Will Dems Let Harris Run to the Middle?

It seems safe to say that if former President Donald Trump and the Republicans could have a do-over on his choice of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as running mate, they would take it.

That’s not because Vance has had a rocky launch, which he has, but because in a changed race, Vance no longer looks like a reasonable gamble. 

In President Joe Biden’s final week in the race, he was running more than 2 points behind Trump in an average of good, national polls. And a Democratic loss in the national popular vote would equate to an Electoral College wipeout for the blue team, putting states like Virginia and Minnesota in play for the first time in more than a decade.

This week, Vice President Kamala Harris’ first week as her party’s presumptive nominee, the race is tied, as you’ll see in our Statshot below. A tie is not good enough for a Democratic win, but a 2-point swing in a race that will be so narrowly contested ain’t nothing. 

Most alarming for Republicans should be the swiftness with which Harris consolidated support within the party. Even former President Barack Obama was caught off guard. The 44th president had wanted to show deference to his party’s process and not be presumptuous with an inevitable endorsement. But Democrats fell in line so fast and so fully, he had to hurry up an endorsement Friday to avoid the appearance that he was resisting.

It’s conceivable that someone will look to cause trouble for Harris, but the window is so small, it’s hard to imagine right now that there would really be a contested convention. That’s not to say that there may not be a fight and bad blood among the minority of Democrats who think they’re getting railroaded, but for now, team Harris could not have imagined a smoother launch.

But she hasn’t yet had to disappoint anyone, which is what her first big decision as the presumptive nominee will be all about: choosing a running mate. Former Attorney General Eric Holder, an Obama insider, is leading the vetting process, but what Harris has to be worried about for herself is how much leeway the Democratic base will give her.

What she needs is a moderate Democrat who can soften Republican attacks on her staunchly progressive past positions. She needs space to do what Obama was able to do in 2008 when he picked Biden and go for the general electorate confident in the support of the far left. She needs someone like Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, about whom progressives have often complained as he tried to find a way through two elections in a Republican-leaning border state.

Trump had that leeway from his own base, but squandered it on a boutique pick that delighted a subset of his core supporters, but does nothing with the voters Trump needs in order to win. 

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STATSHOT

General Election

Donald Trump: 42.2%
Kamala Harris: 42.0%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: 6.2% 

[Average includes: New York Times/Siena: Trump 43% – Harris 44% – Kennedy 5%; Ipsos/Reuters: Trump 38% – Harris 42% – Kennedy 8%; Marist/NPR/PBS: Trump 42% – Harris 42% – Kennedy 7%;  Yahoo News: Trump 43% – Harris 41% – Kennedy 5%; Quinnipiac: Trump 45% – Harris 41% – Kennedy 6%]

Generic Ballot

Democrats: 45.4%
Republicans: 45.4%

[Average includes: Echelon Insights: 48% Democrats – 47% Republicans; Noble Predictive Insights: 43% Democrats – 44% Republicans; NBC News: 47% Democrats – 46% Republicans; Marist/NPR/PBS: 46% Democrats – 44% Republicans; Wall Street Journal: 43% Democrats – 46% Republicans] 

TIME OUT: ESCAR-GO

New York Times: “For the next few weeks, Paris will be home to many of the world’s impressive athletes. … Earlier this month, the rural village of Congham, England, played host to a less likely group of athletes: dozens of garden snails. They had gathered to compete in the World Snail Racing Championships, where the world record time for completing the 13.5 inch course stands at 2 minutes flat. … ‘It isn’t the greatest spectator sport in the world,’ said Nicholas Dickinson. … But the glacial pace of the gastropods is the product of Olympic-level exertion. Most of a snail’s soft body is composed of a single, muscular foot. … It’s a form of locomotion that requires 12 times as much energy as running. … There were 85 snails, divided into eight heats, in contention for the title. The racecourse was laid out on a piece of damp fabric draped over a table. … Before each heat, Ian Haynes gave the signal for the race to begin: ‘Ready, steady, slow!’ he said. … And they were off, sort of.”

HARRIS GAINS, BUT TRUMP MAINTAINS BATTLEGROUND LEADS

The Hill: “The survey released by Emerson College Polling and The Hill on Thursday found Trump leading Harris by 5 points in Arizona, 49 percent to 44 percent; by 2 points in Georgia, 48 percent to 46 percent; by 1 point in Michigan, 46 percent to 45 percent; by 2 points in Pennsylvania, 48 percent to 46 percent; and tied with her at 47 percent in Wisconsin. … Harris notably outpaces President Biden in polling of each of the battleground states since a similar survey was released earlier this month, outperforming the president by 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 3 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania. … Young voters have shifted toward Harris: Her support increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.” 

