GOP Rooting for Chaos in Chicago

It seems as if the presidential race has settled into its course for the next stretch, which is the 24 days between now and the first—and perhaps only—debate between the major party nominees on September 10.

That’s a race former President Donald Trump might win, but probably would lose. He’s trailing by a little, just at the margin where he could still find a path to a narrow Electoral College victory. Given his temperament and the public appetite for something different than the politics of the past eight years, though, you’d have to give the Democrats a small but considerable edge.

Republicans have hopes that next week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago will be a 1968-style disaster in which anti-Israel protesters turn what is supposed to be an infomercial for the new Kamala Harris–Tim Walz ticket into a billboard for urban decay, antisemitism, and chaos. 

They may get their wish. But given how much and for how long Democrats, Chicago and Illinois officials, and the Secret Service have been preparing, Republicans are going to need the anti-Zionists to find a degree of determination and ingenuity heretofore unseen to put the stink on what should otherwise be a four-day festival of “joy.”

There are many differences between the bloodbath convention of 56 years ago and today, but the chief one is that the anti-war protesters of Lincoln Park in 1968 were the vanguard of a mass movement that was actually tearing the Democratic Party apart. Tens of thousands of protesters flooded the city, determined to stop U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War and end the draft to which many of them were subject. 

Democrats then were trying to ram through an unpopular nominee. This time they’ve already rammed through a popular one. Harris is popular among Democrats, and getting more so. A recent Pew Research Center poll found 83 percent of the members of her party have a favorable view of their new nominee. That’s better than the 79 percent of Republicans who feel the same way about Trump. It’s also more than 20 points better than President Joe Biden’s ratings with Democrats on the eve of his departure from the race.

We don’t know what Vice President Hubert Humphrey’s approval numbers were with Democrats in the summer of 1968, but we can be pretty confident that they were … not good. He was getting about 40 percent of the vote in a three-way contest with Sens. Robert Kennedy of New York and Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota. Humphrey moved to a narrow majority in a two-way race with McCarthy after Kennedy was killed by an assassin in June, but it was a very unhappy marriage for Democrats—nothing like the whirlwind romance the party is having with Harris these days.

Democrats may not be as supportive of Israel as the nation as a whole, but they are not nearly as sympathetic to the pro-Palestinian protest movement as the party of their grandparents’ was of the anti-Vietnam activists. As a string of primary losses for anti-Israel candidates shows, Democrats are not hungry for radicalism here. Nor do they perceive the issue as the kind of political liability as the party of 1968 did. It was very obviously opposition to the Vietnam War and the draft that forced President Lyndon Johnson out of the race, whereas Biden breezed through his primaries and was forced out by his obvious infirmity. 

The other missing ingredient that Republicans need is Mayor Richard Daley, who had ruled Chicago with an iron fist for 13 years already when the protests and the convention came to town in 1968. Daley had cracked down hard on the riots that followed the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. that spring, so the city was already in considerable turmoil in the fourth week of August. 

Daley was also a major power player in the national Democratic Party. He was part of the effort inside the convention hall to steamroll opposition to Humphrey, and he was determined not to let outside agitators in the streets disrupt his plans. He would take no chances, and deployed police to quell any insurrection. The resulting “overreaction,” in Daley’s words, left a lasting stain on Humphrey’s already dubious reputation within the party.

There was no Secret Service-approved protest zone and massive security perimeter, and the techniques for crowd control have evolved considerably in the past six decades. If anything, the protesters may end up uniting the party more than dividing it if they end up resorting to tactics of harassment and obstruction. Making flying in or out of O’Hare Airport more difficult is one sure way to turn any group against you.

But maybe, maybe Republicans will get lucky and Chicago will be a disaster for Democrats again. Hope may not be a strategy, but it is about the best Republicans have as they stare down a week that could end in a bounce for the party already in the lead.

