Two Minutes to Twilight

Are we living through a new Cold War? Possibly. But we’re certainly in a new ...

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Are we living through a new Cold War? Possibly. But we’re certainly in a new era of great-power competition between China and Russia and the United States. In a Remnant surprisingly lacking in ‘80s references, historian and American Enterprise Institute scholar Hal Brands joins Jonah to explore what America’s victory over the Soviet Union can teach us about how it should prosecute today’s global conflicts. Hal and Jonah also take a deep, extra-nerdy dive into Cold War history and the nature of American foreign policy during that strange era. Was the Cold War just about economics? Should Joe Biden pursue a modern version of Harry Truman’s containment strategy? And was China’s authoritarian turn inevitable?

Show Notes:

– Hal’s page at AEI

– Hal’s new book, The Twilight Struggle

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Great episode. To your point at the end: the conversation sounded perfectly natural to me. Not weird because you couldn’t interrupt each other. Audio quality was great. Did not notice any weird dings.

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    Jason Gibson

    I’m very confused. Jonahs needs to define his terms. He referred to the alma mater of his “beloved wife”. I thought he was married to the “fair Jessica”. Is that his bene gesserit concubine?

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      Jason Gibson

      Seriously though. Fantastic episode

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    George.Skinner

    Interesting discussion on the "soft power" comparisons between America and China. Something to consider is that the existing power structure of a country could significantly influence the attractiveness of the different systems. If you're in the ruling clique of a state that already trends towards authoritarianism, or where corruption tends to benefit an elite, the Chinese authoritarian model is going to be pretty attractive. In contrast, an American model emphasizing more democracy and rule of law can directly threaten your status. During the Cold War, this drove a lot of people nuts with the apparent immorality of coddling authoritarians on the grounds that "they're an SOB, but they're OUR SOB." However, the examples of places like South Korea, Taiwan, and Chile show that the long game of engagement tends to move societies towards greater freedom, democracy, and prosperity. Unfortunately, I don't think a lot of American critics have figured this out, and a lot of authoritarians HAVE.

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    CynthiaW

    Very nice chat.

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    Kyzyl Tuva

    Jonah, fantastic episode. Please keep this kind of material coming. It educates me and keeps my mind off of the noisy daily news cycle. Bravo!

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    Sam Elder

    At one point in the podcast, Jonah expressed ignorance about whether people in, say, Singapore want to imitate the Chinese model. Coming from Singapore, the answer to me is a bit of a mixed bag.

    The government and elites generally in Singapore are quite westernized and do not want to move Singapore towards the Chinese authoritarian model. Almost all of the political leadership studied in the US or UK (or both), for instance. That said, the ruling party’s general stance has been one of neutrality between the great powers, as Singapore attempts to essentially be the Switzerland of Asia.

    But the populace is a bit of a different matter. Majorities approve of the job Xi Jinping is doing, quite an outlier statistic. Among the majority ethnically Chinese population, they tend to consume a lot of Chinese (and Taiwanese) popular culture, and the limited media landscape means that few even know about the atrocities in Xinjiang.

    The one thing Singaporeans all seem to be against is anything major that would disrupt the status quo, which they are pretty satisfied with. War across the Taiwan Strait would be quite unpopular if only for that reason.

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    Chris

    This whole thing was very interesting. I think, in some ways, we're better-positioned for this "cold war" than we were for the last one.

    But it would be useful to consider a few things:

    1) (It's Ironic that CCR's "Run Through The Jungle" was playing in the background while I listened to this episode) Hal mentioned that a slim majority of voters would currently be willing to fight for Taiwan, and many more would be willing if an invasion actually happened. But even a sizable minority who OPPOSE the war could be cause for a lot of civil unrest in the US. Especially given China's population, we would likely need to institute a draft in order to match their military strength in open, conventional warfare. That wouldn't go over well. Besides the obvious human cost of any war, we should never stop trying to find an alternate solution to any challenge that arises in regard to China.

    2) Related to above: In the 1960's, the antiwar movement was connected with the New Left, The Hippies, etc. Though they didn't all hold the same ideas (I wouldn't say the Black Panthers were in agreement with the whole "peace and love" thing) we recognize it now, 50 years later, as a "counterculture." Just as Tucker Carlson is siding with Russia, the counterculture of the 60's did not take the soviet threat very seriously - if they considered it at all.

    Today, the counterculture is on the right. We can't "defeat Trumpism" because "Trumpism" isn't one unified thing. It's more of an attitude towards our society that one can take. The 1960's counterculture largely began as a response to what they considered to be "conformism" in their time - and indeed, today's Right-Wing counterculture is opposed to today's woke conformism. We must continue to resist excessive wokeness if we want the Right-Wing Counterculture (heretofore referred to as RWC) to recede. Tucker Carlson is already siding with Putin, will the RWC side with the CCP in the future, or at least play the role of useful idiot?

    3) At the same time that we need to cut down on the wokeness that so energizes the RWC, we *do* need to address lingering racial discrimination and other forms of bigotry. Partly on the merits, and partly because it will give us a moral high ground over the Chinese Autocracy.

    Despite my concerns, I think we're better positioned for this one. To my knowledge, China isn't formeting pro-chinese revolutions in its' neighbors to create sattelite states. Call me a hippy, but I have high hopes that we can resolve this one peacefully.

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    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    AEI should certainly post prominent links on its own website to these podcasts in which you're having its scholars as guests, Mr. Goldberg! With each successive one, my already considerable estimation for AEI has grown, and I would make a large wager that I'm not the only person who has had that experience.

    Supplementing your show notes, for those who may need their memories refreshed regarding Hal Brands' father & fellow historian, H.W. Brands: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._W._Brands

    I'm a fan of Brands père, and I particularly enjoyed his 2016 book "The General vs. the President: MacArthur and Truman at the Brink of Nuclear War." https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01AQNZQAE/ref=kinw_myk_ro_title

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  9. Robert Robison

    Jonah forgot to actually give the name of his guest in the introduction to the podcast. A minor oversight, but why not fix it in post-production?

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      Andrew

      Yes I noticed that. And then I heard him speak and thought, “wait, Noah Rothman has a book out?”

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    Adicesa14

    Great episode. If you keep this up, I may be able to say I know something, some day.

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