Can Trump, GOP Hit the Jackpot in Nevada?

Happy Friday! Election Day is 11 days away. Who says politics isn’t a sport? ESPN sports commentator Stephen A. Smith appeared on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox News last night to discuss the 2024 election. The two said they were good friends.

Up to Speed

• Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are both taking their campaigns to states they have little chance of winning. Harris will hold a rally in Houston today, where pop superstar Beyoncé, whose song “Freedom” has been Harris’ campaign anthem, will join her. Although Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred is in a somewhat competitive Senate race against incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, few observers believe Harris will take the state. Meanwhile, Trump teased on Thursday that he may visit Virginia, noting that his daughter-in-law, Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, will join Gov. Glenn Youngkin at a rally on Saturday. “Virginia early vote is looking tremendous enough for the GOP that perhaps Lara is not the only TRUMP you will see in the Commonwealth before Election Day. Stay tuned!” Trump wrote on X. The former president also will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City Sunday, which is not too far from battleground House districts that Republicans hope to keep.
• Trump and Harris were deadlocked in the last New York Times poll of the election cycle released today, both getting 48 percent nationally, a fitting development in the final stretch of an incredibly close race for the White House. The poll indicated that Trump has the momentum, as Harris held a 3-point lead in the Times’s previous poll. In today’s poll, voters still largely trust Trump on the issue of immigration, but Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead on the economy. One major theme from this election cycle has been the gender gap, and that divide remained in the poll, as women broke for Harris 54 percent to 42 percent, and men went for Trump 55 percent to 41 percent.
• X owner and Trump supporter Elon Musk donated $10 million at the beginning of this month to the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The donation is not Musk’s first foray into congressional races. In addition to boosting Trump, his America super PAC has also spent millions of dollars helping Republican candidates for the House of Representatives and a much smaller amount aiding GOP candidates for the Senate.

Viva Las Vegas: Latino Voters Could Hold the Key to Nevada for GOP

LAS VEGAS—It was quite a show Thursday night at the Thomas and Mack Center, the University of Nevada-Las Vegas arena that looks out at the skyline of the Las Vegas strip.

The rally for Donald Trump began early in the evening with a showcase of Polynesian music and dancing as thousands of attendees filed into the arena seats. Then came a lengthy set from Common Kings, a rock band from Orange County, California. Next was a series of introductory speeches from figures across the extended Trump universe: Danica Patrick, Gina Carano, Kash Patel, Charlie Kirk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. Getting the loudest applause up to that point was the penultimate speaker, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, the Democrat-turned-Republican who spoke briefly before introducing the star of the showcase: Trump himself.

And what an entrance, fitting for the location. With a spectacular light show and an audience that had waited for hours rising to their feet, an announcer shouted over the PA system what everyone was waiting to hear: “Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the 45th president of the United States of America, Donald! J.! Truuuuuuuuump!” 

On a screen behind the stage was the image of an exploding firework synchronized to the sound of a loud boom as the Republican nominee walked out, slowly and deliberately, looking out into the adoring crowd. The Lee Greenwood staple “God Bless the U.S.A.” played in its entirety as Trump waved, danced, and made his way to the podium. The only thing missing from the spectacle were performers from Cirque du Soleil.

“Hello, Las Vegas,” Trump said as the roar of the crowd became nearly deafening. “We love you.”

And enough of Vegas may love Trump. 

It’s been 20 years since a Republican presidential ticket won Nevada, but there’s a growing sense here that Trump may finally do it. That’s thanks to a confluence of factors having less to do directly with the former president himself and more to do with an environment ripe for the Republican taking. Ongoing economic frustration and exhaustion with the current Democratic administration, several paid efforts to turn out the GOP vote for races down the ballot, and an increase in Republican voter registration that has pulled the party nearly even with Democrats are all working to Trump’s advantage here. On top of all of that is a possible big shift in the state’s Latino vote, which makes up just under 20 percent of the electorate. 

Taken together, it’s no wonder Republicans are sounding upbeat about their ability to finally clinch Nevada’s six electoral votes, a small but potentially decisive pick-up in what could be a close battle in the Electoral College.

