What the Republican Ripple Means for Biden in 2024

A good night for his party could complicate efforts to push the president aside ahead of 2024.

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President Joe Biden. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images.)

In the weeks leading up to Election Day, the White House enjoyed a brief moratorium on one of the more uncomfortable news developments of the midterm cycle: intra-Democratic Party speculation about whether President Joe Biden should run for reelection in 2024. 

Could Tuesday night’s election results buy him more time?

Skepticism surrounding a prospective Biden reelection campaign has long centered on how much the president’s chronic unpopularity would hurt his fellow Democrats in the midterms. Already bogged down by inflationary headwinds and the understanding that midterms traditionally hurt the party in power, Democrats trudged toward Election Day expecting a red tsunami. 

That didn’t materialize—it wasn’t even a wave. At best the GOP looks poised to recapture the House by a slim majority, and its path to winning control of the Senate grew increasingly narrow as Election Night went on. Election results are still being tabulated in a number of Senate battlegrounds, with a number of races still too close to call as of Wednesday morning.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Mpkindall

    IDK, a lot of wishcasting here. But here’s mine. Biden’s a very competitive old pol. I think he’d have resisted mightily being pushed out after a mid-term drubbing. But . . . his team at least held serve in the mid-terms and in the process weakened Trump substantially. Right now, Biden could plausibly declare victory and pass the torch. It wouldn’t look or feel like he was shown the door. That might appeal to him.

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  2. Retired Prosecutor

    I get the impression that the 2022 the results have provided further encouragement for Biden to run in 2024. These results appear to make any primary challenge unlikely, assuming nothing medically changes in terms of Biden's health. Running for President is an incredible mental and physical challenge and if he runs, the Dems will have to also accept the fact that "health things" could happen during the campaign, a definite risk when your candidate is 82. Also we know with some confidence that the state of the economy will be worse that it is now. The next two years will be instructive as to Biden's mental and physical health, and how those items appear to the electorate.

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  3. Clarity

    After the 2020 election, a shrinking House majority of 5, a 50-50 Senate "majority"(a gift from Trump) and winning the Electoral College by margins of 0.6% or less (and his home state by 1.2%) did not magically make Biden into FDR - though many initially acted as if it had.

    More electoral gifts from Trump in the 2022 midterms, an approval rating in the low 40's, an 80th birthday, 50% of his party not wanting him to run for re-election and rapidly increasing gaffes won't even make Biden into the Jimmy Carter of 1980.

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  4. Genny

    It is not impossible for Trump to be the nominee again. DeSantis would have to bow out and let Trump run unopposed. I don't think that's likely, though. I'm sure Mrs. DeSantis knows that would be bad for the country. But if he did, and the country was forced to relive Biden/Trump, Biden would win again and Trump would plan his comeback in '28, and the electorate would sigh and keep counting as each of them get older, hoping.

    But if DeSantis runs, he'll set the tone for the election. An even older and frailer Biden won't compare well against a man with young children. If DeSantis gives into his demons and keeps up the extremist talk, voters in the general will not like it. If he tames that beast, he could win against Biden, especially if Democrats are serving leftovers again. If there was a new Democrat, they might have a chance against a not-crazy Republican.

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    1. Clarity

      Ann: There is no reason to assume that Republican primary voters will vote for DeSantis in 2024 even if they think DeSantis is the stronger candidate. 2024 is Trump's opportunity to get revenge for the election stolen in 2020; DeSantis's term will come later. DeSantis knows that Trump will never forgive him for challenging or beating him in 2024. Even if he wins the nomination in 2024, a scarred DeSantis knows that Trump will encourage his supporters to not vote for DeSantis, just like he did to Joe O'Dea. Winning the nomination in the spring of 2024 would be a Pyrrhic victory and lead to defeat in the November. Most importantly, DeSantis is only 48, with a great future in front of him if he chooses not to tangle with Trump in 2024.

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      1. Genny

        DeSantis pushes his version of the MAGA message, which will no longer be popular in '28. His time is now or never.

        Trump and Trump voters could certainly throw away '24.

        But if enough conservative voters want politics instead of exclusively popularity-waning culture messages, DeSantis is their way out because no one else can garner enough support. Hogan needs to wake up from that dream he's having about being a '24 contender. It's D or it's Trump. That's it.

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  5. Avatar photo
    BWG

    Joe Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term. That's gotta give even the most enthusiastic Biden supporter some concern, given his clearly evident cognitive challenges right now.

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    Pat Riot

    After Fetterman I think we can conclude that a candidate's "physicality" doesn't matter anymore. And presidential approval doesn't matter either. Clearly there are millions of Democratic voters who "disapprove" for one reason or another but will still vote Democrat and will still vote for Biden over Trump.

    Republicans call Biden "senile" but that's just name calling and it changes exactly zero net votes. And remember Trump is going to be running against Mr. "PERSON WOMAN MAN CAMERA TV" word salad emitter.

    And Biden's legislative record has been truly spectacular. I don't know why Democrats didn't run on the BBB elements that were passed and the bi-partisan infrastructure bill, but those are indeed Biden accomplishments and there will be bridges and highways completed by 2024 that he can point at.

    And he will have likely won the war in Ukraine and sent our most dangerous rival of the last 75 years heading for the hills. And he will get credit for leaving Afghanistan because people will forget the tactical situation and simply be glad that we're out of out longest war.

    Biden could be in a coma for all of 2024 and it probably wouldn't change any votes. Democrats vote for the partisan placeholder of the president, not the man himself, and this is true for the majority of Republicans too (although Trump clearly has a cult of personality associated with his own physical person).

    If I put down my own personal wishcasting, I'd probably have to conclude that Biden will probably be the nominee and is probably the best pick to beat Trump.

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    Blake Fischer

    I’m confident I don’t know the history of all the presidential races, but isn’t this going to be a unique situation? We have a president possibly seeking another term against the guy he beat previously, but the president only polls well head to head against THAT specific candidate. I think there’s a bit of “who’s going to blink first” situation. If Trump announces soon, will that solidify Biden’s nomination since it probably won’t really matter who they put up against Trump because they’ll likely win? In the 2020 field, I think Biden was the only candidate who could beat him. In 2024, I think almost anyone can. And I wonder how much what turned out to look more like a “red sneeze” midterms insulate Biden from blame from his party.

    I’d love to see neither of them be the nominees, and don’t really care the path we have to take to get there. Maybe they’ll both move into a retirement home together and film a hit new reality show?

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    Scarlette Tarte

    Pete is great, but he needs to be a governor first. Polis in Colorado is good, Whitmer is good. I also would like to see the party foster and support Cheri Beasley, she is impressive. Newsome, not my favorite, but he could certainly make a presidential run. Andy Beashear, Pritzker, Phil Murphy, Amy Klobuchar...there are several good Democrats.

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    1. ILiu

      Yet they get none of the attention from the mainstream media and Twitter. Any of those folks you listed (other than Newsom) would win in a heartbeat against Trump and be hold an advantage against DeSantis. Yet I've never seen a puff piece for Phil Murphy or Amy Klobuchar. It seems like only folks who lose elections (Stacey Abrams, Beto) get love from the Dems.

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    DougAz

    Gretchen Whitmer.

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    Michael Falciani

    I’m hoping for Newsom. It’s about time we had a rich, white, hetero male to be in charge of the Executive branch of government!

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    1. CB76

      They do have a hell of a track record.

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