Democratic Convention Seeks to Shape a ‘Race About Personalities’

Happy Monday! The members of the Dispatch Politics team had our first Chicago-style deep-dish pizza last night. It’s a wonder we were able to send this newsletter. (Stay tuned for the review!)

Up to Speed

• Vice President Kamala Harris plans to spend $370 million on advertising between Labor Day and the November 5 election, her campaign announced Saturday. Significantly, $200 million of that eye-popping investment is dedicated to digital platforms—the largest digital reservation in history, the campaign claims—while $170 million is earmarked for television. Typically, campaigns spend more on television than digital, although digital has been steadily gaining market share in political advertising. Also, the Harris campaign is now boasting more than 1,600 paid staff and 280-plus field offices across battleground states. The announcement comes after Dispatch Politics reported that former President Donald Trump’s campaign has outsourced a large portion of its voter outreach and turnout operations to outside groups.
• Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, rebuffed calls for the former president to lay off of personal attacks on Harris at a campaign stop in Milwaukee. “I don’t think the president needs to pivot. And if I told him that, I can guess what he’d say,” Vance told reporters. But on NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina advised Trump to focus on policy. “If you have a policy debate, he wins. Donald Trump the provocateur, the showman, may not win this election,” he told anchor Kristen Welker.
• Harris on Friday outlined economic policy proposals in a speech in North Carolina, promising to help families manage rising costs. “Food, rent, gas, back-to-school clothes, prescription medications—after all that, for many families, there’s not much left at the end of the month,” she told the crowd. She proposed a federal ban on what she called “price-gouging” as well as expanding the child tax credit, giving a $25,000 payout to first-time home buyers, and providing tax incentives for builders of starter homes. 
• Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, raised concerns to the House GOP conference last week about Democrats’ fundraising success in the wake of Harris’ ascent to her party’s nomination, Punchbowl News reported Sunday. “We still have a great shot to grow our majority. But the Democrats are at the gates—hauling in hundreds of millions of dollars in the last few weeks. If we’re going to accomplish our goal of growing our majority, I need you to want it,” he told fellow Republicans on a call.
• The House Ways and Means, Oversight, and Judiciary committees released a 291-page report Monday alleging “impeachable conduct” by President Joe Biden, eight months after the Republican-controlled House formalized its impeachment inquiry. The report details two alleged offenses that rise to such a level—abuse of power and obstruction regarding Biden’s supposed involvement in his son Hunter’s business. However, the House GOP has lacked the votes to impeach Biden, and this report is unlikely to change that.
• Spotted: Cornel West boarding a plane for Chicago on Sunday morning at New York’s LaGuardia Airport. The progressive third-party candidate isn’t registering more than an asterisk in the polls. But in a close race, a few votes here and a few votes there could matter.

DNC Will Open With Biden’s Bittersweet Handoff to Harris

CHICAGO—The Democratic convention kicking off today in the Windy City was to be President Joe Biden’s shining moment, the celebration denied four years ago because of the deadly coronavirus pandemic. Instead, Biden will deliver the evening keynote address on Day 1 of this year’s quadrennial gathering—the least important day—and hand the reins of the party to Vice President Kamala Harris.

The weeks-old makeover of the Democrats’ 2024 ticket has injected fresh enthusiasm and unity into a four-day nominating convention that had been shaping up as a wake, saddled with an 81-year-old incumbent unlikely to win and the chaos of mass protests fueled by a splintering liberal base. Harris, newly competitive with 78-year-old Republican nominee Donald Trump in the polls, has turned the gathering into a hopeful celebration. Now, all the 59-year-old Democratic nominee has to do is minimize simmering intraparty divisions and navigate left-wing protests that began here over the weekend and capitalize on this unexpected opportunity. 

“She needs, quite simply, to keep up the momentum that she has coming into the convention when she leaves it,” Larry Ceisler, a Democratic strategist in the decisive battleground state of Pennsylvania, said Sunday in an email exchange with Dispatch Politics. “The happy and hopeful vibe that she has created the last few weeks has worked for her and in the minds of many has created the type of contrast with Donald Trump that seems to be enough for many Americans.”

“With Biden, we would have been racing to define the [contest] and prove he could do the job. It’d be a defensive strategy,” added a Democratic official who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “With Harris, we just need to show our energy and momentum. Let her reintroduce herself to the country on her terms with her speech.” 

When Republicans convened to renominate Trump on July 15, roughly 100 miles north of Chicago along the west coast of Lake Michigan in Milwaukee, the former president led Biden, then the presumptive Democratic nominee, by 2.7 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. Trump’s lead in the key battleground states was even larger. Fast forward to the outset of the Democratic convention: Harris is outpacing Trump by 1.4 points in national surveys and only trails him by a statistically insignificant margin of 0.1 point in the seven swing states likely to decide the election.

