Key Congressional Races Highlight Michigan’s Tuesday Primaries

Happy Monday! One of our reporters was a high school theater kid and can sympathize with Kamala Harris’ veepstakes contenders. Waiting for the call must be like waiting for the cast list times a million.

Up to Speed

• Vice President Kamala Harris clinched the Democratic nomination for president Friday, securing enough of the delegates during a virtual roll call vote. The vote was mostly a formality, as a majority of delegates had already endorsed the vice president, who was the only one who qualified for the roll call. The virtual vote before the Democratic National Convention beginning August 19 ensures the party will meet Ohio’s ballot certification deadline, which falls before the convention, protecting Harris from the threat of legal challenges to her candidacy. 
• Speculation ran amok over the weekend after Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker posted a video on X promoting Harris for president and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro for vice president. “I can’t think of a better partner than our governor, Josh Shapiro,” Parker says in a clip from a rally included in the video. It was unclear whether Parker was speaking as though Harris had already made her running mate decision or whether she was urging Harris to pick Shapiro. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported Parker was merely showing support for Shapiro, not making an announcement, citing a source close to the mayor.
• Former President Donald Trump has declined to participate in a scheduled debate with Harris on ABC, saying he would only debate the vice president at a faceoff Fox News has pitched to both candidates. The Republican nominee agreed to the ABC News debate before President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid.  “I have agreed with FoxNews to debate Kamala Harris on Wednesday, September 4th,” he said in a Truth Social post. “The Debate was previously scheduled against Sleepy Joe Biden on ABC, but has been terminated in that Biden will no longer be a participant, and I am in litigation against ABC Network and George Slopadopoulos, thereby creating a conflict of interest.” Trump referenced a defamation suit that he filed against the network before he agreed to the debate with Biden originally planned for September 10. In another post, he said Harris “doesn’t have the mental capacity to do a REAL Debate against me.” Harris quickly agreed to the ABC News debate in Biden’s place. Citing Trump’s previous offer to debate anywhere, anytime, she mocked the former president for pulling out. “It’s interesting how ‘any time, any place’ becomes ‘one specific time, one specific safe space,’” she wrote. “I’ll be there on September 10th, like he agreed to. I hope to see him there.”
• Trump attacked Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, his wife Marty Kemp, and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger both before and during his campaign rally in Atlanta on Saturday. “Brian Kemp should focus his efforts on fighting Crime, not fighting Unity and the Republican Party!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “His wife said, ‘Thank you Sir, we’ll never be able to make it up to you!’ Now she says she won’t Endorse me, and is going to ‘write in Brian Kemp’s name.’ Well, I don’t want her Endorsement, and I don’t want his.” Kemp responded on X, telling Trump to “leave my family out of it” but emphasized that his focus was on “winning this November.” Raffensperger also replied on X: “History has taught us this type of message doesn’t sell well here in Georgia, sir.”
• The Harris campaign on Sunday unveiled “Republicans for Harris,” according to a press release, part of an effort first launched when Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee. The program aims to win over “Trump skeptical” Republicans and other disaffected conservatives. Under the initiative, the Harris campaign will host “Republican-featured events, door knocking, phone banking in key electoral battlegrounds, spearheading letter-to-the-editor campaigns, and building local networks with Republican organizations, businesses, and community groups,” the campaign said in a statement. The Harris campaign also will fund advertising that targets “independent, moderate, and conservative-leaning” voters that features Republicans who are voting for the vice president. The campaign is touting endorsements from several prominent Republicans, including former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, former Trump administration press secretary Stephanie Grisham, and former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan. 

Pro-Israel Progressive Faces Primary Challenge in Michigan

Rep. Shri Thanedar is a quirky freshman congressman representing one of the bluest districts in Michigan and who has recently become a strong supporter of Israel. In the state’s Democratic primary Tuesday, he will attempt to fend off an anti-Israel member of the Detroit City Council who has gained significant local endorsements.

That candidate, Mary Waters, has the backing of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, the advocacy group Black Mayors of Michigan, and regional leaders of the United Auto Workers labor union. Like a plurality of the voters in the Detroit-centered district, Waters is black and has said the district needs someone “who understands the unique needs of African Americans.” She’s raised only $150,000 to Thanedar’s $7 million (with $5 million coming from the congressman’s own pocket), but Waters is trying to argue the incumbent is unresponsive to constituents’ needs. 

