GOP Meets Limits to Donald Trump’s Victimhood Appeal

Trump and Republicans are failing to distinguish most voters from MAGA die-hards.

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Former President Donald Trump signs items for a crowd of supporters at the Fort Dodge Senior High School on November 18, 2023, in Fort Dodge, Iowa. (Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

Conventional wisdom among Democrats holds that President Joe Biden is being victimized by the mainstream media. 

Republicans—for whom disdain for the media is practically an article of faith—may be surprised to hear Democrats complain about “press coverage that unduly reflects GOP frames.” 

And yet, as many Democrats try to puzzle out why the incumbent is locked, even slightly behind, in a tight race with former President Donald Trump, many come back to the idea of “false equivalency” in coverage of the two presumptive nominees. In this telling, it is not that Biden’s age isn’t an issue, but that the news media gives equal weight to Biden’s infirmity and Trump’s misconduct. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    David Lesieur

    I can't wait to read the taglines people came up with for this week's photo!

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    BillAZ

    I was amused by the graph showing support for Trump lowest among atheists and agnostics(25%) as opposed to Evangelicals/Catholics(48%/42%). After hearing my brother-in-law protest that "our country was founded on biblical principles..." in defense of Trump and then reading that currently eight states ban atheists from holding public office it seems "godless Commies" are still a thing.

    It's of course unenforceable because of that pesky Constitution but I suppose a Christian Nationalist can dream.

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      Mandy B.

      I'm not a Christian yet I'm much more loyal to this country's founding and meaning than Trump will ever be.

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    2. Rick REEDER

      LOTS to quibble about here. One important point: our country was NOT founded on biblical principles. Half the 10 (or 12) commandments are not illegal and those that are illegal are mostly illegal everywhere in the world. The Bible mostly does not address governments. It focuses on moral stories and right living - and these are personal.
      Now, it is true one can find justification for almost anything in the Bible. Slavery - yes. Killing, including women and children - yes. Stealing land - yes. Bigamy - yes. Our country is not based on these either.

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  3. Dancrist13

    "The 2024 Republican primary campaign wasn’t so much between Trump and his inter-party rivals, but between Trump and his many enemies, chiefly Biden."

    I think this was supposed to be "intra-party rivals" as those would be other Republicans; inter-party rivals are outside the Republican Party.

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    🐝 BusyBusyBee 🐝

    Biden holds daily public events in places to which he travels. Donald sits in MAL and takes meetings, rants on his crappy app,, goes to court and holds rallies when someone else picks up the tab to do so (Moreno in Ohio, for example. Donald was scheduled to give a speech elsewhere but Moreno offered to pick up the tab for him to speak in Ohio before the primary).

    To continue to ding Biden on his “infirmities” while not pointing out that there is only one candidate out traveling the country campaigning - and president-ing - is disingenuous at best.

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      Thewalks

      In the NBA, both candidates would be accused of load management.

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  5. Zephyrus

    So if Trump says he needs a landslide in 2024 so it can't be rigged, he tacitly admits that he did not, in fact, win in a landslide in 2020 as he previously claimed on multiple occasions? Therefore, he admits that he lied. Gonna use that if I get a chance.

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      Kmregan7

      Good luck a when talking with Trump supporters they rarely like it when you’re to point out the illogic of their positions. “The election was rigged!”
      “So you’re saying that all the Republicans who win really lost since the ballots were fake/counted wrong/switched?”
      “No! Trump won though.”

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      1. Avatar photo
        Scarlette Tarte

        Any viewing of Jordan Klepper's interviews with Trump supporters will illustrate just how easy it is to trip up MAGA with logic, and how much they hate it.

        I know these videos just show the worst, but they are illustrative for how bad the worst is of MAGA.

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  6. Sai Ayila

    Hi Chris, I think you are reading too much into the ill timed poll numbers of Larry Hogan when primary isn't even over yet. Like u mentioned for trump and Biden it's too early to read into polls for Hogan. Here a few examples of how these ill timed pollsters were often wrong. See the following examples Phil bredesan vs Marsha Blackburn, Steve Bullock v Steve daines Linda lingle Marie hizino https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/05/tennessee-us-senate-2018-poll-phil-bredesen-marsha-blackburn/485649002/ https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/2020-election-take-back-senate-montana-steve-bullock-daines-a9500651.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-WB-35221

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    Mudskipper

    Evangelicals remind me a bit of an insecure spouse who, out of fear his wife might leave him for someone else, attempts to control her movements, driving a further wedge between them and ultimately destroying his marriage.

    Evangelicals' support of Trump is driving a wedge between them and the rest of America. It is damaging their reputation and their moral authority.

    Pew has conducted surveys in 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2023 on how Americans feel about different religious groups in America. There is a clear decline in the regard and warmth with which Americans view Evangelicals. Because Pew keeps changing how the surveys are conducted, it is hard to do a complete apples-to-apples comparison. But even so, you can see the decline.

