Three Numbers, Six Months, and One Slog of a Campaign

Voters casts their votes at a polling station in Nashville, Tennessee, on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. (Photo by SETH HERALD/AFP via Getty Images)

We are six months and one day from Election Day, and the state of the race is … a muddle.

The incumbent president and his principal challenger are tied nationally. In the swing states, the challenger has had a small, persistent advantage, but nothing to suggest that this race is anything but a dead heat. 

Same story for control of the House of Representatives, where the two major parties are grinding it out in pursuit of what looks like another very narrow majority. The Senate isn’t much different. Republicans have an advantageous map that puts Democrats on the defensive in more places, but it would be a surprise to no one if the GOP squandered yet another opportunity. 

Weak candidates, weaker parties, and a national debate substantially devoted to which side would most surely hasten American decline. Ugh. But what did you expect in an evenly divided nation with the first presidential rematch since the year Elvis had his first hit record?

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