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STATSHOT

General Election

Donald Trump: 43.8% (↑ 0.6 points from last week)
Kamala Harris: 46.6%  (↑ 0.4)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: 6.2% (↓ 0.8)

[Average includes: Fox News: Trump 45% – Harris 45% – Kennedy 6%; Pew: Trump 45% – Harris 46% – Kennedy 7%; Marquette Law: Trump: 42% – Harris 50% – Kennedy 6%; Marist/NPR/PBS: Trump 45% – Harris 48% – Kennedy 5%; TIPP: Trump 42% – Harris 44% – Kennedy 7%]

Generic Ballot

Democrats: 47.4% (↑ 1.8 points from last week)

Republicans: 46.8% (↑ 0.6)

[Average includes: Monmouth: 48% Democrats – 46% Republicans; Marquette Law: 52% Democrats – 48% Republicans; Marist/NPR/PBS: 47% Democrats – 45% Republicans; CNBC: 44% Democrats – 47% Republicans; Wall Street Journal: 46% Democrats – 48% Republicans] 

TIME OUT: MARXIST THEORY

New Yorker: “How the body laughs is well understood. … How the brain processes humor remains a mystery. It’s easy to make someone smile or cry by electronically stimulating a single region of the brain, but it’s astonishingly difficult to make someone laugh. The ‘laughter circuit’ is complex and various. Puns are processed on the left side of the brain by gyri, bumpy areas on the surface of the cerebral cortex; more complex, non-wordplay jokes are routed through gyri on the right side of the brain. … One way of thinking about this is that the left side of the brain cognitively ‘sets up’ the joke and the right side emotionally ‘gets it.’ … In a 1981 paper in Brain and Language, researchers … explained, ‘While the left hemisphere might appreciate some of [Groucho Marx’s] puns, and the right hemisphere might be entertained by the antics of Harpo, only the two hemispheres united can appreciate a whole Marx Brothers routine.’ Neither hemisphere, apparently, thinks much of Chico.”

DEM DISTRESS AS DNC PROTESTS LOOM

New York Times: “Thousands of demonstrators are expected in the streets and the parks of Chicago for next week’s Democratic National Convention, most of them to protest the U.S. role in the war in Gaza. But officials are concerned about the potential for a more embarrassing spectacle: prime-time disruptions inside the arena itself. … About 30 uncommitted delegates representing the Democratic primary voters who opposed President Biden … will have unfettered access to make their voices heard. State party leaders, led by Lavora Barnes, the chairwoman of the Michigan Democratic Party, and Ken Martin, the chairman of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota, have for months worked to defuse tensions and head off a high-profile clash. … Those diplomatic efforts, along with the elevation of Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Mr. Biden as the Democratic nominee, have yielded progress. … But the delegates have demands that will almost certainly not be met before the convention begins.”

Harris moves to shore up Arab-American support: NBC News: “Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is hiring Nasrina Bargzie to lead outreach to Muslim and Arab voters … a move focused on a key constituency that soured on President Joe Biden over his support of Israel. … Harris has faced interruptions from pro-Palestinian protesters at recent rallies. … Bargzie will focus on talking to Muslim and Arab communities as voters wait to see whether Harris will lay out a different approach to the Middle East and Israel from Biden’s.”

Poll: Harris pulls ‘double-haters’ as Dem enthusiasm grows: The Hill: “The new Monmouth University poll found the number of ‘double haters’— voters who dislike both candidates — has been cut in half since Harris joined the race. … The new poll found that Harris now has 53 percent of the vote among these Biden-Trump double haters. Eleven percent of those who disliked Biden and Trump said they would vote for the former president. … Monmouth noted that the biggest jump in enthusiasm was among Democrats. With Biden as the presumptive nominee in June, 46 percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about the Trump-Biden rematch. The new poll now shows 85 percent of Democrats who are enthusiastic about a Trump-Harris match-up.” 

Volunteers flock to Harris campaign after big rallies: NBC News: “As Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, crisscrossed the country speaking to packed rallies with thousands of voters, the campaign has also been hard at work signing up volunteers at those events in an effort to ensure victory. Last week in Nevada, 1,000 of the 5,010 volunteer sign-ups were for the next day to join a series of weekly events the campaign holds on Sundays, a campaign official said. The campaign official said the burst of sign-ups made Sunday the biggest day yet for the weekly series. For comparison, the official said, attendance at Sunday’s events was 669% over attendance at the previous one. … In Wisconsin, the campaign had 13,000 conversations with voters over the weekend, and it got more than 1,100 volunteer sign-ups at a rally in Detroit to volunteer.” 