    In 2014, Jews, Catholics, and Evangelicals were held in high regard, with 63%, 62%, and 61% of Americans, respectively, feeling warmth towards them. In 2017, Americans felt warmer towards all religious groups--even Muslims and atheists--except Evangelicals. They stayed steady at 61% warmth, but lost ground relative to the other groups. Pew noted that the reason they didn't lose more ground is that Evangelicals, of course, felt very warm towards their own group. The 2019 survey was too different to make comparisons easy. But the 2023 survey showed another significant decline in Americans' warmth toward Evangelicals. Jews, Catholics, and Mainline Protestants were held in a significantly more positive than negative light (+28, +20, +16 percentage points), whereas Evangelicals were only viewed +2 percentage points more positive than negative. And if you removed from the results people's opinions of their own religious group, the results were even worse. Jews, Catholics, and Mainline Protestants were still viewed more positively than negatively. But Evangelicals were judged much more harshly by folks who didn't identify as Evangelical: they had a net negative favorability of -14%.

    I think we are seeing the effect of the rise of Christian Nationalism and the Evangelical support of Trump. The harder this group tries to hold on to cultural power, the more it will slip from their grasp. Trump might win this next election, but it will end up being a phyrric victory for American Evangelicals.

    Here is the 2023 survey:

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2023/03/15/americans-feel-more-positive-than-negative-about-jews-mainline-protestants-catholics/

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    1. Mattfrommo

      Might this have something to do with the fact that almost every time a media source uses the word 'evangelical' it is in a negative light? The word is almost a pejorative at this point. I know many people who go to churches that fit into the evangelical category most broadly understood. Almost none of those people consider themselves evangelical. The word has acquired a rather negative connotation, not I think by accident.

      Also worth noting that the evangelical support of Trump may be more a function of a third category: age. Both evangelicals and Trump voters are, on average, older than the population in general. I have not seen super recent polling data, but for a long time Trump was doing pretty poorly with younger evangelicals. Among young evangelicals that I know, a few may be voting for him, but almost none of them like him. The more devout they are, the less they like him.

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        Mudskipper

        I'd agree that the term Evangelical could be used to describe very different kinds of people, including people who view Trump as a deeply immoral man based on their religious beliefs and who would never vote for him. These people might deeply regret the entanglement of Trump and Evangelicalism.

        Unfortunately, all we have to go by when it comes to these kinds of surveys is self-identification. So what the larger American society sees is that self-identified Evangelicals are the largest portion of Trump's base. And that many of the people who appear to be supporting a form of authoritarian Christian Nationalism are self-identified Evangelicals. It is this group of self-identifying Evangelicals I am talking about.

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        LBernard

        I would argue that evangelical gaining a negative light is due to the actions of self-proclaimed evangelicals. So long as Trump supporters continue to call themselves 'Evangelical', the term will be tainted by their actions. I see nothing wrong with people choosing to ditch the evangelical label in favor of something else, it's a natural result of not wanting their witness to be associated with that taint.

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      Scarlette Tarte

      Best of all, atheists see how bad Trump is by the highest percentage.

      Jews, black Protestants, agnostics, atheists. I am in good company.

      Evangelical Protestants have an outsized hold on American politics, but hopefully you are right, and this support of Trump and Christian Nationalism causes them to lose some of that grip. So many Americans of other persuasions just don't see the world the way they do.

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    3. Bobby D

      I can definitely say that my views of evangelicals has plummeted. When your most notable adherents are Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan, it suggests that there’s something rotten at the center of the movement. As Hoffer noted, every movement eventually becomes a business and then becomes a racket. Evangelicalism has surely reached the stage of being a racket. It just needs to go away.

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      1. J. Everett Schubert

        As an evangelical myself, I don't necessarily disagree. It troubles me deeply. I keep reminding myself that it's not God's fault that His professed fan club can be so irksome at times.

        At least we have Dr. Francis Collins in our camp. A brilliant scientist, respected by the mainstream, and also an evangelical. But he's about the one influential, mainstream evangelical that comes to mind who didn't gain fame through politics (i.e. - GW Bush) or preaching (i.e. - Billy Graham.)

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        1. Bobby D

          I guess I’m curious as to why the minority of sane evangelicals don’t break off from those who are mainly interested in the culture wars.

          I’d view myself as theologically orthodox (small-o), but generally cosmopolitan in my cultural outlook. I disagree with the efforts of the progressive left to force cosmopolitanism onto people by coercive means. But I’ve lived in multiple countries, work for a multi-national company based in NYC, and reside in a fairly diverse community. So, my life experiences sort of force the cosmopolitanism onto me.

          But there’s no Christian religious movement that fits that combination. Most mainline churches are theologically heterodox, but are largely pro-cosmopolitan. Evangelical churches are theologically orthodox, but are largely anti-cosmopolitan. In fact, for most evangelical churches, the anti-cosmopolitanism seems like a more consistent feature than the theological orthodoxy.

          I’d like to see the evangelicals who are less enthusiastic about the culture wars break out on their own and leave the culture warriors behind. I attended Park Street Church in Boston when I was in college. I liked it, but never found another similar evangelical church elsewhere.

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  8. Trichwages

    Pork Flew, Heads Rolled. Love it! LOL.
    Interesting and informative as always.

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  9. Mirabelle

    It's true that Biden's smaller infractions are pounced on with more relish than Trump's larger ones, but the reason isn't some kind of unfairness. It's because Trump's infractions, whether verbal or material, are no longer news because they are too frequent.

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  10. RS

    Saturdays are even better with some Stirewalt. Always informative, witty, and refreshingly free of horsepucky. And the caption contests are hilarious (nice work people!).

    Thanks very, very much.

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