With momentum like that, it’s no wonder so many Democratic operatives we spoke with said the vice president’s No. 1 priority in Chicago—really, the party’s priority—should be using the convention to generate more positive vibes about her four-week-old candidacy, especially with absentee ballots in battleground states like North Carolina set to drop in less than 30 days. (Here’s a helpful guide on that schedule for all states.) An A-list of convention speakers ought to help Harris on that front: former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, former first lady Michelle Obama, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, to name a few.

Still, Harris is broadly undefined—on the issues and what sort of leader she would be. 

Trump is leading in polls on questions of who would better address voters’ top concerns, including worries about the economy, immigration, and public safety. And so this week’s convention needs to be more than a good time, some Democratic strategists say. The vice president and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, need to use the event to reassure persuadable voters that the Democratic Party under their leadership will bring down the cost of household goods, secure the southern border, and support local efforts to reduce crime.

“They need to flesh her out as a person,” Democratic consultant Dane Strother said. “Hug Trump on immigration and crime so it’s a race about personalities—and she whips him. He’s increasingly unhinged.” 

“Someone needs to tell Walz [to switch to] decaf leading up to the speech,” added a Democratic operative in a battleground state. “He needs to deliver a presidential speech, not a routine or a show.” 

In part, Harris’ ability to maximize the political opportunities presented by the convention will be dictated by the optics inside and outside the United Center and just how unified the Democrats are post-Biden. 

Republican operatives are busy sending along pictures and news reports of some of the disruptive protesters that have traveled to Chicago to push Democrats to adopt positions opposed by a majority of voters. For instance, there is a contingent of activists here advocating for Harris to abandon the historic U.S. support for Israel, even as the Jewish state faces existential threats from Iran and its militant Middle East proxies. And, as Republican insiders are pointing out, Republicans in Milwaukee were almost wholly in Trump’s corner, and nary a violent protester could be seen.

“Hmmm, I didn’t see any boarded up businesses or protests like this at the GOP convention in Milwaukee,” David Urban, a Republican lobbyist and Trump confidant, posted on X.

Trump and Vance Are Hitting the Road During the DNC

It may be the Democrats’ show here in Chicago this week, but Donald Trump’s campaign is mounting a full-court press, with both Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, packing their schedules with a full slate of campaign appearances across multiple swing states over the next few days.

Much like it did during the Republican convention in Milwaukee last month, the Trump-Vance campaign plans to focus on a particular theme each day this week: economics on Monday, crime and safety on Tuesday, national security on Wednesday, immigration on Thursday, and, well, “Making America Great Again” on Friday.

The counterprogramming effort reflects how the Trump campaign is attempting to draw attention away from Harris’ polling surge since President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race last month. Opposing presidential campaigns have historically remained quiet during the other party’s national conventions, given the saturation of media coverage for the proceedings. But the Republican campaign is trying to reset the race with a focus on policy differences.

“Harris has failed to answer media questions for 28 days because she can’t explain away her record of supporting policies that cause inflation, bans on private health insurance, destroying American energy, and higher taxes,” said Trump campaign advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles in a statement announcing the schedule. “As they meet Americans where they are in battleground states across the country, President Trump and Senator Vance will remind voters that under their leadership, we can end inflation, protect our communities from violent criminals, secure the border, and Make America Great Again.”

Despite this push from his campaign advisers to refocus the race on the policy differences between the candidates, Trump has struggled to keep the focus on substance. In a press conference last week at his New Jersey golf club, the former president read mechanically from prepared remarks about the Biden-Harris record on the economy before making long, off-topic digressions.

Both members of the Republican ticket will be in Pennsylvania today to talk about the economy and energy, with Trump speaking in York and Vance in Philadelphia. The candidates head west on Tuesday, with Trump in Howell, Michigan, and Vance in Kenosha, Wisconsin, to discuss crime. On Wednesday, Trump and Vance will appear together in Asheboro, North Carolina. Vance will stay in the south, heading to Valdosta, Georgia, for an immigration-focused event on Thursday, while Trump takes his immigration message to the southern border in Arizona. Finally, Trump will hold a rally in Glendale, Arizona, as well as an event in Las Vegas.

In addition to the candidate appearances themselves, Trump allies will host a daily press conference in Chicago to specifically target Harris and the Democrats, with Sens. Rick Scott and Ron Johnson speaking to reporters later this morning.

Notable and Quotable

“We’re about to hit the road, but nobody kidnap my dog because we want him back.”

—Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. J.D. Vance at a campaign event in Milwaukee, referring to his German shepherd, Atlas, who accompanied him, August 16, 2024.