Though Thanedar is a dedicated progressive who is generally aligned with the most left-wing Democrats in the House, he has become notable for his support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attacks. A Waters victory, however, would give Michigan’s 13th District a representative who opposes military aid to the Jewish state. 

“My position has been very clear on that, and the reason is, number one, is that I don’t like killing. I don’t care who does it,” Waters told Dispatch Politics in an interview. “Number two, we need our money back here. Sending millions and millions of dollars for war is just something that I’m not in favor of.”

Her position contrasts with that of Thanedar, who voted in favor of providing weapons to Israel in Congress’ most recent foreign aid package passed in April. Though he is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and aligned with far-left “Squad” representatives on most issues, he stood behind Israel and its right to defend itself after October 7. In a more recent release expressing support for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, he acknowledged that “we cannot achieve long-lasting peace and security in the region with Hamas.” He has also received support from pro-Israel Democrats.

“We’re grateful for Congressman Thanedar’s support for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and believe he is well positioned to win renomination and reelection,” Mark Mellman, a veteran Democratic consultant who founded Democratic Majority for Israel, told Dispatch Politics. Thanedar, who serves on the House Committee on Homeland Security, also voted for aid to Ukraine and Taiwan as part of the spring supplemental aid package. 

Meanwhile, Waters would not answer basic questions from Dispatch Politics about her foreign policy views beyond confirming her opposition to aid to Israel. Asked whether her principle of keeping money stateside would apply to Ukraine as well, she indicated it would. But she then waffled when pressed for her policy prescriptions on national security, refusing to give specifics beyond cutting the Pentagon’s budget, only giving her “general principles” on defense.

“I’ll be giving you some policy later after I’m elected, when I have time to sit down with policy people and we review all of those things, because there’s a lot of things that need to be reviewed, and I intend to do exactly that,” she said.

In her view, an effective legislator takes the time to look at what is put in front of them on issues. “You’re going to have to make sure that you educate yourself—all the things that are going on in Taiwan and China, all the things that are even going on with Israel and Gaza and even with Ukraine and Russia,” she said. But that attitude led her to be wishy-washy even on moral sentiments toward Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“Russia, are the big bad guys in my opinion,” Waters said. “That’s just how I see them, and I could be wrong. I don’t know for sure. And so, I want to learn more about the needs of Ukraine and why we’re staying over there for so long, why we’re providing aid all this time.”

Waters and her supporters have not made foreign policy a focal point of her campaign, instead arguing that Thanedar has not delivered for his district. She said in her interview that the incumbent has been “missing in action” and that being in Congress was “about ego for him.” 

Thanedar told Dispatch Politics that he has brought lots of resources to Detroit.

“We have gotten a lot of money for EPA, for lead pipe removal,” he said. “There is just a ton of money being brought. Nobody has brought in more money than me. So, we’ve done the work, and we have served the city well, and we will continue to serve the city well.”

Thanedar, who is Indian American, also responded to concerns about Detroit not having black representation, as he and Arab American Rep. Rashida Tlaib represent the two districts that encompass the city.

“The people of Detroit, the African American community, has overwhelmingly supported me in every election I have run, and I have confidence that on August 6, I will be victorious with the great support of the African American community,” he said.

However, some political observers have argued that the crowded field that featured several black candidates in the 2022 primary split the black vote and paved a way to victory for Thanedar. At the same time, Thanedar clobbered a black candidate in the general election that cycle: Republican nominee Martell Bivings, who is the sole candidate in the GOP primary this year.

Two Republicans Vie For a Chance to Flip a House Seat

Republicans in a Michigan swing district will choose between two mainstream conservatives in the state’s primary Tuesday, hoping to win back a seat they lost in 2022 after nominating a candidate who peddled former President Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated stolen election claims.

