The Sweep: Can Trump Steal Minnesota?

Plus, how Biden's team can best prep him for media interviews.

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Campaign Quick Hits

Mo’ money, mo’ states: Judging campaign spending can be assessed in a few different ways. When it comes to state spending numbers, I think of it both in terms of the raw numbers and the per electoral vote spending. I’ve broken down the Biden campaign numbers to let you decide what is interesting to you. 

Florida: 
Total: $40.05 million
EV: $1.6 million

Pennsylvania: 
Total: $24.57 million
EV: $1.2 million

North Carolina: 
Total: $16.62 million
EV: $1.1 million

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  1. Eric B

    That's a heck of a breakdown, gee wiz.

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    Patrick O'Rouke

    "just to make sure they weren’t so deep in their own heads that they couldn’t answer a softball like a human being. You’d be surprised."

    I'm not sure I would be surprised to hear this from someone who used to work for Ted Cruz...

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    Coach Phill

    Great read this week Sarah! I think the media is missing the boat on MN though. I have lived here my entire life. Through governors like Jesse "The Body", Tim Pawlenty, Arnie Carlson, and Mark Dayton. MN has been Blue leaning a long time. A republican has not won a state wide election in over 10 years.

    We have not voted for a (R) Presidential Candidate since Nixon in 1974. On average since 2000 Republican candidates have received 45% of the vote. In 2016 Trump got 45%. The highest a republican has hot was 47.7% by Geo Bush in 2004. I do believe that Trump can hit that or even 48%. However I do believe that Biden will out preform Clinton. She got 46.4%. Biden is more likable then Hillary was. In addition to that Amy Klobuchar is extremely popular in MN. She is actively campaigning for Biden. With those two factors i believe Biden will be at a minimum of 50%.

    So you heard it hear first! MN will be close, MN will stay Blue, and Biden will get at least 50% of the vote state wide.

    Thanks for the continued insider look into this election. I look forward to reading them.

    Have a great day Sarah!

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  4. DRHanson

    I would like to suggest a topic, either for a future issue of The Sweep or for a future Advisory Opinions discussion: What happens if either Biden or Trump dies before the election? It is a rather morbid topic, but there is at least a chance one of the candidates could die in the next 6 or 7 weeks, especially given their ages and the current pandemic environment. This question is especially important given the number of voters who are expected to vote before election day. The parties' national committees certainly have mechanisms to nominate replacement candidates, but what happens to the votes already cast for the dead candidate? As I understand it, a few states have laws allowing people to retrieve their ballots and cast new votes in the event a candidate dies before the election, but my state doesn't and I don't think that can be done in most states.

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  5. Joe1776

    Biden will only be asked softball questions. We know this from Obama and the gushing press he received. If anyone knows why Obama was using a pseudonym when he emailed Clinton on her illegal server let me know because as far as I can see he was never asked.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-emails-fbi-228607

    Honestly there were too many unasked questions to list.

    "Clinton downplayed the impact of the dossier during the Wednesday interview, highlighting that it came out after the election.

    "And what also didn't come out -- which I think is an even bigger problem as I write in the book -- is that the American people didn't even know that the FBI was investigating the Trump campaign because of connections with Russia starting in the summer of 2016," she said."

    So when did she know about the fbi investigation? When did she know about the dossier? Is she going to claim she had no knowledge that Steele the guy she was paying to dig up dirt on the Trump campaign had contacted the fbi? Who knows? Because the democrats only take questions from their political friends.

    Both have done interviews since these events and no one will ask them.

    The questions reporters will ask will be like yours - too open ended and easy. Even the racism one he can just explain away a yes or no.

    If Biden were treated like Trump this article (and the comments) has some of the questions reporters would put to him:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/09/joe-biden-questions-media-should-ask-candidate/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=featured-content-trending&utm_term=first


    But he is a democrat and the leftist press is running the campaign for him so he rarely needs to answer anything. They will fill in the silence with whatever they think their particular audience wants to hear. So if they are progressive they will suggest he is progressive if their audience is moderate they will portray him as moderate. As long as he doesn't open his mouth and say something intelligible they can handle it.


    If he is asked questions they will continue to be the like the ones he has been asked so far and quoted in the above article.




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    Rick Harlan

    The conventional wisdom is that the GOP has a big advantage due to in-person voting on election day. And contrary to the conventional wisdom, the conventional wisdom is usually right. But if I had money to gamble with, I'd put some of it on the long-shot that unenthusiastic Trump voters give up on three hour long lines at consolidated polling places in numbers that match the failure rate of absentee ballots.

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    JohnF

    Sarah, one thing I'd really like you to address is the efficacy of campaign spending.?
    In business, there is a constant focus on ROI. In politics, however, we are told that the Trump campaign has already spent $800M and yet they are still well behind. If a large corporation spent a tenth of that kind of money with the same kind of results, heads would roll.
    Where did the money go and was that an effective use of funds?

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      Sarah Isgur vertical-nib Author

      I addressed this on advisory opinions episode yesterday a little. In 2012, the Obama campaign had much the same strategy—spend money early to define Romney before the summer and it worked well bc it primed voters for the 47% comment. The trump campaign has done some of the same W Biden priming voters for him to have a “senior moment.” But he hasn’t had one yet. So we shall see. They also appear to have spent a lot of that money on donor prospecting, which in theory means they can raise a lot more money more quickly here toward the end. We shall see. As for roi specifically, the answer is yes sort of. The digital and fundraising teams are absolutely run on that. They know exactly how much money it takes to raise that next dollar. The political team at this stage measures in terms of doors knocked. So that’s all to say there are metrics...

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    Angie

    Thanks, Sarah, as always
    This column is so fun and interesting

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      Victor Clairmont

      It is!

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    Ray Salemi

    “interviewed 215 voters who said they backed either Johnson or Stein in 2016, and Biden holds a 2-to-1 advantage among them.”

    What do you know? Some people learned their lesson.

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      Rick Harlan

      As a 2016 McMullin voter, I like to think it was the Democratic Party who learned the lesson. (everybody else gets to rationalize their vote, why do center-rightists always have to swallow the bitter pill without putting it inside a Snausage?).

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    rlritt

    I read this in From Fox News :

    "Democrats dominate mail-in ballot requests in key swing states"

    I really belief this is a set up! Maybe not deliberate. (I haven't made tinfoil hat yet) The Dems will vote by mail and the Republicans will mostly vote in person; Trump will win on election day and force the Supreme Court to stop counting fraudulent mail-in ballots.

    I think people in all states, but especially in battleground states should VOTE EARLY IN PERSON!!

    Remember Bush v. Gore. O'Connor said afterwards that she was happy to help their side win!

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