“The enthusiasm is like I’ve never seen,” said Michael McDonald, the chairman of the Nevada Republican Party, at a Wednesday rally here with Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance. And on Thursday, nearly two hours before Trump arrived, Tyler Bowyer of Turning Point Action, the outside group that hosted the Vegas rally and is also running part of the Republican get-out-the-vote effort, brought down the house when he delivered to the MAGA crowd exactly what it wanted to hear: “Guys, I just got off the phone with our data team: We’re winning Nevada,” Bowyer said as people in the stands shouted and stamped their feet.

There’s truth in that assessment. The signs of Republican victory can be seen in the initial returned ballots in early voting, which began in Nevada on October 19. So far, around 17,000 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early—either by mail or in person—in a reversal of past elections that has stunned veteran Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston. “I now feel like I am in the upside-down world,” Ralston wrote on his Nevada Independent blog Wednesday night about the rolling early-vote tally.

Nevada Democrats insist that the voter turnout machine built by the late Sen. Harry Reid can still deliver for Harris as it has for statewide Democratic candidates for years. A coalition of unionized workers in Nevada’s tourism and hospitality industries, Latinos, and progressive interest groups have been mobilized in election after election here, and the Democratic thinking is that Republicans are simply cannibalizing much of their regular Election Day vote tallies now that Trump has embraced early voting. Democrats can make it up with their own voters plus the balance of unaffiliated voters who just need to be convinced by their army of canvassers to turn in their ballot.

But there are clear cracks in this Democratic wall in Nevada that have been growing for some time. 

While Barack Obama blew out John McCain here by a whopping 12 points in 2008, subsequent GOP campaigns have chipped away at that margin. Trump came the closest in his run against Hillary Clinton, falling just over 2 points short by running up his numbers in rural Nevada while making gains in the Clark County suburbs of Las Vegas. Joe Biden did better than Clinton by cutting into Trump’s numbers in rural Nevada and improving in Washoe County, home of Reno and the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe.

And Republicans say they are starting to peel off voters in Clark County who are a key part of the Democratic bloc: the blue-collar hospitality workers who are overwhelmingly Latino. At the Vance rally on Wednesday, which was held at the Treasure Island hotel and casino, McDonald, the state GOP chairman, claimed there were workers there telling him about their love for Trump.

“We were walking in,” said McDonald, “and I had culinary workers stop, and they said, ‘Thank you. Thank you, and thank your leadership, President Trump, and the people that are running for this office right now, because they’re taking care of the working men and women.’”

In 2020, Biden received 61 percent of the Latino vote while Trump had just 35 percent, according to exit polls. But polling this cycle has shown Trump has closed that gap considerably. A recent survey of likely Nevada voters by InsiderAdvantage, which showed both candidates tied statewide at about 48 percent, found Harris leading with 47.8 percent of the Hispanic vote, but with Trump close behind at 43.8 percent. If those numbers hold, that could be enough to swing the election.

But if there’s one thing Nevada operatives from both parties who spoke to Dispatch Politics agreed on, it’s how close the race will be here, just as in the other battleground states. As one Nevada-based Republican strategist put it: “I’ll be stunned if this thing is outside a point either way.”

Maryland Senate Hopeful Angela Alsobrooks Hopes Party Will Trump Popularity

SILVER SPRING, Maryland—Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, the Democratic nominee for Maryland’s open Senate seat, is well aware of her opponent’s popularity among the state’s voters. After all, they elected him governor twice. 

But now that Larry Hogan is running for Senate, Alsobrooks has worked to remind Marylanders of his fatal flaw: He’s a Republican. 

“I’m going to tell you I like Larry Hogan. I worked with him when he was governor, but he absolutely should not have any business handing the majority to those Republicans in the Senate,” she told a crowd Tuesday at the Woodlands at Reid Temple, a senior living facility in the county she serves. “And that’s what his election would do, is empower a caucus of people who do not support the values that we support.”

That’s been her central pitch against Hogan in her quest to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin. Throughout the campaign, Alsobrooks has sought to nationalize the race as much as possible. If there were any doubt about what she saw as the central issue in the campaign, she christened a number of her campaign appearances as the “Defend Our Majority Tour.” 