While Team Trump dominates airwaves: Associated Press: “Kamala Harris is already facing a wave of Republican-backed attack ads questioning her personality, her progressive record and what she knew about President Joe Biden’s decline. But for now, at least, Democrats have yet to engage in the summertime advertising fight. And in a sharp reversal from much of the year, Republicans are suddenly dominating the airways. … Overall, Trump and his allies are outspending Harris’ team 25-to-1 on television and radio advertising — more than $68 million for Republicans compared to just $2.6 million for Democrats — in the period that began on Monday, the day after Biden stepped aside, through the end of August. … The numbers highlight a dangerous imbalance for Democrats at the very moment that millions of voters are re-shaping their opinions of the vice president

Trump-district Dems condemn Harris on the border: Politico: “House Republicans used their slim majority on Thursday to target Vice President Kamala Harris — and some Democrats backed the effort.  The House passed a resolution criticizing Harris for her work on the border in a 220-196 vote, an issue the GOP has identified as a key line of attack as the party pivots its election strategy to Harris. … Six Democrats voted for the resolution. … Those Democratic ‘yea’ votes were Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Yadira Caraveo (Colo.) Don Davis (N.C.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Henry Cuellar (Texas) and Mary Peltola (Alaska). … The resolution on Harris’ border role is purely symbolic and has no shot at getting taken up by the Democratic-controlled Senate.” 

A VULNERABLE TESTER WITHHOLDS KAMALA ENDORSEMENT 

Helena Independent Record: “Montana Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester’s office … confirmed the senator is not yet endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his party’s nominee for president. … ‘We’ll let the process work out and then we’ll figure (it) out,’ Tester reportedly said. … Tester previously told the Montana State News Bureau he supports an open nomination process to replace President Joe Biden. … According to The New York Times, 45 senators, including every one but Tester who is up for re-election, is backing Harris. … Tester is facing an intense re-election battle in Montana this year against Republican former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. … Now those working to unseat Tester are looking to associate him with Harris instead of Biden.”

And holds huge cash advantage over Sheehy: Montana Free Press: “Tester, seeking a fourth term, raised $6.4 million from mid-May to the end of June and has $11 million in hand. For the election cycle, the incumbent from Big Sandy has raised more than $43.7 million, a record amount. … Sheehy posted $3 million in donations from mid-May to June and has $3.2 million on hand. Since declaring his candidacy in July 2023, Sheehy has raised $13.7 million, a sum that includes $2.6 million in contributions from the candidate. … A financial edge doesn’t necessarily equate to votes. In past elections, Tester’s vote share has been better than 50% just once, while his cash advantage has at times more than doubled his opponents’ resources. In 2018, Tester outraised challenger Matt Rosendale four-to-one.” 

Texas Dems, Allred prep coordinated campaign: Texas Tribune: “U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and the Texas Democratic Party are launching a coordinated campaign to consolidate resources for races up and down the ticket. … The initiative, dubbed ‘Texas Offense,’ will allow candidates down the ballot to share data and information resources, letting different Democratic candidates better coordinate as they knock on doors, call voters and engage in other campaign activities. It’s the party’s first coordinated campaign of its kind focusing on the grassroots in over 20 years. … Having a coordinated campaign prevents duplicating outreach efforts by different Democratic candidates to the same audiences. … Allred will officially unveil the initiative at a Houston rally on Sunday — 100 days before Election Day. … The Democratic consolidation differs from past Democratic statewide campaigns, which were largely solo operations.” 

Kim out as potential Menendez replacement: New Jersey Globe: “Andy Kim won’t be on the short list of candidates Gov. Phil Murphy is considering for an appointment to Bob Menendez’s U.S. Senate seat – and neither will any of the current members of the New Jersey congressional delegation. … The decision to eliminate Kim and others as potential Senate caretakers stems from a conversation Murphy had with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … about House vacancies. … With no time left to run a special election, appointing Kim or any of the other seven House Democrats would leave Jeffries one vote short for the duration of the 118th Congress.” 

BRIEFLY

Dem challengers outraise incumbent GOP reps—Politico

After disastrous midterms, New York Dems aim for 2024 bounce back—Politico

Latino turnout could decide control of the House—CBS News

WITHIN EARSHOT: WEST WINGING IT

“I had a good chuckle—as did almost every Democrat in America.”—Sen. Mitt Romney responds to Aaron Sorkin’s New York Times op-ed that argued he should be the Democratic nominee for president.

MAILBAG

“It seems to me that we are in a very frail position right now as a country.  I’m not talking just about our politicians and leaders. I am more concerned about us, the citizens and voters. Why on earth are so many of us ignoring (or ignorant) of history, especially our own? Why are we not able to reject habitual liars and grifters who aspire to be political leaders? What would help us all make better choices and also support more honest, qualified candidates?  And is there some path back to trusting each other?”—Mary Stine, Prairie Village, Kansas

Ms. Stine,

It probably wasn’t Mark Twain who said “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” The truth in that famous and famously misattributed line is rooted in the immutability of human nature.

But it was definitely Immanuel Kant who wrote, “Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.” So we might think of it this way: The warping in the wood of our nature creates a pattern over time. Humanity’s timber is crooked mostly in the same ways, bent always toward envy, pride, and a desire to subdue others.

Which is all a long way of saying that historical periods of rectitude and decency tend to follow periods in which generations learn the consequences of giving in to our baser natures. You don’t get the peace and stability of the ’80s and ’90s without the chaos and corruption of the ’60s and ’70s.