RFK Jr. now hurts Trump more than Harris: Washington Post: “Since the Democratic ticket turned over from Biden to Harris last month, a half-dozen quality polls have tested both a Trump-Harris matchup and a crowded race that included independent and third-party candidates. In all of them, Harris performed better in the crowded race. … When you dig into the more recent polls, you begin to see how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in particular — the only other candidate generally polling higher than 1 percent — is now evidently hurting Trump. … [A Marquette Law poll shows] the independents he takes come at Trump’s expense: Kennedy wins 8 percent of Democratic-leaning independents, compared with 23 percent of Republican-leaning independents.”

SENATE DEMS STAND STRONG IN BATTLEGROUNDS 

Cook Political Report: “New data from the Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group/BSG Swing State Project polling shows Democratic Senate candidates continuing to run strong in every single swing presidential state, far outpacing Vice President Kamala Harris and leading outside the margin of error in races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. … The surge has been particularly large in Nevada, which had been one of Biden’s worst states. … In neighboring Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake 51%-42%. … In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads 50%-42%. … In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick by 13 points, 53%-40%. … The Wisconsin Senate race has remained the most stable since May, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading Republican Eric Hovde 50%-43%. … Given the increased enthusiasm Harris has enjoyed since replacing Biden atop the ticket, it is possible these numbers represent something of a high watermark for Democrats.”

Poll: Rosen up double digits on Brown: Nevada Independent: “A new poll of likely Nevada voters shows Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) with a 12 percentage point lead ahead of her Republican opponent Sam Brown. Rosen received 51.7 percent of support in the poll, while Brown received 39.7 percent. … Though Rosen has consistently led Brown since he announced his bid for Senate, the poll…is one of the best polls for Rosen this cycle. … [Pollster] Woodrow Johnston told The Nevada Independent that he did not anticipate Rosen’s lead to be as wide as it was, but he attributed it partly to a ‘huge spending disparity’ and Trump’s declining popularity. … Johnston said Brown and Trump still have time to make up for lost ground, noting that many voters choose their preferred candidate after Labor Day.” 

Klobuchar heavy favorite for fourth term: Minnesota Star Tribune: “Republican and ex-NBA player Royce White won Tuesday’s primary … and will now challenge Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar in November. … White’s supporters at the GOP state convention backed him despite his controversial past that includes using antisemitic and derogatory slurs to attack critics on social media and using past campaign funds at a strip club and high-end hotels. … White has raised just six figures over the course of his campaign compared to Klobuchar, who has raised more than $11 million this year and entered July with $6.4 million cash on hand. … Without outside help, it could be difficult for White to compete with a well-funded candidate like Klobuchar statewide. Polling also suggests it will be an uphill climb for White.” 

BRIEFLY

Abortion amendment will appear on Arizona ballot—Arizona Mirror

Missouri, too, will vote to enshrine abortion rights in state constitution—AP

Rep. Ilhan Omar beats back moderate primary challenger—Minnesota Star Tribune

WITHIN EARSHOT: PERFECT NUMBERS

“Virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants. … In fact, I’ve heard that substantially more – actually beyond that number of 100%. It’s a much higher number than that.”—Former President Donald Trump gets creative with the percentages at his Thursday press conference in Bedminster, New Jersey. 

MAILBAG

“I have been saying the same thing since Trump entered the political scene and it’s the same words the WSJ uses constantly: ‘He can’t help himself.’ This election and the future of our country is literally dependent on his growing a brain. It’s not likely. Does he not listen to ANYONE?! TRUMP BEAT TRUMP in 2020 and he just may do the same again this year!”—Gary Hofmeister, Indianapolis, Indiana

Mr. Hofmeister,

I don’t think it’s that the former president doesn’t listen to “anyone,” it’s that he doesn’t like to listen to anyone who doesn’t tell him what he wants to hear.

Success in life depends on many things, but a key attribute among people who can achieve enduring success is that they create organizations built around constructive dissent. We all know about Abraham Lincoln’s Team of Rivals but every part of human endeavor offers us similar stories of great leaders who were able to preserve sincere viewpoint diversity among their advisers. Groupthink is so dangerous because it creeps in imperceptibly. The best leaders retain the power of ultimate decision while allowing their subordinates to hash out issues before coming to a final conclusion.

