The Morning Dispatch: The Great 2020 People Count

Happy Wednesday! Reminder that Dispatch Live is back TONIGHT at 8:45 p.m. ET to preview President Biden’s address to Congress. Sarah, Steve, David, and Jonah will then watch the speech (and GOP Sen. Tim Scott’s rebuttal—a slight change of plan!), and go live again five minutes after everything concludes to break it all down. More details on how to join can be found here.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) updated its guidance for vaccinated people yesterday, saying that those two weeks past their final COVID-19 vaccine dose can “participate in outdoor activities and recreation without a mask, except in certain crowded settings and venues.” A graphic breaks down which activities the CDC deems to be safest, less safe, and least safe.

• President Biden signed an executive order yesterday that will require federal contractors to pay their employees a minimum wage of at least $15 an hour by early 2022, and indexed to inflation thereafter.

• The FBI announced yesterday it was opening a civil rights investigation into the fatal police shooting of 42-year-old Andrew Brown Jr. in North Carolina last week. According to an independent autopsy commissioned by his family, Brown was shot four times in the arm and once in the back of his head as law enforcement officers arrested him on felony drug charges.

• The Senate on Tuesday voted 49-45—entirely along party lines, with several senators absent—to confirm Colin Kahl as undersecretary of defense for policy.

• President Biden announced on Tuesday his intent to nominate Ed Gonzalez, the sheriff of Texas’ Harris County, to serve as the next director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

• The United States confirmed 50,680 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday per the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, with 3.7 percent of the 1,365,160 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 712 deaths were attributed to the virus on Tuesday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 573,378. According to the Centers for Disease Control, 33,927 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19. Meanwhile, 1,639,215 COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered yesterday, with 141,751,857 Americans having now received at least one dose.

Gradations of Population Stagnation

331,449,281. That’s how many Americans there were on April 1, 2020, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released earlier this week—up 7.4 percent from the 308,745,538 there were in 2010.

“Despite many challenges, our nation completed a census for the 24th time,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said. This was likely in reference not only to the pandemic shaking up the Bureau’s methods and timeline, but a series of legal battles waged by the Trump administration over whether undocumented immigrants should be included in the count (they ultimately were).

The Census process dates all the way back to the Constitution, which outlines an “enumeration” process that shall take place every ten years and be used to determine the size of each state’s House of Representatives delegation.

The Constitution also mandates that the ratio of population to representative not dip below 30,000-to-1, which may have been a concern in the late-18th century but is far from one now. Following the 1790 census, each member of the House of Representatives served an average of just over 34,000 constituents. That number has, as of this week, ballooned to 761,169, renewing calls from some political scientists to expand the size of the House.

“Right now, the American public correctly understands that their voice is irrelevant to their legislator,” Lyman Stone, a demographer at the American Enterprise Institute and Institute for Family Studies, told The Dispatch. “There are 700,000 other people in their district; their legislator is not listening to them, they cannot make a difference. But smaller districts, individual people will matter more, and as a result, we can expect people to be more involved in governance, participate more, and we can expect the legislators to be more responsive.”

That reform isn’t coming anytime soon, but the 2020 Census will have a more immediate impact politically, reshaping the makeup of the House of Representatives—and in turn the Electoral College—on the margins for the next decade. Texas will gain two seats following the apportionment results, and Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon will add one. To keep the 435-member balance, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will all lose a congressional district.

The Census’ documentation of Americans’ migration westward and to the Sun Belt only confirmed existing trends. “People are moving to states with affordable housing and decent standard of living, states that offer a good quality of life for the price,” Stone said. “That relates to taxes, and climate, and income potential, and employment, and all sorts of things.”

But some who study this topic were expecting the shifts to be even more pronounced. “I’m most surprised that Arizona did not pick up a congressional seat; it seemed pretty clear from the estimates that it would,” Dave Wasserman, House Editor at the Cook Political Report, told The Dispatch. “But the fact that it didn’t, and the fact that Texas and Florida gained fewer seats than we expected, and that California did lose its 53rd district, makes me wonder whether there was a systemic low count in Hispanic areas compared to population estimates.”

Ron Jarmin, acting director of the Census Bureau, attempted to quell such concerns in a press conference on Monday. “We did do a very thorough job, especially in those areas, making sure that we counted everybody,” he said. “Some folks’ projections might have been based on slightly higher population growth projections.”

“The estimates of population for states that the Census arrived at from their 2020 count had some very large differences from the population estimates they had been producing between censuses,” Stone added. “And on average, these gaps were appreciably larger than the gaps we observed in the 2010 census.”