In making her pitch all about party, she has put Hogan, an anti-Trump Republican in a blue state, on the defensive. In response, he has tried to play up his independent streak on the campaign trail, launching earlier this month the “Country Over Party, People Over Politics Tour,” the successor to his “Strong Independent Leadership Tour.” 

“My pitch is that our politics is hopelessly broken, that Washington needs to change, and that the only way we’re going to change it is if we don’t send typical politicians, career politicians, that are going to be a rubber stamp and just vote for whatever extreme positions of their party,” Hogan told Dispatch Politics at a Wednesday campaign stop at St. Andrew Ukrainian Orthodox Cathedral in this Washington, D.C., suburb.

Alsobrooks’ campaign strategy makes sense in a state like Maryland, where a Republican Senate candidate has not won since Charles Mathias in 1980, and is probably her best gambit against Hogan. The moderate former governor first won election in 2014 by just under 5 points and was reelected in 2018 by nearly 12 points before he was term-limited, leaving office with an approval rating of 77 percent. He is Republicans’ best chance in decades to capture a Senate seat in the state, but Alsobrooks is still favored. Though early polling saw Hogan beating both Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone, whom Alsobrooks defeated in the May Democratic primary, she took the lead soon after securing the nomination, and recent surveys have shown her winning by double digits.

Mileah Kromer, who leads the University of Maryland-Baltimore County’s Institute of Politics and wrote a book on Hogan’s gubernatorial victories, said the Republican had an “uphill battle” to victory.

“I’m not sort of in the camp that counts him out completely—but at the same time recognizing that he is now facing sort of an electorate that is not really focused on statewide issues, but rather sort of national issues,” she said. A poll the institute released earlier this month had Alsobrooks up 48 percent to 39 percent, even though a greater percentage of respondents held a favorable opinion of Hogan. Additionally, 54 percent of likely voters in the survey said they wanted the election to result in Democrats controlling the Senate.

For Alsobrooks, that’s the reason why Marlyanders who voted for Hogan for governor should select her for the Senate. “This is so much bigger than him,” she said of Hogan while speaking to reporters during a visit to a Prince George’s County barber shop Tuesday. “What it is about is making sure that we have a majority in the Senate that will support reproductive freedoms for women, that will also support sensible gun legislation, that will allow us to really work against gun violence—economic opportunity for the middle class. … These are the issues that are on the ballot, and we recognize that handing a majority to the Republican Party is not, in my opinion, in the best interest of our state or of our country.”

Speaking to reporters at a Potomac, Maryland, deli on Wednesday, Hogan said he’d heard concerns from voters that his election would give the Senate to the GOP, but he argued that Republicans will likely control the body anyway.

“Almost any national news outlet has said I’m the least likely to be the one to flip it,” he told Dispatch Politics. “There are 10 other more likely states, and I think West Virginia and Montana are pretty much done. They’re already at 51. They’re likely to be at 52 or 53 or [54].

“But I think I will be the one that stands up and makes a difference. I’ve proven for 10 years that I’m willing to stand up to the people in my party, and I’ve been probably the most outspoken critic of Donald Trump in the party.”

One issue that will be a motivating factor for the state’s residents is abortion. Though it’s already legal in Maryland, voters will have the opportunity to enshrine a constitutional right to abortion through a ballot measure on Election Day. Nevertheless, fears persist that Republicans could take federal action to restrict it. “I think reproductive rights is certainly the most prominent and immediate example of the perils of Republican control of the legislative branch in the wake of the Dobbs decision,” said Maryland-based Democratic strategist Len Foxwell, who’s worked in the state’s politics for years. 

Hogan has sought to insulate himself from attacks by Alsobrooks on the issue of abortion. 

In his first TV ad of the general election, he promised to support legislation to codify Roe v. Wade, attempting to soothe the fears of an electorate that worries a GOP Congress could enact a federal ban on abortion. Although Hogan backs a “bipartisan compromise” to enshrine the right to abortion federally, he is still to the right of Alsobrooks because he does not support the Women’s Health Protection Act, a Democratic bill that Alsobrooks has promised to cosponsor and would prohibit various restrictions on abortion.

