Can Don Bacon Survive a Tough Reelection Battle?

Happy Tuesday! Election Day is 21 days away. What’s your favorite tune from Donald Trump’s playlist, which runs the gamut from Pavarotti’s version of “Ave Maria” to the Guns N’ Roses classic “November Rain”? Drop your picks in the comments.

Up to Speed

• It was a bizarre scene at former President Donald Trump’s town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania, Monday night. After a moderated conversation with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and a few questions from supporters, Trump suddenly hit the brakes on the event after more than one attendee fell ill and required medical attention. “Let’s not do any more questions,” Trump said. “Let’s just listen to music. Let’s make it into a music. Who the hell wants to hear questions, right?” Then, the Washington Post reports, for nearly 40 minutes Trump “swayed, bopped — sometimes stopping to speak — as he turned the event into almost a living-room listening session of his favorite songs from his self-curated rally playlist.”
• Vice President Kamala Harris will sit down for an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier on Special Report in Pennsylvania on Wednesday evening, the network announced. This will be the first time Harris has ever been formally interviewed on the news network. Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has appeared on the network’s Fox News Sunday the past two weeks in a row.
• Harris appears to have plagiarized lines from other sources in her 2009 book Smart on Crime. Written with ghostwriter Joan O’C. Hamilton and released when she was San Francisco district attorney (and gearing up to run for California attorney general), the book at several points lifts language about crime statistics directly from various sources, including news reports, press releases, and Wikipedia. Conservative activist Christopher Rufo highlighted these examples, citing the research of the Austrian writer and “plagiarism hunter” Stefan Weber. In response, a Harris campaign spokesman told the New York Times that the vice president “clearly cited sources and statistics in footnotes and endnotes throughout.”
• A new polling memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, reported by Politico Tuesday, clues us in on what the Senate GOP’s campaign arm is thinking about the upper chamber’s upcoming elections. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is up in Ohio by 2 points over GOP challenger Bernie Moreno—4 points lower than estimated by a Senate Leadership Fund memo leaked over the weekend. (SLF is a super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell). The NRSC memo also has Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin up just 1 point over former Rep. Mike Rogers, the GOP candidate, rather than the 8-point lead she had in the SLF’s polling. Both the NRSC and the SLF showed tight races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

‘Commie Democrat RINO’ to Some, ‘Super MAGA Guy’ to Others

Rep. Don Bacon is a traditional Republican with a moderate-to-conservative voting record. The Nebraska congressman supports aid to Ukraine and restrictions on abortion. He voted for the Trump tax cuts and for the federal government to recognize same-sex marriages. He has won election four times in a swing district, but he may be in for his toughest test yet in November.

A retired Air Force brigadier general first elected to the House in 2016, Bacon represents the area surrounding Omaha and its immediate suburbs. Because of the state’s unusual laws on presidential elections, the district has drawn attention every four years. Nebraska allocates its five votes in the Electoral College by giving two to the statewide winner and doling out the remaining three based on who wins its congressional districts. Nebraska is a red state, and its other two districts are rural and vote overwhelmingly for Republican candidates. But Bacon’s district is swingy. 

Though former President Donald Trump won Bacon’s district in 2016, President Joe Biden took it in 2020, with the congressman winning both cycles. This year, polls have shown Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the district by 5 or more points. In a close election, a single electoral vote from Nebraska going to Harris could make all the difference.

It’s no surprise, then, that Democrats have shelled out at least $15 million to help Harris win the district, while Trump has practically surrendered it. Bacon himself says the disparity is not ideal. “That hurts the down-ballot Republicans, obviously,” he told Dispatch Politics in an interview. “I think that gives us a headwind that I won’t deny, right? So, it’s going to take extra work.”

The race in Bacon’s district will test whether an electorate friendly to a relatively conservative member but hostile to Trump will reelect a vulnerable Republican to the House. Perhaps that is why Bacon’s Democratic opponent, state Sen. Tony Vargas—a former teacher whom he defeated in 2022—has attempted to tie him to the former president, accusing him of taking “marching orders” from Trump and being “in lockstep” with his agenda.

“I think the Democrats think people are stupid when they say that,” Bacon said. “Anybody with a brain on their shoulders can see what I’ve been doing the last eight years and the interactions I’ve had with the former president.”