Paul Hudson and Michael Markey are vying for the GOP nomination in the Grand Rapids-anchored 3rd Congressional District and the right to challenge Rep. Hillary Scholten. The National Republican Congressional Committee has made ousting the incumbent Democrat a top priority. While there is a distinction between the two candidates—Markey is running in the more grassroots, pro-Trump lane while Hudson is not making the former president a focal point—neither contender disputes the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

That’s in sharp contrast to the district’s 2022 Republican nominee, John Gibbs. Riding a Trump endorsement (and with some help from the Democrats), Gibbs ousted then-Rep. Peter Meijer in the primary. Meijer was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach the former president in the aftermath of the riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Gibbs contended there were “mathematically impossible” anomalies that led him to question the results of the 2020 presidential election. He lost to Scholten in the general election. While new district lines in 2022 did not do him any favors, Gibbs’ extremism was a major factor in his defeat.

“The voters of this district are always looking for practical, common-sense lawmakers who actually get things done. This is not a district where, if you’re committed to the fringe policies that people don’t really care about here, that is not who voters are looking for,” Hudson, an attorney who lost last cycle as a GOP-nominated candidate for the Michigan Supreme Court, told Dispatch Politics.

Markey, an entrepreneur, endorsed policies such as voter identification laws and a move to paper ballots, but he encouraged Republicans to run on other issues.

“Republicans must also focus on the future and share an agenda that addresses inflation, our border crisis, and gets the government off our backs,” he said. “If we want to win in November, we have to focus on getting people to the polls by sharing a message encouraging them to get off the sidelines and make their voices heard. We can combat any irregularities if we overwhelm the polls with our voters.”

Both candidates are running mainstream campaigns and emphasizing issues such as the economy and border security. But differences have emerged. 

Hudson’s campaign website promises “common sense for crazy times,” saying he’s looked at the country’s government and asked: “Is this really the best we can do?”

“I’ve been around the district and connecting with voters and making the case that if you’re looking for what this district has always looked for—this is Gerald Ford’s district—if you’re looking for a common-sense, conservative problem solver, then this is a campaign for you,” he told Dispatch Politics.

Meanwhile, Markey’s website calls him a “disrupter” who will “disrupt the Washington status quo, not act as a crutch for the Washington establishment.” But in his interview with us, he indicated that another person involved in his campaign had come up with the branding, of which he was skeptical at first.

“I’m like, ‘Disrupter, what does that mean? You know, some people would say that’s got a negative connotation,’” he said in response to a query about the branding. He added that the label came from his entrepreneurial experience and said it was necessary to “disrupt the path that this country’s going down.”

While there has been no public polling of the race, the candidates have put up formidable fundraising numbers. Hudson has raised about $630,000, with $250,000 coming from his own pocket, and Markey has brought in more than $790,000, nearly $470,000 of which are his own. As for the general election versus Scholten, the Cook Political Report rates the 3rd District as “likely Democratic.”

Missouri’s GOP Primary Likely Will Determine the Next Governor

For a century, Missouri was “the bellwether state,” failing to vote for the winning presidential candidate only once from 1904 to 2004. Since then, however, the Midwestern state has voted consistently Republican, meaning the winner of Missouri’s GOP gubernatorial primary on Tuesday will most likely become the state’s next chief executive. 

Nine Republicans are vying to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Parson, but only three are considered contenders: Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, and state Sen. Bill Eigel. Polling conducted last week by Remington Research Group showed Kehoe and Ashcroft tied at 29 percent, and Eigel at 18 percent. 

That tightness has not been lost on the Republican nominee Donald Trump, who won the state by more than 15 points in 2020. 

In a Truth Social post July 27, the former president endorsed all three candidates. “All have had excellent careers, and have been with me from the beginning,” he wrote. “They are MAGA and America First all the way. I can’t hurt two of them by Endorsing one so, therefore, I’m going to Endorse, for Governor of the Great State of Missouri, Jay Ashcroft, Mike Kehoe, and Bill Eigel.” All three candidates have touted Trump’s endorsement, without mentioning it was split three ways.

“In a race like this, name recognition is a big deal,” Daniel Butler, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis, told Dispatch Politics. And in Missouri politics, one of the biggest names is Ashcroft, as in John Ashcroft, the former governor, U.S. senator, and attorney general under President George W. Bush.

Politics was definitely not the path Jay Ashcroft assumed he would take when his father served as governor. “I grew up in that and understood the importance of public service and politics,” he said in an interview, “but I was a 17-year-old kid that … said I’m never going to politics.” 

