Sarah, you and Dave elude that the “ disclosure of classified information, re the Hillary email server, does not timing of the acts also have a bearing? Even if Trump declassifies the documents inn2020, the act in question occurred far earlier. I believe that if someone discusses the Manhattan Project now they would not be charged with revealing classified information that would’ve landed them in a federal facility in 1945.

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  2. Avatar photo
    Tiffw

    Sarah is the coolest! Loved the stamp question. We stocked up on Coast Guard stamps when they came out, because we're a Coast Guard family. I stocked up on the bioluminescent life and Andrew Wyeth stamps to mail my oldest's graduation announcements. I have shark stamps for my son and the art of magic stamps for my youngest. I love choosing stamps based on who I am mailing something to. Sarah played viola in High School and started on the viola. Now we find out she loves octopuses?!?!? My college student is going to start turning her into her hero character in her college animation classes...........

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  3. Jay Sulzmann

    Just a note about the "Gaetzification" of the House GOP: I think it's a big problem and there are definitely a lot of less-Trumpy House Republicans who are calling it quits or losing their seats to Democrats. But I think some of the fears of the House GOP becoming a Freedom Caucus-dominated rump party, especially if Trump loses, are a bit overblown. If you look down the roster of Republican members on the most legislatively important committees (Appropriations, Energy & Commerce, Ways & Means), the vast majority are still largely low-profile, traditionally conservative, policy-oriented "workhorse" members. The Gaetz/Jordan types are over-represented on committees like Judiciary and Oversight that tend to feature high-profile televised hearings, so it's easy to get a skewed view of the overall picture. There are also a lot of newer Republican members who are getting involved with more constructive groups like the Problem Solvers and the For Country Caucus. I'll confess I don't follow all of their Twitter feeds, so maybe some of them are out there posting MAGA memes, but I actually think there are seeds of a healthier post-Trump House GOP -- would love to see more Dispatch coverage of some of these House Republicans who are actually doing good and constructive work that gets drowned out by the cable news darlings.

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  4. Avatar photo
    Adicesa14

    Including 2008, I voted for the candidate that I considered the least harmful, except once. In other words, I have supported only one of 8 candidates (including 2020) yet voted in each election (I recently cast a 2020 mail-in ballot). I suspect many other voters could tell a similar tale. (Aside: Our process for selecting candidates is abysmal, but that’s another topic.) I am suggesting many polling responders, more than ever before, are impetuous, like me. They retain this impulsiveness until they cast their spontaneous votes. So, it could be that polls are simply out-of-focus ‘snap-shots.’

    Regarding phone usage, like many others, I will not answer a call from an unidentified caller. That habit arose from a distaste for robocalls. Now, if someone could develop a statistical method for who we folks are, perhaps polling data would improve.

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  5. Avatar photo
    Patrick O'Rouke

    Really enjoyed the twitter-bashing. As far as I'm concerned, that horse should be beaten into pieces so small you'd need a microscope to see them.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Patrick O'Rouke

      Also, re: Steve's observation about the irony of a Hayek stamp, that would pale in comparison to a Lysander Spooner stamp. That one would be right up there with the postal inspector arresting Bannon on a Chinese billionaire's yacht.

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  6. ROBERT

    Just got a chance to listen- after the VP debate, which I did not watch. And after the Dispatch post debate which I have yet to watch.
    My guess is Pence came across as a normal adult which in my mind makes Trump look even worse. But even if he did not, while listening to this podcast my thoughts were that once Republicans abandoned "adultism" they were doomed in the long run. Childish behavior was fun for awhile but it's now coming back to haunt them. In my view Republicans were the party of rational adults with high integrity and strong moral values. Once they abandoned that, what really is left? We may be beginning to see.

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  7. Amy Jeanne

    I'm curious if anyone listening has been polled or would answer a poll if asked. Who are they polling? I agree with Sarah that people are not likely to answer polls and I think that there probably is a partisan gap. Thank you.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Patrick O'Rouke

      I got a text poll for the runoff in GA-9. I responded, and in a way that probably caused the pollster to scratch their head and think about throwing the response out of the database. It was honest, though. I told them I was very conservative but had negative views of both of the candidates in the runoff.

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  8. Brad

    The correct answer to the stamp question is H.L. Mencken.

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  9. PM

    I'm with the octopi and willing to put a stamp on it. Brenda Shaughnessy has written a poetry book about an octopus takeover. However, not a book to please conservatives.

    I could go with another Reagan stamp.

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  10. Pedro Goulart

    Re: the direction of the GOP after a Trump loss, I'm not familiar with research on this, but I would be on the camp that thinks the GOP will moderate, not radicalize. Radicalization in American politics happens mostly through the primary process, and it depends on outside, organized forces driving this. In the Obama era it was a grassroots movement (the Tea Party), now it's POTUS himself. Without any such forces, I see the party drifting, but not hardening. Also, big losses matter.
    The case of the Labour Party in the UK since their huge loss last year seems an useful parallel.

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