But last month, Bacon signed on to a failed Trump-backed attempt to change the law so that Nebraska would award all five of its electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote. Two Republican operatives who spoke to Dispatch Politics downplayed how much Bacon’s association with that effort will hurt his reelection effort. But Bacon was already vulnerable, winning in 2022 by about 2.5 points. Having a competitive presidential election in his district doesn’t help Bacon, either. The Cook Political Report rates his race as a toss-up, while Inside Elections deems it “tilt Democratic.”

Bacon has been critical of the fringe elements of the GOP. He also voted to certify the 2020 election and told Dispatch Politics explicitly that he believed Trump lost it, something Trump surrogates have not done. At the same time, he voted against impeaching Trump in the aftermath of the January 6 riot, criticizing the alacrity with which then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi pursued Trump’s impeachment and noting that Trump was already set to leave office. “While the President was wrong to not concede and bears much responsibility for what happened on January 6, he did commit last week to an orderly transition of power on January 20, which is less than a week away,” he said in a statement at the time, saying he favored censuring Trump.

In his interview with Dispatch Politics, Bacon also noted that he, like many Republicans this cycle, survived a primary challenge from the right. His opponent received endorsements from county GOP chapters in his district who argued the populist challenger was more aligned with Trump, who did not make an endorsement in the primary.

“It cracks me up,” said Bacon. “I got a primary where I’m a Commie Democrat RINO, and now I’m a super MAGA guy from the Democrats. I don’t think anybody buys it.” He added that Trump called for someone to primary him in 2022 and that he voted in favor of Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law.

Bacon has tried highlighting his legislative accomplishments, noting his high marks from organizations that encourage bipartisanship among members and that he had the most bills become law of any Republican in the House in the last Congressional session. According to GovTrack, that ranks him second in the chamber, behind Democratic Rep. Joe Neguse of Colorado. 

Bacon also accused Vargas of being absent or voting present in 20 percent of the votes in the unicameral legislature. In response, the Vargas campaign did not refute Bacon’s claim but said in a statement that the incumbent supports “a convicted felon for President” and accused him of not having “the backbone to stand up to his party.”

“In the state legislature, Tony has worked across the aisle to make our state safer, increasing law enforcement funding by $37 million a year, protecting children from predators, and strengthening actions to keep fentanyl off our streets,” a Vargas campaign spokesperson told Dispatch Politics. “Additionally, he’s been one of the most effective lawmakers in his time in the legislature, passing bills that have made housing more affordable, improved and protected access to health care, protected consumers, and invested in education.”

To be sure, Bacon does share some similarities with Trump on policy. Like Trump, he supports eliminating taxes on tips, a signature campaign promise of the former president (which Harris has also adopted). But Bacon introduced a bill to that end in April, months before Trump took up the policy.

Eyes on the Trail

• President Joe Biden, accompanied by first lady Jill Biden, travels today to Pennsylvania to headline the Philadelphia Democratic Party’s Democratic City Committee Dinner. The event, held at a union banquet hall in Philadelphia, will be attended by Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker and other prominent Democrats.
• Donald Trump will sit for an interview today with Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwait in Chicago. The event is co-hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago. Later this evening, Trump will hold a rally at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre in suburban Atlanta.
• Vice President Kamala Harris overnighted in Detroit, where today she will participate in a town hall with well-known black radio host Charlamagne tha God, host of the popular program, The Breakfast Club. The scheduled appearance is part of Harris’ bid to expand her support with black men. 
• Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is in Western Pennsylvania today, with campaign stops in Lawrence and Butler counties, followed by a rally and later a fundraiser in Pittsburgh. The Democratic vice presidential nominee will then travel to Washington, D.C.
• Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, the Republican vice presidential nominee, travels today to suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County to headline a town hall hosted by Moms for America.
• Second gentleman Doug Emhoff this evening will headline two Harris campaign fundraisers in New York City. 
• Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, a Republican, and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat, will campaign for Trump in Carson City, Nevada.

Notable and Quotable

“Would anybody else like to faint? Please raise your hand.”

—Former President Donald Trump, speaking at his town hall event in Oaks, Pennsylvania, where some attendees were treated by medical personnel after passing out, October 14, 2024