How Germany’s Green Party Could Take Control of the Government This Fall

Angela Merkel has relied on centrist coalitions to stay in power. That power-sharing pushes disaffected voters toward more extreme parties.

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Angela Merkel announced years ago that her current term as German chancellor would be her last. And federal elections, set for September, are still months away. But if current opinion polls bear out, the country—and by extension the continent—could be headed toward political chaos. 

Merkel has ruled Germany with a steady hand since 2005. As the leader of the most powerful country in the EU, many people on both sides of the Atlantic looked toward her for leadership on the world stage during the Trump era. Her departure will shake up Germany’s political coalition, and right now, it’s the German Green Party that appears poised to benefit the most.

Merkel has for most of her time in government been forced into “grand coalitions” between her own Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), as she has been unable to secure a majority for her own party in parliamentary elections. The latest grand coalition was formed in 2013. Now, both parties are crumbling in the polls.

Why did the ‘grand coalition’ fail?

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  1. Jack Wright

    This is a good roundup, but I think the possibility of a green, blue, and gold national coalition was too discounted. The SPD has yet to recover from the generationally huge loss in popularity, and party heads are none too keen on Die Linke. CDU-Green coalitions have worked at the landtag (state) level for years, and the FDP is no stranger to working with either party. So while the Greens might displace the Christian Democrats as being in the driver's seat, I think there is still a good chance that the CDU hangs around.

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      While this would be the best outcome, I don't see Green voters being too happy about it and I think the CDU would quite frankly outplay the Greens since CDU has so much more governing experience and experience of negotiating coalitions. I also think the CDU self-image might make it hard for them to accept a role as a junior partner in a coalition (if they were to end up smaller than the Greens).

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    Paul Britton

    Excellent piece on a topic of great interest to me for a number of reasons, not least of which is that my wife’s family are German immigrants and continues to have extended family and friends in Germany.

    Also, I appreciate Mr. Gustavsson’s engaging with the comments. Always valuable.

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      Thank you! I really enjoy reading everyone's comments

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    Octávio Lima

    Very interesting article but a few comments. AfD is probably not the only party to suffer that fate. In Spain, both Vox and Podemos are also taking water, though Podemos was recently part of the governing coalition. But they did not get the concessions they wanted, even if Podemos drove the coalition leftward. I am also concerned about the idea the German Greens are only moderately leftwing, and we have to trust the author, but the vast majority of Green parties in Europe are socialist parties with an environmental coat.

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  4. Andrewchida

    This was a very interesting article, thank you.

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      You're very welcome

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  5. Ingenero.lux

    First thing I think of when someone says the Greens could govern Germany:

    https://youtu.be/AI84fsLuG_M

    But, outside of reminding me of 80s right-wing action flicks, very interesting article, thanks!

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I wish I would have remembered that, I totally would have included a reference to it!

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  6. Stephen Nielson

    This was wonderfully informative, thank you!

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      Thank you, glad you enjoyed it :)

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    Marian Cates

    Very helpful.

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      Thank you!

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    Victor Clairmont

    I have been watching with hesitancy about the nationalism flowing out of Germany. I wonder if the Green Party wins if that will only strengthen the fury of it. The refugee crisis was definitely a political background that accelerated the demise of Merkel’s coalition.

    It’s funny because Germany was swapping for green energy (windmills and solar) but then, because of not producing enough energy they are allowing pipelines for gas from....Russia.

    Some definite things to keep any eye on here.

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      This is part of the reason why the German green party is a joke to me. It would honestly not surprise me if Germany ended up having to ration electricity if they came to power.

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      Phil H

      Also, after the Fukushima Daiishi nuclear accident in Japan, Germany abandoned nuclear power which increased its reliance on -- wait for it -- coal.

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        Victor Clairmont

        Yes I remember. It was such a stupid overreaction and ironic.

        The political and lobbying forces against nuclear have been so wildly successful it is astounding how backwards we went on energy for the last 30 years.

        Where the devil is my nuclear starship reactor that leads to the scientific breakthrough of warp speed and the starship Enterprise?! (Heh)

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          Phil H

          Slightly off topic, but it always amazes me that the people wanting to get to zero carbon emissions, ignore the best way, perhaps the only way we know of, to get there -- nuclear power.

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    Phil H

    Thanks for the article. Very informative. I have tried to follow German politics ever since serving in Germany (what was then, *West* Germany) in the 1980s.

    German politics has changed dramatically from the 1980s to now. Probably the biggest reason was the reunification of West and East Germany, which brought, among many others, Angela Merkel, into the Federal Republic founded in the West in 1949.

    Back then, there were widespread concerns against immigrant "guest workers" (mostly Turks but some balkans as well), Clearly, those concerns have been pushed aside, at least at the governing level, even though then, as now, the governing party was the CDU (then led by Helmut Kohl).

    One other thing: in the early 1980s, a new German party was started by a young woman with part-American ancestry named Petra Kelly -- "die Grünen". We know them now as the Greens, now on the cusp, it seems, of taking over from the CDU.

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    MarqueG68

    If American media bias is toward Democrats, and British media bias is toward Labour, German media bias is heavily toward the Greens. I think I heard the stat that at the main public broadcasters, staff are about 80 percent in favor of the Green party.

    Another factor helping German Greens is frustration among German leftists with their Social Democrat party's performance in shared power. Nothing is more corrosive to any political party's political support as much as holding power. So a lot of former SPD voters who weren't able to stomach the far-leftism of Die Linke have moved their support to the Greens as an established, moderate-left-sounding option, at least as far as economic policy goes.

    But Germans have shown themselves willing to go hard core green, too. Greenpeace there is a healthy, wealthy organization. And when it engages in domestic ecoterrorism, the German press cover for it in a fashion that would bring tears to Goebbels' eyes.
    https://www.achgut.com/artikel/aktivisten_oder_oekoterroristen

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      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      Very true that there is a lot of frustration with SPD, but in truth, I suspect that if the Green party were in a grand coalition they would be in the same spot as you can't get much done in a coalition like that. That is why grand coalitions were originally only really a thing during states of total war (the UK had a grand coalition government during World War II) - they're not meant to so much DO anything, just to keep things stable until everything calms down.

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