Whodunnit?

A mysterious drone attack on the Kremlin.

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People gather on the dome of the Kremlin compound in central Moscow on May 3, 2023. (Photo by STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images)

We need a break from discussing authoritarianism in the United States, a grim and dispiriting subject.

Let’s talk about something cheery instead, like the locus of Russian authoritarianism being bombed.

The Western world awoke on Wednesday to astonishing video of explosions over the Kremlin.

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  1. Matt D.

    I love this ending: “Tell me why I’m wrong.“

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      Probably Wrong

      An openness to the possibility of your own wrongness is a sure sign of honesty, intellect, good faith, and being exceptionally good-looking to boot

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    Ben Connelly

    One theory you didn’t explore was the possibility of anti-Putin actors within Russia. I could see reasons to doubt that, but it’s certainly possible.

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    Mister D

    You do a nice job outlining both arguments. I am certainly biased against Putin so take this as you will, but ironcally I find the False Flag hypothesis more credible. Ukraine needs allies and it does not need to give Putin reason to escalate nor give allies reason to leave.

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    Dave in Houston

    Good analysis. You may have changed my mind on this.

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  5. Saibot.Neb

    I like the psyop scenario; Ukraine loses very little and sows fear among the Russian populace. Putin's "This is 9/11!" hissy fit is par for the course, and probably shouldn't be taken very seriously. I hope and pray I'm not wrong here, because that nutter still has nukes, and I can see him using them if anyone does.

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  7. Mathias

    A very nice respite from your usual beat. You examine all sides of an issue so well, I wish you would do it more in contexts beyond domestic politics. Thanks for the informative analysis.

    (I lean toward Russian anti-Putin forces being responsible, since that would eliminate the necessity of explaining the drone's long trek into Russian territory, as well as providing a decent reason why the attack didn't do much damage beyond the symbolic. But it's still an open question in my mind.)

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      Ben Connelly

      Yeah that’s an underrated theory I’m somewhat bullish on. There are reasons to be skeptical of it, but it’s one we don’t hear much about. Putin has enemies in Russia.

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  8. Uriah

    Putin's propaganda theme is lone Russia fighting against vile collective West and its Nazi lackey Ukraine stopping at nothing to destroy the Russian soul. He instills fear in the populace not a confidence. That speaks for the false flag.

    However, the Russians, while harboring peculiar Russian patriotism, are also quite cynical regarding their national symbols (Kremlin). The attack was purely symbolic enterprise, as the author duly admitted. Russian propaganda rather downplayed the event than steered the nationwide wrath.

    To conduct the the proper cost-benefit analysis from Putin point of view the observer should be placed inside Russia, because American standards and shallow journalistic logic do not fit here. Looking from the US I am inclined to credit Putin internal enemies for the show, not himself or Ukraine, seeking an end to the war and sending the message to the public that any victory is an illusion.

    It is possible that we underappreciate the internal Russian temperature now when the Putin underlings see the dead end. Remember, the CIA and praised academic US researchers did not comprehend that Soviet militarist economy before 1985-1986 (even after) was rapidly collapsing. Russia always cracks up with little noise and suddenly.

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  9. Rick Leadem

    I think that whoever executed this show was most likely an adversary of the Kremlin. If it was a false flag event, they wouldn’t have used two drones because they didn’t need a back up with their air defenses off. I also suspect that if it was something staged by Moscow, the light show would have been better than what we saw here.

    I don’t know who was responsible but it wasn’t self inflicted.

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    Gbr0wn

    "“The Russian side reserves the right to take retaliatory measures where and when it sees fit.”
    gotta love that skull in the desert bone dry Russian humor

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