The Sweep: October Surprise

Campaign Quick Hits

It’s Gonna Be a Bumpy 34 Days: As our own Nick Catoggio said when he posted this in our Slack channel, “​​The polls are catching up to ‘the vibes.’

But, But, But: Nate Cohn at the New York Times puts down a marker that Democrats could maintain control of the House. Sure, the fundamentals of a midterm election with high inflation favor Republicans, but there are plenty of races where Republicans picked divisive candidates and Democrats did a better job on redistricting. As a result, Cohn noted that “on average, Democrats are running a net 3.9 points behind President Biden — a number that’s essentially consistent with a tied national vote (Mr. Biden won by 4.5 points in 2020) — across the 29 districts where there have been polls since Aug. 1.” If that polling holds steady, it would be a tied ball game going into Election Day and Republicans need to pick up five seats to take the House. 

On the other hand, he also added that “Republicans have gained three points across 19 post-Labor Day polls of the key Senate battleground states,” meaning that the Senate is still a jump ball. And what about that generic ballot question we were paying so much attention to over the summer? “Over the last few weeks, there haven’t been a lot of generic ballot polls, which ask voters whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans for Congress,” Cohn cautioned. “But there are mounting signs of a rightward shift on this measure.” 

In short: Campaigns aren’t taking anything for granted right now. 

Education Gap Hides Trump Voters: Of course, Cohn is relying on polls. But plenty of people—including Cohn—have made the argument that the polls may well be wrong. Again. 

Mark Weaver, continuing the argument that polls may be undercounting “Trump voters” again, took aim at the latest Marist poll, which had the Senate race in Ohio tied. But digging into the poll, he also noted  “45 percent of respondents had a college degree” despite the fact that fewer than 30 percent of Ohioans do. Of course, non-college educated white voters are the largest plurality of our electorate and make up a large chunk of those “secret Trump voters” who didn’t show up in 2016 polls. Pollsters who know this is a potential problem are trying to fix it, but they’ve told Weaver that “even their diligent efforts to counteract the effect — such as moving away from phone calls toward more online surveys and oversampling known GOP voters — have been unavailing.” 

Los Angeles Latino Bellwether: The mayor’s race there is fascinating. On the surface, it’s two Democrats, and it was supposed to be a blowout. Karen Bass is backed by nearly every state and national Democrat. She has high name recognition. And among likely voters, she’s ahead by double digits. But. Rick Caruso, who was a Republican until a few minutes ago, is picking up steam. He’s committed to spend at least $20 million of his own money on TV advertising and he’s built a formidable ground game focused on Latino neighborhoods and low turnout voters. 

The Los Angeles Times points out that homelessness could be a deciding factor. “Among likely voters, 91% said that homelessness affects their life directly or indirectly,” a Times-sponsored poll  found, “and 55% said that the mayor can have a major effect in solving the crisis.” While it’s an open seat, Bass is largely seen as the incumbent who would continue the policies of previous administrations. Caruso is painting himself as the change agent in a year that might put him within striking distance. 

If Bass wins by 5 or more points, it’s a dog bites man story. But if she only ekes out a win or if Caruso pulls it out, it could be another wakeup call for Democrats’ flagging popularity with Latino voters and a rejection of the Democratic brand on these “quality of life”issues. 

Or Latinos Stay Home: To win in Los Angeles, Caruso needs Latinos to turn out to vote for him. But in Nevada—a top-tier pick-up state for Republicans—GOP challenger Adam Laxalt could beat Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto if they stay home. One Democratic organizer told NBC that the Masto campaign’s ground game “didn’t hear waffling voters turning to Republicans; instead, they said they’d vote either for Democrats or stay home.” 

This is often how challengers win in midterms. The “change” voters are enthusiastic and turn out at high rates. The pool of “status quo” voters is the same size or bigger, but they’re not that happy with what’s been happening, either. Not unhappy enough to switch “teams” but enough to ignore the election altogether. When those two factors combine, change wins with sometimes shocking margins. 

I still think the most likely path for a GOP Senate as of today is a loss in Pennsylvania and a win in Nevada and Georgia.

Is Walker Toast? 

Monday evening, The Daily Beast posted a story with the headline, “‘Pro-Life’ Herschel Walker Paid for Girlfriend’s Abortion.” In it, they detail their evidence: proof of the abortion on September 12, 2009. A check for $700 from Walker to the anonymous woman on September 17, 2009. And a “get well soon note” signed by Walker that she says the check came tucked inside. Walker denied the allegations and said that he was preparing to sue The Daily Beast, which would require him to prove that the substance of the allegations are false and that The Daily Beast knew they were false when they published them. And the $700? He told Sean Hannity on Monday night that he gives people money all the time and sends cards all the time. 

In the aftermath of the story, Walker’s adult son, who had campaigned with Walker and supported his father as of just a few months ago, came out swinging on social media. “You’re not a ‘family man’ when you left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to kill us, and had us move over 6 times in 6 months running from your violence,” he tweeted late Monday night. “How DARE YOU LIE and act as though you’re some ‘moral, Christian, upright man.’ You’ve lived a life of DESTROYING other peoples lives.  How dare you.”

