Happy Friday! In one of the most predictable news developments ever, the Museum of Failure, slated to open in a few weeks in San Francisco, is embroiled in a property dispute that will probably ensure its, um, failure … before it even opens.
Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories
- Proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with a tariff increase on Chinese goods, will go into effect March 4, President Donald Trump said Thursday. Following uncertainty about whether the White House would impose the tariffs after last month’s pause, Trump said on Truth Social that his concerns about drug trafficking across both the northern and southern borders had not been assuaged. “Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels,” he wrote, adding that the planned 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would go through, along with a 10 percent tariff hike on Chinese imports, bringing that rate to 20 percent.
- The government of Thailand on Thursday deported 40 asylum-seeking Uyghurs, a largely Muslim ethnic group fleeing state-led persecution, to China after more than a decade in detention. Carried out at China’s request, the move to send the migrants, who were all men, back to their home country is viewed as a sign of China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia. U.N. officials condemned the decision, warning that the deportees would likely face imprisonment and possible torture once they returned to China.
- Andrew and Tristan Tate, misogynistic social media influencers who have been charged with human trafficking in Romania, landed in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on Thursday following the decision by a Romanian court to lift travel restrictions on the brothers. The Tates, along with two other associates, were arrested by Romanian authorities in 2022 in Bucharest for allegedly convincing women to fly to Romania, and then using debt and intimidation to force them to participate in pornographic videos. It is unclear exactly why travel restrictions on the Tates were lifted, although the Romanian foreign minister said last month that a Trump administration official had expressed interest in the case at the Munich Security Conference. However, Romanian foreign ministry officials stated that U.S. officials had not intervened in the brothers’ case, which remains ongoing.
- The Office of Personnel Management was ordered by a federal judge in California Thursday to retract orders directing federal agencies to conduct mass firings of probationary workers. U.S. District Judge William Alsup’s ruling blocks the directives to dozens of federal agencies until the case can be revisited in the near future, but does not reinstate any fired workers. “The Office of Personnel Management does not have any authority whatsoever, under any statute in the history of the universe, to hire and fire employees at another agency,” said Alsup, while making his ruling.
- An internal Pentagon memo on Thursday directed the armed services to create processes for identifying transgender troops and troops diagnosed with or being treated for gender dysphoria, and remove them within 30 days. Gender dysphoria is “incompatible with the high mental and physical standards necessary for military service,” Darin Selnick, defense undersecretary for personnel, said in the memo. The executive order signed by President Donald Trump that led to the policy is being challenged in court by six active-duty transgender service members.
- British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited the White House on Thursday, meeting with President Donald Trump and participating in a joint press conference. The two leaders reportedly discussed Britain’s recent announcement that it would increase defense spending, security arrangements for Ukraine, and a potential trade deal between Britain and the United States. Starmer also presented Trump with an invitation from King Charles III to make an official state visit.
Staving Off a Nuclear Iran
Before retaking office, Donald Trump declared his intention of bringing “real peace, a lasting peace” to the Middle East. But it may not take long for the new president to get more than he bargained for in the tumultuous region.
As the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran grows, so too does the possibility of a preemptive Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic and a resulting broader war. From Trump’s perspective, all options for thwarting Tehran’s pursuit of a bomb—from diplomatic outreach to economic pressure to military action—are on the table, but a report detailing the country’s recent nuclear advances casts new urgency on the need for a coherent Iran policy.
Since late October, Iran has grown its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent from 182 kg to 274 kg—a 50 percent increase—according to new findings by the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency. The Islamic Republic now possesses enough enriched uranium for six bombs should it choose to enrich to weapons-grade, a process that would take just days. “The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern,” the nuclear watchdog warned.
The report dashed hopes that Trump’s return to the White House, and the threat of renewed sanctions, would be enough to convince Iran to begin dismantling its nuclear program ahead of negotiations. “I think the Iranian strategy is to advance the program under fire. They’re going to use maximum pressure as an excuse to continue to advance their program and master certain technologies, all while generating leverage,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Iran Program, told TMD, adding that Tehran hopes to “create the argument that, ‘You pushed us, you forced me to weaponize, you forced me to turn that last screw.’ It’s a very dangerous and risky strategy but also [a] clever move.”
And indeed, many Iranian officials have begun to publicly and privately make the case for pursuing a nuclear weapon to rebuff to supposed threats from Washington. A senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in November that if a need arose, Iran would “modify” its nuclear doctrine: “We have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard.” Meanwhile, Iranian commanders have reportedly begun urging Khamenei to abandon his fatwa, or religious ruling, against building a bomb in response to “existential threats” from the West.
Meanwhile, Iran’s ballistic missile development continues apace. “There is no example like this in history. The Islamic Republic is a threshold nuclear power with the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. It’s the only country to develop a 2,000-kilometer ballistic missile without first having developed nuclear weapons. It is responsible for the largest-ever single-day ballistic missile operation in history,” Ben Taleblu said of the regime’s largely thwarted attack on Israel in October, which involved an estimated 200 ballistic missiles.
But while the country’s nuclear program is significantly more advanced than when Trump last held office, it’s also far more exposed. Iran’s proxy war, and later direct attacks, on Israel in the aftermath of Hamas’ October 7 massacre in 2023 culminated in the decimation of the Islamic Republic’s regional allies and the effective destruction of its air defenses. In October, the Israeli air force demonstrated both its ability and willingness to carry out complex operations in Iran, shattering the conventional wisdom that any direct attacks on the country would necessarily bring about a major regional war.
