The Primary That Wasn’t

Did DeSantis miscalculate?

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216
Republican candidate Ron DeSantis speaks during the Republican Party of Iowa 2023 Lincoln Dinner at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa, Friday, July 28, 2023. (Photo by Rebecca S. Gratz/Washington Post/Getty Images)

Last night a colleague at The Dispatch emailed me about yesterday’s newsletter. Nice column, this person said, except for one passage that didn’t land. It’s this one, where I summarized the latest iteration of Ron DeSantis’ pitch to Republicans:

Insofar as mail ballots tilted the outcome in 2020, Trump is to blame. If Republicans end up blowing an otherwise winnable election in 2024 by harping on 2020, Trump is to blame. Not coincidentally, those two points reflect the two grand themes of DeSantis’ campaign—competence and electability vis-a-vis the frontrunner.

Isn’t that, er, wrong?

Competence and electability should have been the themes of DeSantis’ campaign, my colleague argued. The actual theme of the campaign is, well …

Seven times in 26 seconds. DeSantis 2024: A noun, a verb, and “woke.”

News broke on Tuesday that the governor’s campaign manager, Generra Peck, has finally been demoted. (The number of “resets” DeSantis has ordered in the past six weeks is approaching the number of “wokes” in his stump speech.) That came a day after a poll found him sliding to single digits in New Hampshire, tied for second with Chris Christie at 9 percent. The moment seems ripe for a premortem: Would a campaign that had emphasized competence and electability from the jump be doing better than one prone to chumming the online waters with “woke” pandering and dank memes featuring white-supremacist iconography?

I mean, yes? How could it have fared worse?

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  1. Dnels

    Rather than 2020, this was the election the RNC should have shut down the primary season. There was never a reasonable chance to peel off a significant enough piece of the electorate from Trump. Cults of personality only grow stronger with time, especially if the cult leader claims persecution on behalf of the faithful.

    The time to kick him out of the party was 2021, by impeaching him for the election denialism resulting in J6. Given the gnat-like attention span of American voters, they would have taken the initial beating then been able to focus attention on the failings of the Biden admin to get the vote out in the midterms. Instead, they were afraid of their voters and taking a drubbing in '22 (which Trump gave them anyway) and will get another one in '24 by having a candidate unable to campaign because he will be in court the entire year paying for his criminality, which the GOP looked away from or actively abetted.

    They deserve all of it and more.

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  2. Nick Pellicciotto

    The whole situation in the GOP is a massive prisoner's dilemma. They think they can't win without Trump's base, but they know that he's an albatross around their neck in the general.

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  3. Hartzlk

    "assume the mantle of the Great Anti-Trump Hope"
    Lol, love it.

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  4. Billy Zammit

    Gratified to see Nick finally throw in the towel on DeSantis. Pretty sure that Nick was the last NeverTrumper who still believed that Ron was a viable Trump slayer.

    Youngkin is not going to get in the race after he has seen what Trump did to Ron. Youngkin's whole shtick is basically to just be Mitt Romney except a committed team player Republican who goes out of his way to avoid alienating the MAGA base. Instead look for Youngkin to sit out the primary, openly endorse Trump after Trump wins, and then go mute and hope that Trump doesn't win in '24 (for whatever reason), after which Youngkin will be well placed to run in '28.

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      Sarah’s Buckets

      Rational question. If as President, Trump was unable to stop Biden and his team from stealing the election, how is he going to improve as a mere citizen?

      Seems to me we need a new team to fight that fight. He’s a proven loser.

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      Ms. SSM

      Even if he does win in 2024 Youngkin would be well placed for 2028. Trump can’t run in 2028.

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      1. Billy Zammit

        If Trump wins in 2024, the prohibitive favorite in 28 would be his veep (likely Stefanik or Mace)

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    Rajeev

    Electability and competence might work for Youngkin...in 2028! He would be a fool to jump in now when he has a chance to be a prominent figure for years to come by staying out of it and passively supporting Trump.

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    Rajeev

    The problem with Ron DeSantis has always been Ron DeSantis. I think he could've taken a million different routes but could never defeat Trump. It's like trying to sell an old early 2000s flipphone to a crowd with iPhones. Doesn't matter how you market the product...the problem is the product and the fact that people have eyes.

    So many people (including former Republicans) warned for years now that DeSantis will turn off a national crowd and the more you get to know him the less people will like. He's a career AA 40 year old that can't hit major league pitching. It's like taking a High School basketball player and telling him to go 1 on 1 with Lebron James. Doesn't matter who is coaching him or how much strategy he has, it won't work.

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  7. Nick Pellicciotto

    Just today he suspended the duly elected Orlando state attorney (who also just happens to be a black woman). Either he’s learned nothing or has truly authoritarian instincts. I’d say it’s the latter.

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  8. Kbg

    Isn't this analysis and the comments mostly superficial?

    I mean a good 50% or more of the comments are long versions of Hillary's basket of deplorables comment. They also happen to be your fellow citizens who work, have lives to live, families to raise, businesses to run, jobs to do and children and parents to take care of. And, statistically they are on the lower end of the economic and education scale.

    Do you really think given all the above they are cultists? If you do, you have no business commenting on politics. You're just too stupid and biased to objectively assess reality. I'm not a MAGA, do not care for Trump, never voted for Trump but I am surrounded by MAGA in a deep red state. A smart politician figures out the following:

    - How do I address and protect values in a secular country...who's secularism is a positive thing in the long run?