Can Walker survive? UVA’s Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato summed it up nicely: “Just a few years ago, I would have said no. Today, it’s very much an open question.” After Trump survived the Access Hollywood tape in 2016, nobody is going to be quick to predict Walker’s demise. 

As of now, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock has about a 2-point lead in the polling averages—where the race has been consistently for the past two months. But Republicans were feeling very confident as of a few days ago, believing Walker was the heavy favorite to win. 

Even if Warnock’s lead grows in the next 10 days, I wouldn’t be sure it’ll hold, a la Trump in 2016. On the one hand, a Senate race isn’t a presidential election—voters have a lot more information in a presidential race and are more likely to have stronger negative feelings about the opposing party’s candidate. But Walker’s voters already knew what they were getting. He had already had several damaging revelations about secret children come to light. This isn’t a bombshell that knocked a strong candidate off his pedestal. It’s more likely to exhaust voters than outrage them.

I think the Walker campaign’s biggest fear at this point shouldn’t be Walker voters moving to Warnock, but Walker voters staying home.

Andrew is back with a look at where all that midterm money is going on the right. Spoiler: It’s not necessarily going to GOP candidates. 

MAGA Inc.: GOP Midterms Savior or Mirage? 

Republicans finally thought they were going to catch up with Democrats in the small-dollar donor game. Donald Trump had cracked the code and the money from emails, social media, and direct mail came rolling in. But then, it stopped. Axios’ Lachlan Markay reported this summer that “Democrats across the 10 most competitive Senate races are out-raising Republicans by more than $75 million among small-dollar donors — those giving less than $200.”

Of course, that wasn’t the whole story. Donald Trump’s political operation had “hoovered up more than $60 million from under-$200 donors” by that point. But the candidates on the ballot weren’t seeing any of it. 

As a result, Republicans turned to outside groups—super PACs and similar operations built to fuel campaigns without ever talking to them. These groups can spend millions running TV ads or funding turnout efforts that cash-strapped campaigns can’t afford. Republican fundraising might have been lagging, but because of these outside groups, GOP spending was neck and neck.

Until now, the most important player in this game has been Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose Senate Leadership Fund is dropping hundreds of millions of dollars in support of Republicans in key battleground contests this year.

It amounted to a lot of money and a lot of power all concentrated in the hands of McConnell.  Now let’s think … is there anyone out there with an ax to grind against McConnell who might be interested in getting some of that cash and attention?

Why, yes, there is. 

Late last month, some of Trump’s closest allies announced the formation of a new super PAC, MAGA Inc., ostensibly in support of the same aims as McConnell’s: getting Republican congressional candidates across the finish line.

“President Trump is committed to saving America, and Make America Great Again, Inc. will ensure that is achieved at the ballot box in November and beyond,” Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich told Politico then. This was good enough for Politico, which ran its story with the headline “Trump to unleash millions in the midterms in possible prelude to 2024.”

Trump will certainly have the capacity to make big spending splashes in the midterms’ closing days. MAGA Inc. is a new organization, but Trump can pump it as full of cash as he likes from the coffers of his longstanding leadership PAC, Save America, which had nearly $93 million in the bank as of the August filing period (and has since enjoyed another fundraising windfall in the wake of the August 8 FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago).

But if Trump plans to unleash millions, he hasn’t unleashed them yet. MAGA Inc. has yet to announce any swing-state ad buys. The Dispatch reached out to Budowich to ask when we should expect to see that spending start; he did not reply.

Some have pointed out that it’s odd for MAGA Inc. to exist at all. If Trump wants to spend to buoy Republicans in the midterms, Save America would be perfectly suitable for the purpose. The two funds have different structures—Save America is a leadership PAC, MAGA Inc. a super PAC—but both are equally capable of dropping outside ad buys in support of congressional candidates.

Over at HuffPost, however, S.V. Date notes one crucial difference between the two funds: “The only thing that Save America … can’t do that his new super PAC will be allowed to do is boost Trump as a candidate for federal office.”

It wouldn’t exactly be a shock to see Trump say one thing about MAGA Inc. and then do something completely different—after all, that’s how Save America got so flush in the first place. In the weeks following the 2020 election, Trump barraged his supporters with requests for donations that he said would go to fund legal challenges against Biden’s win, which he insisted was illegitimate. Instead, he used those donations to pay down campaign debt and to pour tens of millions of dollars into the newly founded Save America.

The prospect that Trump—who already vacuums up much of the small-dollar money that could otherwise be going to current candidates who are hurting for it—could be pulling even more cash out of the Republican 2022 ecosystem as he looks toward 2024 isn’t one that particularly enthuses Republican strategists.

“McConnell has raised $300 million for the midterm effort, but any little bit Trump is willing to contribute will certainly help,” one such strategist told The Dispatch.