“I do worry about count quality in some cases,” he continued. “However, now that the count is in, there’s not much you can do about that.”

That’s true, but it won’t stop some politicians in states hurt by the count from making a stink. New York, for example, lost its 27th congressional district by a miniscule 89-person margin. “Do I think [the Census] was accurate to within 89? No,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday. “And we’re looking at legal options, because when you’re talking about 89, that could be a minor mistake in counting.”

As electoral redistricting lawyer and New York Law School fellow Jeff Wice told Politico, however, states have challenged Census counts for decades—and are rarely successful. “Congress has delegated the power to the Commerce Department on how to count people,” he said, leading courts to grant the Census Bureau “a lot of leeway.”

What happens now? A mad dash in states across the country to redraw congressional districts based on the new population data before the filing deadlines for next year’s midterm elections. Wasserman broke down how the process will play out over at the Cook Political Report:

Republicans have the final authority to draw congressional lines in 187 districts, down from 219 seats in 2011. Democrats will have final authority in states totaling 75 districts, up from 44 in 2011. New bipartisan commissions passed by voters in Colorado, Michigan and Virginia bring the number of commission-drawn districts to 121 up from 88 ten years ago. And there are 46 districts in states where control is split between the parties, down from 77.

The ramifications of Monday’s numbers, however, are not just political—they’re cultural. That 7.4 percent population increase from 2010 to 2020? Essentially tied with the Great Depression-laden 1930s for the slowest decade of growth in American history.

Stone attributed the stagnation to a variety of interrelated factors. “The difficulty facing young American adults in achieving the stable life that prior generations achieved is the driving force,” he said. “[Young people] have to have more experience before getting a stable job than prior generations were expected to have, which means we basically expect them to wait longer before stable adulthood begins. This has knock-on effects of delaying marriage, delaying childbearing, delaying asset accumulation, delaying homeownership. All these things get delayed, and as they get delayed, some of them never happen at all.”

But the U.S. learned on Tuesday it isn’t the only global superpower whose population growth is falling off. The Financial Times reported yesterday that the Chinese Communist Party has delayed the release of its census data from last year, in part because it will show China’s population actually declined year-over-year for the first time in several decades.

Iran and the U.S. Meet at Sea

Opponents of Iran’s regional hostilities tend to draw on the country’s many proxy militias, missile development and warfare, and ever-growing nuclear cache as points of concern. Less often noted is its longstanding naval aggression in the Persian Gulf, which came to the fore earlier this week when three vessels of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) came within about 200 feet of two American ships.

The confrontation, which took place in international waters, occurred after the Iranian fast inshore attack crafts “failed to exercise due regard for the safety of other vessels” as they “rapidly approached” a U.S. Navy patrol ship and U.S. Coast Guard patrol boats conducting routine operations. According to a press release from the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, the two American vessels sent multiple sound signals to the approaching ships before one, the USS Firebolt, fired warning shots.

“The U.S. is not an aggressor; our naval forces remain postured in a non-provocative manner that exemplifies professionalism, incentivizes adherence to international law and customs, and persuades others to emulate our actions,” the fleet’s statement added. “Our forces are trained, however, to conduct effective defensive measures when necessary.” 

An encounter earlier this month marked the first time this year that U.S. and Iranian military vessels have neared collision, and Monday marked the first time in nearly four years that an American craft has been compelled to fire on an Iranian ship. The timing is notable. As negotiations to curb Iran’s nuclear program resume in Vienna this week, the IRGC’s renewed naval aggression targeting the U.S. calls into question its sincerity in reaching a diplomatic agreement.

Further complicating the script of the talks was the leak of a confidential three-hour interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif earlier this week, during which he vented about the IRGC’s outsize influence in the country’s international affairs at the expense of his department. The armed forces’ heavy involvement in the nuclear file effectively dispels the myth of Iranian “moderates” running the show in Vienna. 

Jason Brodsky, a senior analyst at Iran International, argues these are considerations American diplomats must account for as they seek to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “U.S. negotiators and Europeans need to ask themselves: Does the Iranian foreign ministry have the ability to get a deal done with the United States? Does it have the bandwidth to do so?”

House GOP Leadership Fails to Unite Behind Cheney at Orlando Retreat

As we mentioned yesterday, House Republicans have been in Orlando this week for a conference retreat, and we shipped Audrey down to Florida to get the scoop. She came back with a great piece—up on the site today—about Republicans’ efforts to present a unified front, and how their deep disagreements over Donald Trump and January 6 have hampered their ability to actually do so. From her story:

“I think that our message is unity,” said House GOP conference vice chair Mike Johnson. Many of those in attendance here have voiced that tagline repeatedly. But it’s far from the reality. It didn’t take much probing to make clear that deep fissures remain in the House GOP conference.

