Will Vibes or Issues Motivate Pennsylvania Voters?

Happy Tuesday! Election Day is 28 days away. David and Mike are in Erie, Pennsylvania. And our favorite Pittsburghese pronunciation we heard yesterday is a tie between steel (sounds like “still”) and downtown (sounds like “dahn-tahn”).

Up to Speed

• A new national poll of likely voters from the New York Times and Siena College saw Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump. According to the poll, which was conducted between September 29 and October 6, 49 percent of likely voters support Harris and 46 percent support Trump, with a margin of error of 2.4 points. That’s close, but it’s a shift from the Times/Siena poll of likely voters from last month, which found Harris and Trump tied at 47 percent. It’s also close to the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, which has Harris ahead by 2.1 points. 
• Harris sat down with Bill Whitaker on CBS’ 60 Minutes for an interview that aired Monday night. Trump had originally agreed to participate as well, but the campaign backed out before filming. Harris had trouble answering questions about what is arguably her most vulnerable issue, border security, deflecting when Whitaker asked her whether it was a mistake for President Joe Biden to loosen Trump-era executive branch immigration policies. “It’s a long-standing problem, and solutions are at hand, and from day one, literally, we have been offering solutions,” she said. Pressed on the question, she said the administration had cut the flow of illegal immigration and fentanyl “by half,” but she added that “we need Congress to be able to act to actually fix the problem.”
• Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, sat down separately with Whitaker, who asked about his false claims that he was in Hong Kong during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. “I think folks know who I am, and I think they know the difference between someone expressing emotion, telling a story, getting a date wrong, rather than a pathological liar like Donald Trump,” he said. Walz has made false or exaggerated claims about multiple aspects of his life, including his military service and the type of fertility treatment he and his wife used.
• Former President Barack Obama is expected to be a force on the trail to help Harris and other Democrats in tough races during the final weeks of the campaign, The Hill reported Monday. Having already endorsed Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan’s Senate race  and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland’s Senate contest, Obama will campaign for Harris in Pennsylvania Thursday. “He does still pack a punch, and that is why despite the hand-wringing and complaining each cycle, they wait until the end so that he’s not overused and has the most impact,” Democratic strategist Eddie Vale told The Hill, comparing the former president to the New York Yankees’ Hall of Fame closer, Mariano Rivera.
• In addition to its efforts to support Trump in the race for the White House, Elon Musk’s America PAC is spending big to help Republicans across the country in the party’s fight to maintain control of the House, having shelled out more than $8.2 million in 18 competitive races. The group’s top investments include more than $950,000 to help New York Rep. Mike Lawler—who is trying to fend off a challenge from former Rep. Mondaire Jones—and more than $760,000 for California Rep. Ken Calvert, who faces a battle with former federal prosecutor Will Rollins.

Up to Speed (Pennsylvania Road Trip Edition)

• Driving through western Pennsylvania on Monday, David and Mike spotted a number of billboards and signs that demonstrate how hard it is to escape the election in this battleground state. On highways leading into both Pittsburgh and Erie, for instance, were large blue Trump campaign displays on digital billboards. In a field visible from Interstate 79 was a large, homemade sign that read in large red letters, “PRAY FOR OUR NATION / STOP THE COMMUNIST TAKEOVER / VOTE TRUMP.” Not far from there along the other side of the highway was a paid billboard reading “Character Matters” and “Vote Harris-Walz” next to a large photograph of Trump. 
• And in Pittsburgh’s Strip District along the Allegheny River was a billboard for the nonprofit group StoryCorps that gave a nod to the political divide with an illustrated blue hand shaking a red hand. Written over the blue: “We may not see eye to eye.” And over the red: “But we can still talk heart to heart.” Are they sure about that?
• Finally, it’s not exactly a campaign sign, but as David and Mike crossed into Crawford County, some road construction on I-79 was accompanied by a notice that the improvements were funded by the “Bipartisan Infrastructure Law”—the unofficial name of the federal infrastructure legislation signed by President Joe Biden in 2021.

Harris Versus Trump: Vibes Versus Issues?

PITTSBURGH—It’s the issues, stupid. That’s not exactly what bar owner Rich Cupka told Dispatch Politics when we asked the Republican supporter of Donald Trump what’s driving the presidential race in this pivotal state, but he might as well have.

“People are tired of all this f—ing bullsh–,” Cupka, 56, said Monday afternoon in an interview at Cupka’s Cafe II, the sports bar on Steel City’s South Side he owns and runs. “I was down at Restaurant Depot today and people are saying: ‘I can’t believe these f—ing prices.” It’s not just inflation, Cupka emphasized, driving what he’s convinced is going to be a larger Trump victory over Kamala Harris than most of the former president’s most ardent Pennsylvania supporters feel comfortable predicting.