During her visit to the senior living facility, Alsobrooks expressed doubts about Hogan’s sincerity about his position on the issue, noting that the Maryland legislature overrode Hogan’s 2022 veto of an expansive abortion bill. But she also accused him of knowing that a Republican-held Senate would not hold votes on bills pertaining to abortion rights or other Democratic priorities.

“If the Republicans have the majority in the Senate, they get to decide what’s voted on, and they will never bring to a vote the things that matter to us,” she told residents.

In response, Hogan restated that Republicans will likely take the majority regardless of the outcome of the Maryland race and said he would try to persuade more Republicans of his position.

“I’ll continue to fight, along with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and other Republicans. Hopefully we can convince more. I mean, you need to get to 60 votes, and I would vote with the Democrats if that was the case,” he told Dispatch Politics, referring to the number of votes needed to end a filibuster.

The result on Election Day will determine whether Marylanders are receptive to his pitch on abortion, but it is unclear whether he will be able to win over blue-state voters on an issue Democrats have long made their own.

“If you have a Republican mimicking a Democrat on an issue of core importance to the electorate, why not just vote for the real thing?” Foxwell said.

Eyes on the Trail

• President Joe Biden is in Arizona today to visit the Gila River Indian Community near Phoenix and will deliver remarks at the Gila Crossing Community School. On Saturday, Biden travels to Pittsburgh for “political engagements.”
• Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns this evening in Houston, where her remarks will focus on abortion rights. On Saturday, the Democratic nominee heads to Kalamazoo, Michigan, to host a campaign rally with former first lady Michelle Obama aimed at encouraging early voting. On Sunday, Harris will campaign in Philadelphia.
• Former President Donald Trump will hold a press conference today in Austin, Texas, discussing border security. While in Austin, the Republican nominee will sit for a podcast interview with Joe Rogan, host of the Joe Rogan Experience. In the evening, Trump visits Traverse City, Michigan, for a campaign rally. On Saturday, he hosts an afternoon rally in Novi, Michigan, before heading to State College, Pennsylvania, for a second rally.
• Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz campaigns for Harris today in Pennsylvania, with stops in Philadelphia, Allentown, and Scranton. On Saturday, the Democratic vice presidential nominee campaigns for Harris in Arizona, with stops in Window Rock for a “Native Americans for Harriz-Walz” event and in Phoenix to headline a rally.
• Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio campaigns for Trump this afternoon in Raeford, North Carolina. In the evening, the Republican vice presidential nominee participates in a Trump campaign town hall meeting in Monroe, North Carolina. On Saturday morning, Vance headlines a campaign rally in Atlanta before heading to Erie, Pennsylvania, for a late afternoon campaign event.
• This weekend, second gentleman Doug Emhoff makes multiple stops to encourage early voting for Harris in key swing states, including visits Saturday to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Sunday to metro Atlanta. 
• Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz campaigns for Harris today in Wisconsin, with stops in Green Bay and Marinette County. She also is scheduled to campaign for the vice president in Marquette, Michigan, where actress Mandy Moore will join her.
• Former Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard on Saturday headline a “Team Trump Reclaim America Tour” event in Charlotte. Kennedy waged an independent presidential bid before dropping out and endorsing Trump. Gabbard is a former congresswoman from Hawaii.
• Donald Trump Jr. campaigns for his father Monday evening in Coplay, Pennsylvania.
• Kimberly Guilfoyle on Friday will campaign for Trump in Newport, Pennsylvania, as part of a “Team Trump” bus tour. On Saturday, Guilfoyle headlines a “Team Trump Women’s Tour” event in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
• West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice campaigns for Trump on Saturday evening in Erie, Pennsylvania, joined by his pet English Bulldog, “Babydog.”
• Former President Barack Obama headlines a Harris campaign rally today in Charlotte.

Notable and Quotable

“It’s like pent-up spirit. … It’s like a boiler waiting to explode.”

—Former President Donald Trump, speaking about the crowd at his Las Vegas rally, October 24, 2024