Farmers and Manufacturers Show Guarded Optimism About Trump’s Tariffs

Some farmers and manufacturers in America’s heartland are giving Donald Trump political slack to wield economically disruptive tariffs. They remain hopeful levies the president is slapping on imports, and the ensuring foreign retaliation, will lead to greater long-term prosperity.

Contrary to the anxiety roiling corporate C-suites across the country and business groups in Washington, D.C.—where opposition to Trump’s tariff strategy is rampant—farmers and manufacturers in the Midwest whose livelihoods rely on exports and imports seem generally supportive of the Trump administration’s early posture on trade. Agriculture and industry advocates in Michigan, North Dakota and Wisconsin—three states with economies powered by international trade—said they are willing to give the president time to deliver his promised “golden age of America.” 

Jim Holcomb, president and chief executive officer of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce, said companies in his state are being patient with Trump because they view trade policy as just one facet of a holistic agenda to improve the business climate in the United States. From that vantage point, tariffs are connected to Trump’s plans to reduce regulations, enact tax cuts, and shrink the federal bureaucracy via the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.  

“They’ve been giving him a lot of latitude,” Holcomb said in a telephone interview. In 2024, Michigan exports totaled more than $60 billion—up 7 percent from a decade earlier—and supported more than 225,000 jobs out of an employed workforce of 4.8 million, according to statistics compiled by the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Its largest export category by far was “transportation equipment,” according to the analysis. Its biggest market? Canada, the close U.S. ally with whom Trump has instigated a trade war, complaining Ottawa doesn’t treat American imports fairly.

“They see it as a negotiation—his style—and they don’t think it’s him really playing a game,” Holcomb said. “He has however many balls in the air at one time and he uses that to his advantage.” Holcomb conceded that Michigan business owners are somewhat “frustrated” with Trump’s trade tactics. They certainly don’t operate like him. “But they also think he’s been successful in many ways doing it and so they’re willing to give him that latitude right now, especially this soon into his presidency.”

Like Holcomb, North Dakota Farm Bureau President Daryl Lies conceded some angst among farmers in his state. In 2024, North Dakota exported  $5.5 billion worth of goods, per government statistics (Canada was the state’s largest export market for goods.) In 2022, the state exported roughly $5.9 billion worth of agricultural products, with infrastructure in the state built specifically to transport soybeans west for eventual shipment to China. 

But as they did during Trump’s first term, when faced with economic pressures from the president’s use of tariffs North Dakota farmers largely support him (Trump won the state in 2024 with nearly 68 percent of the vote.) They view his use of tariffs as essential to securing the Mexican border and ensuring national security, and are willing to contribute to that effort, according to Lies. “Without national security, we can have all the trade in the world but if we have insecurity because of our border, that’s not a good place to be in,” he explained. 

“We understand that there, maybe, needs to be some actions to get some responsiveness, particularly from the southern border,” Lies added.

To the extent there are complaints about Trump’s tariff regime, they revolve around what has turned out to be severe uncertainty that makes basic business planning difficult. Rather than a consistent approach designating which American trading partners and which of their exports to the U.S. are subject to higher levies (and at what rate) the president is constantly changing the rules. Trump is able to do so because Congress long ago delegated its constitutional authority over tariffs to the executive branch. The president has been particularly aggressive in his use of increased levies directed at imports from Canada and Mexico, with whom he renegotiated a free trade pact during his first term. But even if Trump were consistent, economic hardship could result.

For instance, manufacturers in Wisconsin rely on international supply chains for component parts that are not sourceable in the U.S. in the short or even medium term, said Kurt Bauer, president and CEO of Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce, an industry advocacy group in Madison, the state capital.

Additionally, Wisconsin manufacturers depend on energy from Canada, with oil flowing via pipeline from the province of Alberta to Superior, a community in the northwest corner of the state on the banks of Lake Superior. If Trump’s 10 percent tariff on Canadian crude oil ever goes into effect, costs for businesses and consumers could rise “across the board.” That’s significant because manufacturing is Wisconsin’s largest business sector, accounting for 20 percent of the state’s economic output, Bauer said.

“My membership by and large has been very supportive of Trump. They want him to succeed. I think what they want is clarity,” Bauer explained. “Our membership was very much in favor of more tariffs on China because of unfair trade practices—the frustration that they’ve had dealing with the Chinese market. They were mixed on Canada and Mexico.”

“Most people don’t believe it’s a negotiating ploy—like they did initially,” Bauer added. “They want to know what the rules of the game are and [that] they’ll function.”

Trump acknowledged in a recent interview with Fox Business Network that his trade agenda could lead to an economic downturn. “I hate to predict things like that,” he told host Maria Bartiromo. “There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.” 

But the White House takes issue with any suggestion that there is resistance to Trump’s tariff strategy in the business community. “Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs,” spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement provided to The Dispatch.

For executives running U.S.-based firms, and for industry groups in Washington, D.C., hope persists that Trump is using tariffs as a negotiating ploy and will eventually abandon them after extracting concessions from American trading partners. They see virtually zero upside to tariffs generally, but especially as deployed by Trump. They were enthusiastic about the 45th and now 47th president’s return to the White House because they assumed the tough campaign talk on tariffs was bluster—that he’d focus on reducing inflation, cutting taxes and rolling back regulations. 

Wall Street has reacted accordingly, with markets losing significant value since Trump was reelected in November. Despite making gains Friday, the Dow suffered a net loss of 3.1 percent for the week, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.4 percent and the S&P 500 slipping 2.3 percent. Voters, too, appear to be worrying Trump’s tariffs could spark a recession, or at the very least exacerbate stubborn inflation. Fifty-six percent of voters disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy in a recent CNN poll.

“He’s stepping on his own story because he could have such a great economic growth story right now because of the fact that he’s replacing a president who had terrible economic policy—Joe Biden,” said Paul Ryan, the Republican former speaker of the House who talks to business executives regularly in his role as a partner at the private equity firm Solamere Capital. “The tariff uncertainty is stepping on that, and that’s what I hear.”

Like consumers do in these situations, businesses are reacting to Trump’s tariff agenda by delaying, reconsidering, or outright canceling capital investments. 

But many executives and industry groups are afraid to speak out publicly, worried that criticizing the president could lead to retribution by the administration that further harms their firms and industries. Those fears are warranted: Trump has a history of using government power to punish critics and using his popularity with Republican voters to threaten the market share of products produced by companies that openly question his policies.

“I’m calling you back because I’ve known you for 20 years and I know you’ll keep me out of this,” an industry group advocate told The Dispatch, requesting anonymity to discuss opposition to Trump’s trade agenda. “Nobody wants to risk being the first through the door.” Added an equally skittish business executive: “Don’t quote me. I’ll be MAGA’d to death.”