“We have less police, less public safety, and it’s just a downward spiral,” Cupka said. “Socialism never works, never will.” Government statistics show crime has dropped in Pittsburgh and nationwide. But Trump, and Republicans generally, argue those stats are faulty and unreliable. And as we sat in Cupka’s bar, an ad from the pro-Trump super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., aired during the local news broadcast charging Harris with being “soft on crime” and stating that she “always puts criminals first.”

It’s the recurring question in this campaign: Will Harris versus Trump be decided by vibes, or issues? Republicans concede the answer may depend on which voter you ask. But in Pennsylvania, at least, where polls show the race tied and political insiders in both parties agree with the polls, Republicans are confident about their nominee’s prospects because they believe issues will ultimately carry the day.

If not, Harris wouldn’t be moving to the center on key issues. For instance, when she sought the Democratic nomination in 2020, she opposed fracking, the process of extracting oil and natural gas from shale rock that is a major economic driver in Pennsylvania; she now supports it. Harris also is promising to crack down on illegal immigration in a major break with President Joe Biden while proposing a smaller hike in corporate taxes than her 2020 running mate. 

“She’s running like she’s Republican lite,” said Sam DeMarco, at-large member of the Allegheny County Council, during an interview at a local cigar and coffee joint in downtown Pittsburgh. DeMarco, who is also the GOP chairman in Allegheny County, perhaps the most politically decisive region in this decisive swing state, added that he expects pocketbook concerns and border security to be dominant as voters begin voting here this month. 

“The issue is inflation and the economy—and immigration,” he said.

Republican insiders weren’t completely dismissive of the notion that vibes are a factor in this campaign. And the Democrats we interviewed did not dismiss the importance of issues. Harris’ decision to unveil her economic agenda last month in Pittsburgh matters, they told us. The vice president’s strong support for abortion rights could motivate support for her among suburban women, especially in crucial Allegheny County, they added.

But in what Democrats agree is a coin-flip presidential contest that could swing this way or that depending on perhaps a few thousands votes cast by this or that voting bloc, they’re learning toward vibes trumping issues as the deciding factor in the race. 

“I’m always hesitant to make categorical statements,” said Mike Veon, a grizzled Democratic operative in Pittsburgh and former party leader in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. “But if you had to choose between a vibe election and a policy election, it’s a vibe election.” (In the Legislature, Veon represented a union-heavy district that voted primarily Democratic but has long since transformed into reliable Republican territory.)

“I can’t tell you what the overarching theme of this campaign is,” added Mike Mikus, a veteran Democratic strategist, during a lunch interview with Dispatch Politics as he munched on a grilled cheese sandwich and tomato soup at the popular Central Diner. Mikus, a fixture in Democratic politics both in southwest Pennsylvania and across the state, had his own take on the vibe he’s getting from what is a rather unusual campaign, in that it features a former president and a first-term vice president.

The vibe in this election, he said, “is much different” than 2016 or 2020.

“Of the three times Trump won or ran, this is the first time I’ve had Trump’s supporters tell me they don’t think he’s going to win,” Mikus explained. “Even when I thought he was going to lose in 2016 they were convinced he was going to win.”

Eyes on the Trail

• President Joe Biden today travels to Milwaukee, where he will deliver remarks on the positive effects of his economic agenda. Afterward, Biden heads to Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, near Philadelphia, for an evening campaign event for Bob Casey, the commonwealth’s senior Democratic senator who’s facing a stiff challenge from Republican Dave McCormick.
• Former President Donald Trump was set to participate in a roundtable today with Latino leaders at a property of his in Miami, but the campaign postponed the event due to severe weather forecasts from Hurricane Milton.
• Vice President Kamala Harris will be in New York for interviews with ABC’s The View, Howard Stern’s radio program, and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. 
• Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio will deliver remarks in Detroit. The Republican vice presidential nominee is expected to speak about the city’s automobile industry.
• Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will arrive in Reno, Nevada, this afternoon for a campaign reception before holding a rally in the city. Later, the Democratic vice presidential nominee will travel to Phoenix before a rally there on Wednesday.
• Second gentleman Doug Emhoff today is scheduled to headline a Harris campaign fundraiser in Los Angeles. Then he travels to Phoenix to keynote three campaign events: a get-out-the-vote rally; a “Republicans for Harris” organizing gathering; and a fundraiser.

Notable and Quotable

“If he loses, I’m f—ed … I’m like, ‘How long do you think my prison sentence is going to be?’”

—X owner Elon Musk, jokingly speaking of former President Donald Trump, in an interview with Tucker Carlson.