What Trump does is something more like “mommy shopping.” When he doesn’t get the answer he likes from one adviser, he simply goes to others until he hears what he wants to hear. Inside an organization, this creates lots of incentives for ambitious people to not speak the truth and do their duties but rather to tell the boss what he wants to hear with the idea that once they have achieved higher status through flattery, they will be able to achieve a greater good. What they invariably find, though, is that when they try to make that pivot, the fickle leader casts them aside and moves on to the next yes man or yes woman.

Trump’s 2024 primary campaign was absolutely the best political effort of his career. It was well-funded, well-organized, and, relatively speaking, disciplined. He succumbed frequently to bullying and taunting with his Republican rivals, but at key moments was able to stick to the script.

Much of this success can be credited to advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, who adapted traditionally effective campaign techniques to Trump’s unorthodox approach. The moment Trump seemed headed for certain victory after surviving and assassination attempt but before Democrats pulled their summertime switcheroo was the product of many things, including the benefits of Trump being off the trail and under a gag order during a criminal trial, but one obvious factor was having a top-drawer campaign operation.

A good leader would have recognized that the change in the race was substantially due to matters beyond his control, indeed might have understood that going from clear frontrunner to underdog demanded buckling down and refocusing on core advantages.

What Trump is doing, instead, is getting back in the mommy shopping game, bringing back advisers whom professionals like LaCivita and Wiles had worked hard to push out of the operation. For instance, the return of Corey Lewandowski, co-author of a book called Let Trump Be Trump, is the harbinger of not a culture of viewpoint diversity and deliberation, but rather a competition for Trump’s favor. And the best way to get that, of course, is to tell him what he wants to hear.

Trump may yet win this thing, and Democrats are no doubt over-exuberant about their chances, but I suspect the only way the GOP turns the race around is for Trump to get so far down that he becomes desperate and therefore willing, as he was in the fall of 2016, to hear things he does not like and behave himself accordingly.

All best,

c

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CUTLINE CONTEST: THERE’S NO NEED TO FEEL DOWN 

We call it a Cutline Contest because the goal, ideally, is to write a humorous caption for the photo in the style of a news publication—a cutline, in industry parlance. Sometimes, you devils come up with non-cutline cutlines that are too funny to pass up, but when we get a winner that adheres to both the spirit and the letter of the contest, it’s sweeter still:

“Demonstrating her campaign’s struggles, Kari Lake forms the wrong letter as ‘YMCA’ plays in the ballroom before her remarks.”—Allan Rutter, Prosper, Texas

Winner, Lucasfilm Division:
“POWER! UNLIMITED POWER!!!” —Jack Funke, Poplar Bluff, Missouri

Winner, Not Just the President, Also a Member Division:

“Kari Lake describes her increased vigor as spokesperson for Mega-MAGA Red Pill supplement.”—Linda McKee, DuBois, Pennsylvania

Winner, General Mills Division:
“Wheaties … just Wheaties.”—Richard Basuk, New York, New York

Winner, Beat the Press Division:
“Lake welcomes media to knuckle sandwiches”—David Porter, Tampa, Florida

Winner, Tennessee Ernie Ford Division:
“If you see me comin’, better step aside

A lotta men didn’t, a lotta men died

One fist of iron, the other of steel

If the right one don’t get you

Then the left one will”—Bob Goldman, Gilroy, California

Winner, So Much Winning Division:
“I won! Again! And again and again and again!”—Tim Maloney, St. Louis, Missouri

WINGS OF MERCY 

USA Today: “Despite her being convicted of stealing food from kids during the COVID pandemic, Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones offered to cover the $1.5 million worth of chicken wings stolen by a former food service director in exchange for the woman’s release from prison. Vera Liddell, who served in the director role for Harvey School District 152 near Chicago … pleaded guilty on Aug. 9 to the charges and got a nine-year prison sentence, the outlets said, citing prosecutors. … In a social media post Tuesday,  Jones said, ‘I’ll pay for the wings that she stole to get her free.’ The chicken theft operation was discovered in 2023 when an audit found that the district’s food service department exceeded its annual budget by $300,000 halfway through the school year, prosecutors said, according to ABC News.”

Nate Moore contributed to this report.