Instead, Ashcroft first opted to study engineering, a background he says has influenced his political ideology. “Normal politicians fix the blame, but engineers fix the problem,” said Ashcroft, who later went to law school. Elected secretary of state in 2016, he made enforcing election integrity a priority by backing a 2022 law that requires a photo ID to vote, permits quarterly audits of voter registration lists, and mandates paper ballots in elections. Seeming to straddle the GOP’s traditional and Trumpian wings, Ashcroft received endorsements from former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Faith and Freedom Coalition chair Ralph Reed, 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and Richard Grenell, who served as Trump’s acting director of national intelligence.

Ashcroft, Butler said, has used his statewide office to “help gain name recognition and allow him to take positions and signal clear to voters issues that are important to Republican primary voters.” Just last week, Ashcroft filed suit against the Biden administration over a 2021 executive order to expand voter registration, alleging federal overreach.

All three top candidates for the GOP nomination have stressed issues such as border security and support for the state’s abortion ban, and all three back restrictions against certain foreign entities, from countries such as China, purchasing Missouri farmland. The Republican winner will face one of five Democrats vying for their party’s nomination, likely Missouri House Minority Leader Crystal Quade or businessman Mike Hamra.

Despite Ashcroft’s famous last name, Kehoe has leveraged his ties to the state’s business leaders and Parson’s endorsement to amass a large campaign war chest. 

His campaign and joint fundraising PAC, American Dream PAC, have raised more than $11.4 million, surpassing the roughly $4 million raised by Ashcroft’s campaign and PAC. But Ashcroft, who had less than $100,000 cash on hand as of July 25, has received an eleventh-hour boost of at least $2 million in ad spending from the Stand for Us PAC, which has aired ads slamming Kehoe. Kehoe’s campaign reported having $1.2 million in cash remaining.

Kehoe’s fundraising advantage “allows him to play catch-up in the name recognition game and get out his message of continued stability [and] continuing the path of the current administration,” Butler said.

Kehoe bills himself as a “common sense” conservative in the traditional mold. He built his career in the automotive industry, purchased a van conversion and ambulance manufacturing company, and went on to buy a Ford dealership in Jefferson City. The former head of the Missouri Highway and Transportation Commission, Kehoe won a state Senate seat in 2010, eventually becoming majority floor leader. When Parson, then the state’s lieutenant governor, became governor in 2018 following Eric Greitens’ resignation amid multiple scandals, Parson appointed Kehoe lieutenant governor. 

In that role, Kehoe has made the economy a central focus of his policy work, aiming to highlight Missouri businesses and foster job creation. 

“I’m running against people who are of the ‘burn it down’ variety,” Kehoe told supporters last month at a campaign stop. “I’m just not a burn it down guy.”

That guy would be Eigel, who attracted national attention last year after a video surfaced of him using a flamethrower to burn a pile of cardboard boxes, with social media posts incorrectly characterizing the stunt as “a literal book burning.” Eigel clarified on X that he was showing “what I am going to do to the leftist policies and RINO corruption of the Jeff City swamp. 

“But let’s be clear, you bring those woke pornographic books to Missouri schools to try to brainwash our kids, and I’ll burn those too – on the front lawn of the governor’s mansion.”

Positioning himself as the anti-establishment candidate, Eigel was elected to the state Senate in 2016 and was a founding member of the Senate Conservative Caucus, which advocates for limited government, lower taxes, and individual freedoms. “We have some real static dynamics in Jefferson City, where the powerful hold sway, and a lot of our government is focused on servicing the powerful special interest, not doing what’s right for the people of this state,” Eigel told Dispatch Politics.

Of the three top GOP candidates, Eigel is the one who has most closely aligned himself with Trump, calling himself a “steadfast supporter” and hosting events relating to Trump’s campaign. “We need somebody that’s going to confront and fight the swamp,” Eigel said. “I’m that guy, and as a result of that confrontation, Missouri is going to be a better place.”

Notable and Quotable

“If she picks Shapiro on Tuesday, Donald Trump created Josh Shapiro. … He endorsed Mastriano—the weakest Republican candidate in that field.”

—Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on ABC’s This Week, referencing former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary in Pennsylvania of Doug Mastriano, who went on to lose to Josh Shapiro, August 4, 2024.