Despite public assurances of a unified front against the Biden administration, the weekend underscored existing fault lines within the House Republican conference. Members are divided over what role former President Donald Trump should play in the party post-January 6. They’re also at odds over how to address a growing contingent of fringe, conspiracy theory-friendly voices in the conference. The rift reaches to the very top of GOP leadership.

When The Dispatch asked House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy if he will campaign enthusiastically for the third-ranking House Republican, Liz Cheney, in her re-election race, he demurred. “I haven’t talked to her about it,” he said. Cheney was one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump on the charge that he incited the storming of the Capitol. Her firm stance against the former president in the months since has put her at odds with many members of the conference, including McCarthy and other GOP leaders.

When we asked Johnson, the No. 4 House Republican, whether reelecting Cheney will be a critical moment for the future of the GOP, he said: “Oh, we all have our own races to run, I don’t know about that.” And when we asked Gary Palmer, the No. 7 House Republican, about Trump’s ongoing antagonism toward Cheney, he said: “I’m not going to—as policy chairman—let the media try to divide us by bringing in issues relative to any other member of Congress, or to the former president.”

Worth Your Time

• As President Biden’s time in office nears its 100-day mark, NBC News’ Sahil Kapur has an interesting reported piece looking at how the Democratic Party has governed over the last several months, and how legislators on the left are endeavoring not to repeat what they view as the “mistakes” of Barack Obama’s presidency. “Obama took office in 2009 with huge congressional majorities after he captivated a progressive movement with the prospect of transformative change,” Kapur writes. “Twelve years later, Biden took the baton with wafer-thin margins on Capitol Hill on a platform of healing a nation poisoned by President Donald Trump’s reign. But in a strange twist, it is Biden, 78, an old-fashioned moderate, who is drawing liberal praise and comparisons to President Franklin D. Roosevelt, while Democrats cite the actions of Obama, the younger and charismatic first Black president, as a cautionary tale.”

• With the CDC relaxing some of its guidelines as vaccinations bring us ever closer to crushing the pandemic, the hot takesters are gearing up for a new phase in masking culture war. But Josh Barro has devised an eminently reasonable approach to the next few weeks over at Insider. “If you want to keep routinely wearing a mask outside after you’ve been vaccinated, I think you’re being overly cautious,” he writes. “But it’s your face we’re talking about here, and if you want to keep wearing a mask on the sidewalk, that’s your business. That’s the attitude everyone should take. If we can walk past people wearing cargo shorts or crop-tops on the street without our heads exploding, we can also tolerate some unnecessary masks.”

Presented Without Comment

Also Presented Without Comment

Also Also Presented Without Comment

Toeing the Company Line

• In the latest edition of The Sweep, Sarah takes a look at the Census results, the coming Democratic and Republican campaign messages, special elections in Louisiana and Texas, why so many “mainstream” cultural institutions in America lean left, and the future of the College Republicans. Stick around for Chris Stirewalt’s take on Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan’s foray into the Ohio U.S. Senate race.

• President Biden will address a joint session of Congress tonight to cap his first 100 days and sell the next phases of his agenda, and Haley’s Uphill yesterday provided an update on the next big domino to fall: infrastructure. Will Democrats actually negotiate with Republicans this time around? “I’m an impatient person. We waited four years,” Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin told The Dispatch Monday.

• Remnant fan favorite A.B. Stoddard rejoined Jonah on the podcast yesterday for some exceedingly rank punditry. The pair discuss how President Biden has fared in his first 100 days, Donald Trump’s lingering presence within the GOP, and why both parties can’t help but be nutty. Tune in for political eggheadery, but stick around for an uplifting discussion about dogs, and A.B.’s new puppy!

• In his Tuesday French Press(🔒), David tries to counter all of the doom-and-gloom, “the country is over”-style thinking that’s become so pervasive in some quarters of the right by sharing some lessons he picked up from former President George W. Bush’s new book on immigration. “If America is circling the drain, then why do so many millions of people still see it as a beacon of hope?” he asks. “It’s not because they want to tip the balance of power between red and blue. They see a nation that still provides its citizens with freedom and opportunity at a scale rarely (if ever) seen in the history of the world.”

Let Us Know

If you’re a parent, have you had more or fewer children than your parents did? If you’re not yet a parent, what do you envision the size of your future family to be? What factors contributed/will contribute to your decision?

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Haley Byrd Wilt (@byrdinator), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Ryan Brown (@RyanP_Brown), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).