Biden’s State of the Union Misery Index

Potential primary challengers will be looking for weakness.

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President Joe Biden speaks during the Democratic National Committee winter meeting on February 3, 2023, in Philadelphia. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images.)

President Biden will try to add some oomph to his reelection campaign this week with his State of the Union address, and he sure could use the boost.

According to NBC News’ pollsters, fewer than a quarter of adults think the country is heading in the right direction, and just 28 percent say Biden has the “necessary mental and physical health to be president.” In the most recent WashingtonPost/ABC News poll, only 31 percent of Democrats said their party should nominate Biden again, and in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Biden actually trailed Donald Trump, the George Santos of former presidents, by 3 points.

Woof.

The things that are going right for Biden, like a boffo January jobs report and a successful bid to revamp his party’s primary calendar, often seem to be overshadowed—literally so, in the case of a Chinese spy balloon that transited the continental U.S. last week. Biden is looking to Tuesday’s speech for a clear shot to make his pitch for a second term, but he’s instead facing predictable distractions, like the long hangover from the shady buckraking efforts by his troubled son, Hunter, and surprises, like the quest for classified documents kicked off by the probe into Trump’s own purloining.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Retired Prosecutor

    If the SOTU speech is simply faux triumphalism about the myriad accomplishments of the Biden Administration, it will simply be more SOTU "rinse and repeat." Biden actually however can depart from the script and really help himself politically. To do so, Biden needs to make a full-throated leadership speech concerning the threat China poses to us, in the military, technology, and economic fields.

    But realistically, we're talking about Biden here, an imperfect vessel in the best of circumstances. Unfortunately, Joe Biden likely just doesn't have it in him -- an immodest man, with much to be modest about.

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  2. Avatar photo
    DougAz

    Well let us see.

    A. Biden has the greatest jobs growth and unemployment reduction in half a century
    B. I believe Foreign Affairs said Biden is single most effective President ever..ever against the Soviet Russians.
    C. Biden is sane. Republicans are obviously mentally deranged.

    Seems good on the merits. But Conservatives are sparse at best and nil overwhelming on any praise for a Democrat. That's life. Why is it so?

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    1. Raincheck

      I’m all over Biden if the opponent is Trump. Easy choice.

      But as for point 1), he came into office with the economy slowed down significantly by COVID. We would have had a huge recovery, a return toward normal, with Dr. Oz as President. He is not responsible for that growth, and when he brags about it people see through it. It is of a piece of Biden’s generally loose relationship with the truth.

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      1. Avatar photo
        DougAz

        You get credit for the time in office. Obama inherited Bush-Cheney's complete economic disaster caused by failure to oversight.

        Trump inherited Obamas recovery.

        Is what it is

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  3. DTruitt

    fta:

    "If you had told Biden 11 months ago that as he prepared to give this year’s big speech inflation would be easing, unemployment would be at its lowest point since 1969, illegal crossings at the Mexico border would be plummeting, Russia would be mired in a losing effort in Ukraine, Democrats would have overperformed in midterms, and that it would take 15 ballots for Republicans to elect a speaker of the House, the president would have assumed that his outlook for reelection was good. Instead, Biden is underwater with voters in poll after poll on his handling of the economy, inflation, immigration, and even the war in Ukraine.

    Well, start with "what did Joe Biden have to do with any of the above "good things" cited? "inflation easing" is still god awful high, and it never would have gone remotely as high as the all time record inflation we suffered last year if it wasn't for the Bernie Biden and Dems drunken sailor spree on spending in the lyingly named "American Recovery Act". Before COVID unemployment was also at the lowest it had been for many decades. Illegal crossings may or may not be plummeting, but when they were as god awful high as they were all of last year, the government doesn't get any credit for effing it up slightly less. The last I looked Biden wasn't fighting a war in Ukraine - all he did was dole out the dollars already appropriated by Congress a year ago in a strong bipartisan vote.

    Wondering why Biden doesn't get credit for all the wonderful things cited is like thanking the wife beater for giving his wife aspirin after the attack is over.

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    1. Avatar photo
      DougAz

      Your Democrat Hate is as good as my Conservative hate.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Retired Prosecutor

        Of course the problem for you -- as pointed out by Stirewalt -- is that this feeling is shared by most Democrats.

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        1. Avatar photo
          DougAz

          And equally at least by most Conservatives. It's who America is for the last 30 plus years.

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  4. James Morphew

    Since the Democrats have a history of forming monolithic support behind their front-runner, I don't expect any real intra-party challenge. I do expect many currently unsatisfied Dems to settle down and support Biden if nominated. The largest factors in the upcoming campaign is the leanings of the primary voters, who seem to be anything but a slice of wide-band Americans.

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  5. Avatar photo
    Gibby

    That's a really good point! All of our "one term presidents" (i use quotes because Johnson was a term and a year) had challenges that seemed to contribute to making them such. Except for Trump...........but before him you have to go back to 1952 and Truman deciding not to run (im not aware of anyone challenging him in the run up) and he had almost two full terms as FDR died like almost immediatley after taking office for that fourth term. (i've read that Truman and FDR had like somewhere between zero and one conversations)

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    1. Avatar photo
      DougAz

      Truman was a fabulous president and thank god it wasnt that racist bastard from the Carolinas in 44

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      1. Avatar photo
        Gibby

        He was indeed! But he was technically a one termer Since his first term was FDR’s fourth term

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        1. Avatar photo
          DougAz

          Have you Truman's autobiography? Plain Speaking. It's excellent.

