The Consolidation Debate

The end for DeSantis, the beginning for Haley?

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Following a strong performance in the first Republican presidential debate, Nikki Haley holds a town hall with Rep. Ralph Norman and South Carolina Rep. Mike Neese in Indian Land, South Carolina, on August 28, 2023. (Photo by Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency /Getty Images)

Today we’re going to pretend that Wednesday night’s second Republican primary debate matters.

It won’t be easy. Have a look at the national polling since the first debate on August 23.

Trump’s lead, already north of 40 points when that debate was held, has grown a bit since.

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  1. James Morphew

    I would take any of these candidates over Trump (well, maybe not Vivek), and I see things I like in most of them. I also see things I dislike, and I have to avoid flushing any of them for small errors, as the public seems to do. However, I am starting to take Haley more seriously, and I agree with Catoggio that DeSantis may have run out of time to regain inertia. I like his record, but his last 6 months of seeming to pander and dance, rather than rise above it all, have been disappointing, while Haley seems much more steady and confident. I still get excited about Scott, but he, too, seems to have little traction.

    I'm afraid I'm hoping and praying for an unexpected event that can re-cast the die and shake loose that Trump-clutching primary gang. I dread having to decide between Trump and Biden.

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      Ben Connelly

      I agree completely except for one point:

      I’m not deciding between Trump and Biden. Neither is worth voting for. I’ll write in a Lysander Spooner/Kevin Williamson ticket.

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  2. Dougrhon

    Haley is not going to get the nomination in the cult domonated GOP. But if she handles herself correctly, she could be poised to pick up the pieces when the broken party eventually expels the cult (or leaves and forms a new party without the cult). She is more than young enough to have other opportunities. In order to do this she cannot support Trump as nominee. She doesn't have to pull a Mitt Romney but she cannot say Trump would be better than the Democrats (Even Biden). If she does this she will be tarred forever as associated with the cult. DeSantis has blown that opportunity. Haley still has it. That is assuming we survive as a nation either a second Trump term or a second Biden term which he will be obviously unable to either complete or fullfill his duties and responsibilities. What a mess.

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    Matmos

    I was pro Tim Scott but at this point I have switched horses to Nikki Haley, something I never thought I would say after all her flip-flopping on Trump. Crossing fingers. Doesn’t seem like this debate changed much though.

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  4. Jack H Wolf

    The only shot against Trump short of imprisoning him, would be for a scenario similar to the 2020 Dem Primary where a crew of front runners- Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and later Bloomberg dropped out and threw their support to Biden. That was what put the nail in Bernie Sanders coffin.
    That is harder to pull off in the R primary as there are many more winner takes all plurality primaries, about 10 of them just added to help Trump who controls the RNC.
    imo the candidate who might really help Haley the most is Tim Scott, and they have always gotten along. Haley appointed Scott to his Senate Post in 2012. If he dropped out before the SC primary and campaigned for her she would have a much stronger chance.

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    Theirnscott

    I have a feeling many of the pro Trump know in their hearts that a 2nd term for Trump is bad for the country. I don’t think these poll numbers are going to hold when they have to vote in the primary.

    If I’m wrong the Republican Party is toast.

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    1. Rblik

      I think you're right. Few Republican politicians are endorsing Trump and so many have jumped off the train since 2020. I have a hard time believing these primary polls will hold up come election/caucus day.

      Thanks Allah for starting to explain why you support Nikki and not just bashing DeSantis 24/7. They are very similar on much, and very different on some key items. Hey, I'm all for weeding the others out already and just have a Nikki v. Ron battle for the anti-Trump vote.

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        Theirnscott

        I’ve recorded the debate and will watch when the Braves/cubs game is done. I’ve always felt Nikki was too slick by half but she’s smart and has great political instincts. But she’s our best hope now.

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    Teresaklopfer

    Nikki is THE candidate who can beat Trump and Biden in my opinion. She is an actual conservative who will make America strong again. She needs to swat Vivek away, sorrowfully comment on some of DeSantis’s poor moves, and gut Trump like only a southern woman can (bless his heart.) She needs to acknowledge that he introduced issues that voters cared about like immigration and China. Then, she needs to show that he failed to make real lasting progress on those issues and others because of his self-obsession, and poor statesmanship. She also needs to continue to make the case for beating Putin in Ukraine.

    Someone (Christie?) needs to illustrate how utterly without honor Donald Trump is and show that he is not for America but for himself.

    Do not give up, fellow Conservatives! Give time, money and your voice to save our country. Speak up for what is right. This week I saw a 27 year old woman (Hutchinson) who was a Trump administration insider give an interview and voice her opinion that Trump is the greatest threat to democracy in our lifetimes. I hear she had to be in hiding to some degree for a year. How can we be any less courageous in our little platoons?

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    1. Dougrhon

      I am still praying for a miracle.

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  7. Bob Cherichella

    Nikki’s going to make a terrific president. Yes, she’s walking a tightrope at the moment, don’t underestimate her.
    Governor/Ambassador Haley has brains, backbone and heart. She’s real good at knowing when to lead with which one.
    When the momentum starts to shift Trump may decide to call it a day, he can’t afford to get beat for his business sake. He can’t afford to have his sycophants stay home from the election either. He’s going to get convicted for something at some time, he’s got a bunch better chance of being pardoned by President Haley than President Harris. Now that’s a scary thought.

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  8. John

    It seems that the only objective DeSantis has is to attract support from the lunitic fringe by out trumping trump. That approach is dead. Haley is a breath of fresh air. She is rational and has carefully thought out views that are necessary to solve problems. She says what needs to be said. Am I dreaming? She would make the Republican Party great again.

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  9. KevinN

    Nick, you are getting closer to the right answer/candidate: Nikki Haley. But again I ask, is she ready to drop the gloves and take on Trumpworld. Won't be easy by any measure, especially if she campaigns in a traditional manner.

    Has to start with a take no prisoner assault in Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina? Crazy thing, I think South Carolina would be the toughest one to win.

    Iowa - Get Mike Pence to drop and flip to Nikki & Kim Reynolds to go full Nikki.

    New Hampshire - Get Christie to drop and flip & Chris Sununu to go full Nikki.

    South Carolina - Get Tim Scott to flip & run Clemson national championship season games all day on primary day.

    Probably need to encourage indies and dems pissed at them running Biden, to get an R behind their name on the voter registration, and go out to vote for Nikki on primary day. If 35-40% of Republican primary vote are Trump or bust she has to get creative.

    Lots of big donor money waiting for someone that has the scent of beating Trump to break out. Let's do it!!

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  10. Jvecchione

    You are such a depressive. Nobody has voted. Let's see what Iowa brings. A challenger to an incumbent should be thrilled with 15% of the national electorate and more than that in Iowa-in September! There are three tickets out of Iowa. If Desantis is ahead of Pence, Pence will drop out and endorse someone. Pence is selling the true Reaganite flame and his people will go to DeSantis I think. Whatever happens in Godless New Hampshire Nikki and Scott split the South Carolina vote along with DeSantis and Trump. One of them at least has to drop out. If DeSantis is in the 30's by then I think Nikki goes DeSantis as she went Rubio. Scott will go Trump or not endorse. Then its head to head all the way to the end with Trump's legal woes and insanity dragging him among all but the true believers. A campaign unfolds over time. Don't get so caught up in the snap shots.

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