The Texas Senate Race Is Too Close for Ted Cruz’s Comfort

Happy Tuesday! Election Day is 49 days away. Today is Constitution Day, and we think, therefore, that it is appropriate to link to the text of that wonderful document in our intro.

Up to Speed

• Former President Donald Trump placed the blame squarely on Vice President Kamala Harris for the attempt on his life that occurred over the weekend. “The Rhetoric, Lies, as exemplified by the false statements made by Comrade Kamala Harris during the rigged and highly partisan ABC Debate, and all of the ridiculous lawsuits specifically designed to inflict damage on Joe’s, then Kamala’s, Political Opponent, ME, has taken politics in our Country to a whole new level of Hatred, Abuse, and Distrust,” he said on X. “Because of this Communist Left Rhetoric, the bullets are flying, and it will only get worse!” During last week’s debate, Trump blamed Harris for the first assassination attempt against him. “This is the one that weaponized. Not me,” he said. “She weaponized. I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me.”
• The suspected would-be assassin, Ryan Wesley Routh, stands accused of possession of a firearm as a felon and possession and receipt of a firearm with an obliterated serial number, the Justice Department announced Monday. Court records revealed that Routh waited near the golf course Trump was visiting for approximately 12 hours before authorities caught him on Saturday. The Secret Service said that he neither had Trump in his line of sight nor did he ever fire his weapon at the former president.
• Good news came for Harris in Pennsylvania, as a USA Today poll conducted after last week’s debate saw her leading Trump 49 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. Though Harris’ lead is within the 4.4 percent margin of error, the results represent the first high-quality poll in the state—which could decide this fall’s election—since Harris and Trump squared off last Tuesday. Harris also led Trump in the bellwether counties of Northampton and Erie by 5 points and 4 points, respectively.
• The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled Monday that independent presidential candidate Cornel West will not appear on the ballot, a boon for Democrats. West’s presence on the ballot could have drawn progressive votes away from Harris and helped Trump, which likely explains why Democrats challenged his candidacy. Several GOP-connected lawyers and operatives have worked to help West attain ballot access in swing states, including Pennsylvania.
• A group with ties to Democratic political operatives called the Patriots Run Project has recruited right-wingers—all of whom are disabled, retirees, or disabled retirees—to run independent campaigns in competitive House districts, potentially siphoning votes from Republican candidates, the Associated Press reported Monday. The group has engaged in at least six races, two in Iowa and one each in Nebraska, Montana, Virginia, and Minnesota. Though it is unclear exactly who is overseeing the effort, a company that collected signatures in at least three of the races works closely with a Democratic consulting firm called Sole Strategies. In a fourth, a company called Dynata conducted a poll apparently for one of the recruits, and a spokeswoman told AP that the sponsor was a Democratic consulting firm called Patinkin Research, but she later told the outlet she identified the customer in error.

Ted Cruz Finds Himself in Another Close Senate Battle

DALLAS—Shortly after 4 a.m. ET on September 14, Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, took to X to warn that Sen. Ted Cruz is in danger of losing a winnable race. 

“What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas ? I think i know …and i think i know his name … time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz.” LaCivita’s next tweet called for Cruz to “fire Axiom”—the consulting firm run by longtime Cruz adviser Jeff Roe, who had served as chief strategist for the super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in his challenge to Trump in the Republican primary. LaCivita pointed to a just-released poll of likely voters from Texas Public Opinion Research showing Cruz leading Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by just 4 points among registered voters. That poll followed another earlier this month from Morning Consult showing Cruz leading Allred by 5 points among likely voters. 

Is it really that close? Is this just a nasty moment in a rivalry between two Republican strategists? Or another entry in the Texas-is-turning-blue narrative that’s a favorite of political journalists? Who knows? 

In 2018, Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke by 214,921 votes out of more than 8.3 million cast—50.9 to 48.3—so a tight race isn’t without precedent. And Cruz, who has gone from being one of Trump’s fiercest critics to one of his most shameless boosters (at least in public) is campaigning like his career depends on it. Cruz’s relationship with Trump, and his willingness to do just about anything for the former president, were among the reasons former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney told voters she’d made a trip to Dallas on Monday to support Allred. 

