Will Taiwan Fight?

The China factor.

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Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, joins Executive Editor Adam O’Neal to discuss how the U.S. and China manage their differences over Taiwan. Also:

-Taiwan’s relationship with Trump and Biden
-China’s military transformation
-The significance of 2049

Show Notes:

–Bonnie Glaser’s profile for the German Marshall Fund

-U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis

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Comments (6)
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  1. Avatar photo
    Seth B

    These short interviews Adam conducts about international affairs are excellent. More please.

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  2. R. James

    The analysis that Xi does not see unifying Taiwan with mainland China or accomplishing National Rejuvenation as a legacy issue is questionable. Given that Xi has repeatedly over the last year told his armed forces and his people to prepare for war by 2027 (deadline was previously 2035), and to "struggle" for Taiwan and that National Rejuvenation will not be a "walk in the park", it would seem like the rhetoric of a leader preparing his country for war. In speeches in 2013 and 2019, Xi gives the impression that he will be the leader to deliver on National Rejuvenation and that it cannot be passed on to the next generation. I think there is more than enough evidence to demonstrate that Xi intends to complete National Rejuvenation, which includes the unification of Taiwan with the mainland, on his watch.

    Given that Taiwanese public opinion opposes reunification by a wide margin, it would seem that force is the only way that could be achieved in the near to midterm. Furthermore, not only is Xi (70) running out of time, but China is also running out of time given the strong demographic and economic headwinds facing the country in the long term. For Xi's China, if "National Rejuvenation" will ever occur, it needs to occur in the next decade.

    After the events of the last century, not to mention the last year, people should sit up and take notice of a revanchist totalitarian leader complaining about his "struggle" and about past national humiliation, and seeking to cure it by acquiring the territory of his neighbor. A strong deterrence not only rests with Taiwan able to defend itself, but also with the US able to come to Taiwan's defense. A strong deterrence is the best way to convince Xi that today is not the day to invade.

    Unfortunately, the Biden Administration does not seem to be taking a hard enough line on deterrence or military preparedness. And we wonder why the PLA is becoming more aggressive in the strait and the CCP is not responding in kind to the Biden Administration's diplomatic overtures? They are not seeking a peaceful resolution apart from complete capitulation to their position. Si vis pacem, para bellum

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    1. Georgeb51

      Hell yes.

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  3. P Satter

    Insightful and informative interview. Thank you.

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  4. Avatar photo
    Cthocas

    I’m enjoying Adam’s bite-sized interviews. Keep them coming!

    Though I am wondering if they should be under their own feed, unless the flagship feed is intended as a jumble (why not put TD Live’s recording in it, then?).

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  5. Avatar photo
    Rjosephpaquette

    Good review of the history and the current status of Taiwan. Well done. I found the whole question of would Taiwan even put up a fight interesting.

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