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  7. Avatar photo
    George.Skinner

    It's not just Biden, it's his administration. Thin-skinned, unwilling to admit problems or errors, incessant spin that approaches gaslighting. People get unhappy when things aren't going well; when an administration flat-out denies what's obvious, they get angry and also start to wonder if the administration has any grip on reality.

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    1. Avatar photo
      DougAz

      Sounds like Bush-Cheney and Reagan eh?

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  8. Hikingguy

    "Misery index"? My God, is it the 70s again? Thanks for the laugh.

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  9. Dougrhon

    The reason Democrats want another nominee has nothing to do with external factors like whether inflation is easing. It has to do with the fact that he is an old 80 and not getting any younger and clearly does not seem to be in control of his administration or command of the power he wields. Frankly every single solitary Democrat ought to want another nominee for this reason.

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      1. Avatar photo
        George.Skinner

        George H.W. Bush might point out that successfully managing a war and historic achievements aren't sufficient conditions for winning re-election, and Joe Biden is no George H.W. Bush.

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        1. Avatar photo
          DougAz

          Thank god Biden is fabulously better than the coward Bush I who utterly failed to capture Saddam Hussein. Which would have saved a million lives, made 911 not a thing, and saved trillions amd trillions of dollars.

          F Bush I the crook of Iran-Contra

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          1. Avatar photo
            Retired Prosecutor

            Calling someone a coward (George H.W. Bush) who flew bombers off a carrier deck in WWII, who was shot down, and then nearly killed by Japanese snipers, is the worst kind of cheap shot. I'm a conservative, but I consider George McGovern to be a war hero because of his B-24 bomber exploits in WWII. Charley Rangel, whose politics couldn't be different than mine, was an infantry NCO who bravely led his men out of harrowing danger in Korea and showed real heroism. We have historically had lots of heroes in both parties. I will never understand the liberal tendency to look down upon or trivialize military service.

            We should instead honor those Americans who served their country, particularly those who did so at great personal risk, and especially if we did not do so ourselves. These mens' character as heroes persists, even if we disagree with them politically.

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          2. CatoTheElder

            Doug, to call the elder Bush a coward is, at best, simply nonsense—and I believe you know that.

            As for what would have happened had Saddam been relieved of his earthly duties in the denouement of Desert Storm, I think it’s kind of fascinating that you believe that would have “made 911 not a thing”. As for saving millions of lives and many trillions of dollars, well, I think it might be wise to acknowledge that we don’t actually know how things would have played out if Saddam had bought the farm in ‘91. It’s easy—too easy, really—for anyone with an axe to grind to look back on history and say, “If they’d only done X, we’d never have suffered through Y.”

            Back to the point, however, it wasn’t anything remotely like cowardice that prompted the decision not to put a bullet in Saddam’s brain, but a choice based on analysis and debate amongst knowledgeable folks who, in all fairness, faced a whole set of tough questions with no clear “correct” answers.

            A man for whom I once worked, now passed away, wore a uniform with lots of gold braid trim and went about in a vehicle with a flag attached; he had the opportunity to meet GHW Bush, and even watch him work, so to speak, in some high-level meetings. This admiral deeply respected President Bush, and once told me, in a personal, confidential conversation, that, in his opinion, Bush’s biggest flaw was simply that he wasn’t a great politician, and tended to listen a bit too much, when it came to elections, campaigns, and political matters, to those with alleged expertise and heaps of bona fides in that arena. The most remarkable thing about Bush was that seldom was his primary motivation his own reputation, let alone aggrandizement. He was, by the reports of those who knew him best and longest, a decent, honorable man. I hope someone might say the same about me some day.

            I’d really like it if we could avoid remarks of the “F— Bush” and “Let’s Go Brandon” sort.

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      2. Dougrhon

        Hahaha

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    2. Hikingguy

      "Clearly" is not so clear to everybody, you know. I would prefer another nominee-the Dems have some Governors worth looking at-but I think Joe is far superior-as an executive-to Trump.

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      1. Dougrhon

        Pray God those are not the options. The choice between a doddering life long mediocrity and an aging lunatic is not something to look forward to.

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  10. Ellisrt1031

    Trump winning the primary will make it a certainty Biden will win. Wouldn't surprise me if Garland is slow playing prosecutions to give Trump a chance to further blow up election chances. Biden loves positive polls regarding Trump because he knows Trump can't and shouldn't win. Republicans need to carefully analyze their best shot, appears to be DeSantis at this point, and grab all the money guys they can to get behind it. We know Trump will avoid spending his own money, maybe even to the point of getting out if it comes to that. Liberal media probably will prop Trump up by covering him as the leading Republican candidate so they can push the extremely aged old man (Biden) to the finish line.

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      1. Ellisrt1031

        Lindsay Graham doesn't worry me. He is a dope. Need real money to shift out of Trump. Have read some evidence that it is.

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