In a discussion with Allred moderated by Dr. Kneeland Youngblood that lasted roughly an hour, Cheney offered a brutal critique of Cruz—one that was much harsher than the assessment provided by his actual opponent in the race. 

Cheney began by saying that she’d come to respect and admire Allred by working with him on energy issues during their time together in the House of Representatives. Allred repaid the compliment, telling the crowd that watching her operate in Republican leadership made him wish that she’d been a Democrat. 

Cheney explained her rationale for supporting Kamala Harris over Trump, despite many important policy differences, then zeroed in on Cruz. 

“I’ve known Ted Cruz for 20 years. And it’s been clear—everybody who knows Ted Cruz, and I’m sure most of you in this room know Ted Cruz, nobody thinks Ted Cruz is a man of great honor,” Cheney said, to loud laughter. “What Ted Cruz did after the 2020 election makes him clearly unfit for office. Ted Cruz, knowing—knowing that it was unconstitutional, knowing that Joe Biden had won the election, knowing that the election had been certified in every one of our states and that a legitimate slate of electors—that there were no contested slates of electors that were legitimate, knowing that, Ted Cruz put in place a proposal to reject many of those votes, to essentially reject the votes of millions of Americans, what would have been overturning the election. And he did that to please Donald Trump.”

For those reasons, Cheney said, she wouldn’t be supporting Cruz even if she didn’t know Allred. “But knowing that the people of Texas have a tremendous alternative and knowing the kind of public servant who is now occupying that Senate seat, it’s not a close call.” 

“There are issues that are connected to what’s happening at the presidential level and then there are ones that are separate, just based upon the fact that I’ve seen Colin work,” she added. “I know how he operates. I know what kind of person he is and what kind of representative he’ll be.” 

Allred delivered a more-in-sorrow-than-anger critique of Cruz, arguing that Cruz’s desire for the political spotlight was greater than his willingness to work hard on behalf of Texas voters. 

“As Liz knows, there are folks in Washington who come to work every day thinking, How can I get something done? And there are folks in office who come to work every day thinking, How can I get attention for myself? And I am, to the best of my ability, waking up every day, thinking How can I get something done? And I can say that hand to my heart. And my issue with Ted Cruz is I think he spends every day thinking, How can I get some attention to myself?”

Allred repeatedly touted his work with centrists of both parties and committed to being the most bipartisan senator in the upper chamber if he were to be elected in November. In response to questions from the audience expressing concern that Allred would campaign as a centrist and vote as a partisan Democrat, Allred criticized talk of court packing. “I oppose anything that deals with packing the courts … I have some enormous issues with some of the rulings I’ve seen from this court, but we’ve been through periods like this before in American history when the court was discordant from the public will and we’ve recovered from it,” he said. “And we had an effort—as students of history, which I think all of y’all are, know—for President [Franklin] Roosevelt to pack the court and that went down for good reason. I see no scenario where we’ll actually see that carried to fruition.” 

Eyes on the Trail

• Donald Trump holds a town hall event in Flint, Michigan, this evening. According to his campaign, the former president will be interviewed by Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who previously served as his White House press secretary.
• Michigan is an obvious priority for Republicans, and Sen. J.D. Vance will deliver remarks this afternoon in Sparta, near Grand Rapids. Then he’ll hop on a plane to Eau Claire, Wisconsin, for an event there. Vance is expected to speak about immigration at both events, the campaign said.
• Vice President Kamala Harris is in Philadelphia today for an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists. Recall that Trump’s interview with the NABJ back in July caused a stir after the Republican nominee falsely suggested the vice president downplayed her black heritage earlier in her political career.
• And Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will be touring swing states in the Southeast. The Democratic vice presidential nominee will deliver remarks in Macon, Georgia, this morning, hold a set of “political events” in Atlanta midday and then fly north to Asheville, North Carolina, to host an evening rally.

Notable and Quotable

“One thing I’ll say is that the investigation that’s going on is, believe it or not, it seems to be nonpartisan. The Democrats are just as angry about Butler [Pennsylvania] and this one as the Republicans, because it can happen to them. And they understand that and they don’t want that. And I don’t think they want it to happen to me, either. But rhetorically, it’s very dangerous what they do.”

—Former President Donald Trump on Democrats’ response to his first assassination attempt in an interview with the Washington Post, September 16, 2024