    - How do I address and rebalance the economic concentration of power such that the lower economic rungs benefit while maintaining a capitalist system which is a positive thing in the long run?

    - How do I ensure the value of their work and associated earnings are greater than the value and earnings of the welfare state and work as being preferable to doing nothing is clearly going to be the case?

    - How do I help them feel that it isn't a negative to be a traditional white anglo saxon protestant while focusing on the long-term benefits of diversity that isn't defacto reverse sexual and racial prejudice?

    - How do I make a case that some foreign involvement and spending is necessary to keep America great in a threatening world when everyday the media bombards them how bad things are in America?

    The politician who figures this out, wins the Republican party and most likely the general election.

    The vast MAGA majority wants the same as everyone else in this country...fairness, respect, opportunity and reward for work rendered.

    And here's a little secret you heard here first...MAGA knows Trump isn't going to win and is looking for a winning horse. They just don't see one yet.

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      Pbanuski

      One thing that I'm currently working on in my own life is being more aware of the fact that everyone is complex, everyone has a story, and so I try not to criticize the *person* but the idea or the action. It's safe to say at this point that many of the MAGA crowd support deplorable ideas and actions. Are they all deplorable themselves? No, that's not fair. But they've ACTED like idiots for years.

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      1. Kbg

        I think one has to separate those whose livelihoods are this stuff, be it politics or the media, from what they termed as the MAGA base. Good leaders and politicians recognize and channel what is already there. Someone can despise the Don, but there's not doubt he tapped into something that was real. And, on an issues basis, has quite a bit that is legitimate. BLM is analogous. The organization, not so great. What they tapped into, statistically validated, and real for black Americans.

        My argument on this would be that Trump is an awful leader on any measure of good government leadership, but there's a sizeable contingent of Americans with some legit issues.

        As a closer, the best leaders channel what they recognize into good things and good results for "We the People." Unfortunately, way too many in the media and political sphere don't have these aspirations.

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          Pbanuski

          In your previous comment you listed some of those issues, and looking back, I can say... OK, sure, I get it, but why would any normal thinking person choose Donald Trump as your representative? If you cannot see that he is patently unfit for office, well, then you're the one screwing yourself over. If you want your issues taken seriously, try a serious person, not Cheeto Mussolini.

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          1. Kbg

            I got no reply for you...concur.

            However, I think this is where the mainstream media departing from objective, non-biased reporting narrative has resonance with MAGA. If one is so inclined to believe the bias is unalterable "then of course" they're just trying to set him up which of course Trump then plays like a fiddle for all it's worth. Now the legal system has been thrown into the mix. It's all toxic and scary stuff for the Republic in my view which no doubt he's exploiting.

            But to conclude from my perspective, historically, folks like him simply ride what is already there. Interwar Germany being the most extreme example of the dynamic going horribly wrong.

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  9. Mikebenaquis

    I want to vote for a candidate that espouses an agenda as close as possible to my worldview. One who is willing to compromise. That is what ‘electable’ means to me.
    I want to listen to both sides’ arguments, select the components that resonate with me, and come to my conclusion.
    I want to be a truth-seeker. In Jon Ward’s book, Testimony, he says this of truth seekers: they “don’t search for battles outside themselves to win. Instead, they examine their own point of view, searching for holes, weaknesses, error. Truth-seekers don’t pretend to understand other points of view. They inhabit them, walk around in them, and try to gain perspective. They hold their conclusions with an open hand. And yet, at the end of the day, a truth-seeker doesn’t shy away from speaking up”. Page 6. I admit I do not do this well.
    Unfortunately, I don’t see this being done by most of the electorate. This desire on my part would put me in the persuadable column, most definitely.
    In one sense, if you put a brown paper over the head of a conservative and a liberal, I would not be able to tell much of a difference.
    You will most likely brand me as heretical and naïve,
    but:
    both want what is best for the country;
    both have their version of the deep state;
    both have their George Soros, i.e. the Koch family, Peter Thiel, and others;
    both have their worldview which they want to impose on each other or ‘mandate’ if you will;
    both have their versions of ‘woke’; and
    both espouse freedom but only on their terms, i.e. freedom to just be left alone for one. I am thinking of tran people here.
    Many other examples that can be given.
    I think ‘woke’ is a meaningless label used to shut down discussion, to put down those you disagree with, to mock them, and to bully them. Mr. Trump is right in this regard. Jonah Goldberg says it is just a term to describe what you don’t like.
    The persistent use of ‘woke’ is similar to ‘crying wolf’. Eventually, it is ignored.
    Most Europeans could be defined as ‘woke’ as it is used in this county. So how will DeSantis negotiate with them should he win? They’re ‘woke’ for God’s sake! It will be interesting to see.
    I want to vote for a moderate but I cynically don't believe there will be one.Expand full commentShow less

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    1. Nick Pellicciotto

      Luckily that person is sitting in the White House as we speak.

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    Stephanie

    I appreciate the way you go back over your past logic, and second-guess yourself. It's a worthwhile exercise.

    In retrospect, I see 2 valid points made about DeSantis, way back when, that turn out correct:

    1) Mark Leibovitch's article in the Atlantic: "Just wait Until You Get To Know Ron DeSantis,"
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/ron-desantis-awkward-trump-2024/672292/

    2) Sarah Longwell asking back in the Spring why anyone would vote for a Trump mini-me when they could vote for the genuine item.

    He really only looked good on paper. The way he talked, looked, and acted belied the positive prognostications.

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