The Growing Crisis at the Polish Border

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko is purposefully creating tension with the European Union.

By
13

Thousands of would-be asylum seekers from the Middle East have gathered at the border between Poland and  Belarus since October. They did not get there on their own, and their presence is a crisis manufactured by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko for the purpose of creating tension with the European Union.

How did they end up in Belarus? 

During the European migration crisis of 2015, most refugees fleeing the Middle East  crossed the treacherous Mediterranean Sea on more-or-less seaworthy vessels. But in this case,people have been flown straight to Belarus courtesy of Belavia, the country’s national airline, which since just last year have introduced a number of new destinations, including Damascus, Baghdad, Ankara, and several other prominent Middle Eastern cities. It’s a cunning strategy to import people from the Middle East. After landing in Belarus, these would-be migrants have been transported to the Polish/Belarusian border, and largely left to fend for themselves (though as of November 18, some have been given temporary shelter by Belarus in abandoned warehouse buildings). Having paid dearly to get to Europe, the migrants are not keen to leave. Some have made it over the border, but most have so far been stopped in violent clashes with the Polish military.

This border, crucially, is also an external border of the EU, as Poland is a member of the EU while Belarus is not. While the migrants are attempting to cross into Poland, Germany is in fact the final destination for most of them, a country that, together with Sweden, welcomed the lion’s share of the refugees who arrived in 2015. There are virtually no border controls between EU countries. If you manage to enter one EU country, you can enter any one of them without ever having to show your passport or proof that you have a right to stay here. 

Keep reading with a free account
Create a free Dispatch account to keep reading Get Started ALREADY HAVE AN ACCOUNT? SIGN IN
13
By
Comments (13)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “ On paper, defending the border is everyone’s responsibility.

    The EU, like NATO, has a mutual defense clause obligating member states to help one another if one of them is attacked.”

    This is the crux. If this crisis exposes that to be a fiction, what will be the next domino to fall.

    Collapse
  2. Avatar photo
    Jeff Younger

    Weakness emanating from the current occupant of the White House and an energy policy that strengthens bad actors on the world stage (in this case, Russia) has no doubt contributed to this crisis. 3 years is an eternity for America’s adversaries to run amok. God help the free world, or what will remain of it by the time Biden leaves office.

    Collapse
  3. Avatar photo
    Ignatius J. Reilly

    It's a nerdy point to make, but NATO's Article V (mutual defense clause) is not obligatory in any sense except that signatories must treat an armed attack on one country "to be an attack against them all." This doesn't mean that a commitment of forces is required, it only means that a signatory country must "assist the other Parties" and take "such actions as it deems necessary." Each country maintains the political ability to join hostilities or not. NATO is fundamentally a political union, capable of being broken at any time. It is not like the Warsaw pact, which was a true military pact. NATO is a union of nations that share some critical and fundamental democratic values. They also happen to have a military structure that may, if the political leadership of member states choose, help the collection of countries respond militarily to an attack on any one of them.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I am aware, but NATO is a tried and tested union. Not without its flaws of course, but none the less, everyone operates under the understanding that if you attack a NATO country, you best be prepared to fight all of them. Hence why Putin made incursions into Georgia and Ukraine, but not into the baltic states - or Poland.

      Collapse
  4. P Satter

    Thank you for an explanation of the many background issues that further complicate Lukashenko's awful chess game. Interesting the UK has sent some help when they aren't even in the EU now. They must fear eventually becoming an end destination themselves.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      Glad you liked the article. As for the UK, I honestly don't think they think so - there's Germany and France on the way between them and Poland and most migrants would just stop there. It's more that the UK has a tradition of intervention to help other countries (as best as they can, and not always with great results). Also, they have a much stronger military than any other European country, and their military is actually battle ready at a moment's notice - in many other countries, even if they wanted to help Poland with troops and everything, the logistics would take a month or more to sort out.

      Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    Frank Lee

    Funny. Poland defending German from Russia. Who'd a thunk it?

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      What is that saying again about how history rhymes or something?

      Collapse
  6. Avatar photo
    Andreas Wolf

    I think the goal of this strategy by Belarus (prodded by Russia) is to create a "2nd Turkey", where Belarus can make demands using the threat of a wave of migrants at the border.
    Clearly, the best strategy would be to nip this in the bud and *increase* pressure on Lukashenko as a consequence of his actions. Since we are talking about the EU I would not hold my breath, though.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I agree completely.

      Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    Chris L

    Keep in mind that Russia will also use this to distract and exhaust the Polish military so they are desensitized and less likely to react when they stage a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and from there the rest of the former Eastern Bloc if all goes well. This is no different from China's routine airspace incursions with Taiwan so they are partially numbed when the actual invasion happens.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Dennis

      Just how would Poland “react,” militarily or otherwise, to a Russian invasion of Ukraine? The latter is not an EU member, only an “associate” applying for membership. Would that status trigger EU mutual defense obligations? I do agree that Russia’s aims are irredentist and that Putin would like to restore the former Soviet empire. Energy blackmail of the EU by Russia and Belarus is a more potent weapon than creating a refugee crisis, but the latter is something the EU could and should respond to.

      Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      John Gustavsson @Nationstatist

      I honestly think it'll have the opposite effect. First of all, the Polish are absolutely enraged by this, and it is likely that national cohesion will strengthen in light of this threat to the nation's territorial integrity. Second of all, the military gets to practice in a real situation, which is good for morale and good for battle readiness (not that turning away asylum seekers is a "battle", but it's a real emergency where the military must use some of their skills).

      Collapse