Here’s hoping we are at the beginning of the end of a couple of decades of hard lessons about human nature and ready to enjoy another vacation from history. I know I’m ready.

All best,

c

“I … was intrigued by the King Lear comparison. Lear definitely shows signs of poorly aging judgment, stubbornness, and a pressure on his inner circle to flatter him. On the other hand, one could argue that the lesson of King Lear is ‘cling to power as long as you can, so your heirs can’t betray you’ as The Fool says in Act I Scene IV, ‘When thou clovest thy crown i’ th’ middle, and gavest away both parts, thou borest thy ass o’ th’ back o’er the dirt. Thou hadst little wit in thy bald crown when thou gavest thy golden one away.’ Anyway, I’m curious what similarities you were thinking of and also whether you think the lesson of Lear for Biden is ‘never retire’ or ‘don’t require flattery from people you trust’ or something else entirely.”—Daniel Flavin, Bozeman, Montana

Mr. Flavin,

It would seem that the lesson might be the one from John of Gaunt in Act 2, Scene 1 of Richard II:

“With eager feeding food doth choke the feeder;

 Light vanity, insatiate cormorant,

 Consuming means, soon preys upon itself.”

This is the same speech that gives us “his royal throne of kings, this sceptered isle,” but here a dying Gaunt is telling King Richard how his vanity, like the fish-greedy cormorant, has consumed him.

Biden’s great weakness in this drama seems clearly to have been ego and the belief that he alone could defeat Donald Trump when it was increasingly obvious that Biden was among the worst possible picks for Democrats. 

It takes a lot of ego to run for president, but very often, like a heavy-bellied sea bird, it sinks those who succumb to it.

Verily,

c

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CUTLINE CONTEST: HEY, BUSTER 

I am mostly able to resist the appeal of inside jokes from television shows and movies. Mostly. But I loved this week’s winner so much that it, ahem, arrested my development, as a judge of humor. If you’ve never watched the show, particularly the first three seasons, you have my deepest sympathies, but just in case, here’s a clip to explain our winner’s gag.

“You can always tell a Milford Man”—Alex Fordney, Chattanooga, Tennessee

Winner, Feline Fine Division:

“Hello Dr. Schrodinger. Is this about my campaign?”—Tom Walk, Greensboro, North Carolina

Winner, Curbed Appeal Division:

“You say you need the car keys? I think I left them in here.”—Michael Smith, Georgetown, Kentucky

Winner, Adult Contemporary Division:

“Allllll by myyyyseeEeelf, don’t wanna be, allll by myyyseeEeelf anymore”—Jonathan Mahlum, Orting, Washington

Winner, Big Effing Deal Division:

“Sorry Obama, you can’t come in. Jillbilly says if she sees you with me she will run you over with her car.”—Doug Leo, Scottsdale, Arizona

Winner, Morning Joe Division:

“Is Nancy out there?”—Linda McKee, DuBois, Pennsylvania

Winner, Hard Target Division:

“Just in case there’s a serial right ear shooter out there, I’m staying right here.”—Paul Williams, Shaker Heights, Ohio

Winner, Two Scoops Division:

“President Biden hovers in the basement doorway, contemplating whether he should head down for the rest of the campaign and whether he prefers butter pecan or rum raisin ice cream.”—Cannon Alsobrook, Smyrna, Georgia

Winner, Hands Free Division:

“Peekaboo, I see you!”—Susan Carusi, Brentwood, Tennessee

Winner, Señor Wences Division:

“S’awright”—Dave Carter, Palmer, Alaska

Winner, One Shining Moment Division:

“Here’s Joey!”—Jack Funke, Poplar Bluff, Missouri

Winner, Serling Silver Division:

“Wandering the halls of the White House. We find a bewildered octogenarian lost and lonely. Opening a door to a room he had never seen before. Unknowingly President Joe Biden has just entered The Twilight Zone.”—Kevin Cook, Fort Worth, Texas

Winner, Tony Award Winners Division:

“Emulating his former colleague Diane Feinstein, President Biden learns he’s no longer a candidate for reelection as he opens the door to ‘the room where it happens.’”—Dan Burch, Turlock, California

BONELESS OR LESS BONES?

AP: “Consumers cannot expect boneless chicken wings to actually be free of bones, a divided Ohio Supreme Court ruled Thursday. … In a 4-3 ruling, the Supreme Court said Thursday that ‘boneless wings’ refers to a cooking style, and that [plaintiff] Michael Berkheimer should’ve been on guard against bones since it’s common knowledge that chickens have bones. … ‘A diner reading “boneless wings” on a menu would no more believe that the restaurant was warranting the absence of bones in the items than believe that the items were made from chicken wings,’ Justice Joseph Deters wrote for the majority. The dissenting justices called Deters’ reasoning ‘utter jabberwocky,’ … ‘When they read the word boneless, they think that it means “without bones,” as do all sensible people,’ Justice Michael Donnelly wrote in dissent.”

Nate Moore contributed to this report.