Beni Sabti, an Iran analyst at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, argued that the regime’s decision to ramp up its enrichment now reflected a profound “hubris,” or belief that Washington and Jerusalem wouldn’t back up their threats to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon by any means necessary. But its nuclear advances may also serve as leverage in possible talks toward another nuclear deal. “They want to have achievements before they go into the negotiations, like North Korea,” Sabti told TMD. “‘We have the bomb, and now we can talk as equals.’”
Despite Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of the multilateral Obama-era nuclear deal—which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for the country dismantling portions of its nuclear program, limiting its enrichment activity, and consenting to international monitoring—the president has consistently signaled his desire to revive some sort of agreement with Tehran. “I say this and I say this to Iran who is listening very intently, I would love to be able to make a great deal, a deal where you can get on with your lives and you’ll do wonderfully,” he said from a joint press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this month.
At the same time as the president angles for his “great deal,” he has begun to put economic penalties on the regime. Shortly after retaking office, Trump signed a presidential memorandum formally reinstating his “maximum pressure” sanctions, reviving a campaign from his first term aimed at crippling Iran’s economy and forcing it to halt its pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Twice this month, the Treasury Department has leveled new sanctions against international entities, individuals, and vessels that it accused of facilitating illicit Iranian oil sales.
But from Israel’s perspective, the time to push Tehran toward diplomacy may be running out. Speaking to Politico this week, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned that a “military option” may be necessary to stop Iran’s nuclear program. And U.S. intelligence officials believe that Israel may be preparing to carry out a preemptive strike on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites in the first six months of 2025, the Washington Post reported this month.
This more aggressive approach risks putting Israel’s leaders at odds with Trump, who has repeatedly stressed his desire to avoid a Middle East war. For now, at least, Jerusalem and Washington remain publicly in lockstep. Speaking alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio this month, Netanyahu vowed to “finish the job” against “Iran’s terror axis.” Rubio, meanwhile, reiterated that there “could never be a nuclear Iran.”
But if Trump’s team wants to thwart Tehran’s nuclear program while also avoiding a broader war, it needs a plan for how to exert economic pressure in a way that maintains the legitimate threat of military action. Analysts argue that the first Trump administration undermined its own credibility by failing to respond consistently to a series of escalations by the Islamic Republic—including its shoot-down of an American drone in international airspace in June 2019 and ballistic missile attack on bases hosting American troops in January 2020—that came amid its sanctions campaign.
“The administration is going to have to be very careful,” Ben Taleblu said. “The regime responds to pressure, but the more effective you are at choking somebody, the more violent their flailing will be.”
Worth Your Time
- In recent years, it’s become almost a doctrine of political science that new information rarely makes people reconsider their strongly held beliefs. Writing in the Washington Post, Annie Duke reports on a new study of more than 2,000 people who, when AI presented them with evidence debunking their beliefs, were much more likely to change their minds: “It is hard to walk away from who you are, whether you are a QAnon believer, a flat-Earther, a truther of any kind, or just a stock analyst who has taken a position that makes you stand out from the crowd. … And that’s why the AI approach might work so well. The participants were not interacting with a human, which, I suspect, didn’t trigger identity in the same way, allowing the participants to be more open-minded. Identity is such a huge part of these conspiracy theories in terms of distinctiveness, putting distance between you and other people. When you’re interacting with AI, you’re not arguing with a human being whom you might be standing in opposition to, which could cause you to be less open-minded.”
- “When Ukrainians make clear that they categorically and uniformly reject Russian control—three years into a brutal war that has destroyed many of their towns, killed tens of thousands of their fellow citizens, and uprooted millions more—the West should listen,” write Janina Dill, Marnie Howlett, and Carl Müller-Crepon in Foreign Affairs. The three researchers conducted an extensive public-opinion survey three years into the war, and found that Ukrainians are still willing to make huge sacrifices to avoid Russian domination: “When presented with strategies that would quadruple the number of Ukrainian military fatalities over the next three months, from 6,000 to 24,000, for example, respondents selected those costly options 43 percent of the time—suggesting that the rise in fatalities had relatively little effect on their choices, in contrast to having to make political or territorial concessions. … When participants were given a choice between an outcome that led to Russian dominance and one that resulted in full political autonomy, 77 percent chose full autonomy, even if it came at very high cost. This has changed little since 2022, when 81 percent of them did. In the instances when respondents accepted Russian control, they generally did so to pick a strategy that restored Ukraine’s full territorial integrity with its pre-2014 borders. High civilian casualties, military casualties, and nuclear risks had little effect on their choices.”
Presented Without Comment
President Donald Trump was asked about his comments calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator.” His response:
Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that.
Also Presented Without Comment
The crew for the upcoming spaceflight from Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’ rocket venture, includes TV anchor Gayle King, pop star Katy Perry, and Bezos’ fiancée, Lauren Sanchez.
In the Zeitgeist
The Oscars are this Sunday, and the TMD team eagerly awaits the sweep by Emilia Pérez! Just kidding … maybe. If you still need to catch up on the films in the running for the big prize, here’s a compilation of trailers for all the best picture nominees.
Toeing the Company Line
- In the newsletters: Nick Catoggio examines why Trumpism is more a moral project than a political one.
- On the podcasts: Our Dispatch Podcast crew talks about what Trump has actually done—as opposed to declared or tweeted—during his first month in office.
- On the site: Chris Stirewalt draws parallels between Woodrow Wilson and Donald Trump’s approaches on handling the media, Kevin Williamson looks at the one thing Christian nationalists have a point about, Joseph Roche reports from Ukraine on how Chechen soldiers view Russia’s ability to uphold a peace deal, and Erica Komisar explains why parents need to be able to control their kids’ online activities.
Let Us Know
Do you think Donald Trump can pull off a satisfactory nuclear deal with Iran?
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