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Axios Senior Political Correspondent Josh Kraushaar joins Sarah to explain what happens when the Democrats’ ...

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Axios Senior Political Correspondent Josh Kraushaar joins Sarah to explain what happens when the Democrats’ sugar rush drops. Are the fundamentals still favoring Republicans in the midterms? Can candidate quality block a red wave? And how’s 2024 shaping up? Join for a healthy fix of pre-midterms political punditry and prognostication.

Show Notes:

–Josh’s Axios piece on the state of play for November

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  1. Avatar photo
    OJFL

    A very interesting podcast. I like the Senate comments and I am still puzzled why the parties always try to create these very small coalitions instead of appealing to all electorate. It is also very unfortunate the GOP has indeed turned against businesses. The Democrats cannot be pro-business so I wonder who will protect the wealth creation and employment generation in the country.

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  2. Eliason.Mark

    Josh’s comment on Blake Masters being controversial for the sake of controversy rings true and fits a broader pattern for candidates whose affiliation with Peter Thiel predate their political careers. Blake Masters compiled his notes from a class Thiel taught on entrepreneurship at Stanford and co-published “Zero to One”, which I think provides some insights into the candidacies of Masters and JD Vance, arguably the only true Thiel acolytes running right now.

    “Zero to One” starts with Thiel describing a question he asks every time someone interviews for a job with him: “What important truth do very few people agree with you on?” And he’s not superficial about it. This theme comes up again and again in Thiel’s writing and public speaking. He wants to back legit contrarians. This can be advantageous in entrepreneurship and in politics (see 2016), when one has an actual insight that others cannot yet see. However, when it is so clearly a faith tenet of a particular group, you also run the risk of people who want to affiliate with that group getting overzealous in their application of it. I definitely see the overzealous effort to be a contrarian in Blake Masters’ campaign (he prides himself on being a contrarian in every way) and while I think JD Vance is a bit more judicious in his contrarianism, it’s also apparent there.

    I don’t know how bought into this Joe Kent or say Josh Hawley is (Peter Thiel donated $300K to Josh Hawley’s Missouri campaign in 2016). But Vance and Masters have longer running affiliations with Thiel so I am not surprised to see this kind of behavior from them. Time will tell if it is a winning strategy in politics and if Thiel’s instincts in VC translate.

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  3. Eric Swenson

    Regarding Gov. DeSantis' chances in a Donald-Trump-less election - would that actually result in a weakness for him not on the MAGA side, but on the not-Trump side?
    My generally settled opinion is that, as things stand now, I'm happy to ferociously push for DeSantis. That's not because I'm in love with the man (I think he's got way too many spite the left tendencies) but because I think he's the best shot to primary a candidate that would appeal to MAGA types and still be acceptable enough to traditional Conservatives a rally to overcome the former President. That generally holds even if, say Mike Pence or Kristi Noem were running.
    If Donald Trump doesn't run... who do I vote for? Who does an average not-Trump Republican vote for. The field all of a sudden opens up wide, and I could easily see a lot of people who were happy to vote Ron to stop Trump splitting their vote up among any number of alternative candidates.

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    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    Good show!

    I do take issue with Ms. Isgur's opinion that VP Harris "put lead on the target" and otherwise distinguished herself in her Senate Judiciary Committee hearings. I would say that she read the "When Did You Stop Beating Your Wife" questions prepared by her staffers with moderate skill, especially for someone who doesn't know which side was which (or allied to us) in the Korean War. In my own professional opinion, evaluating her strictly on a lawyer-to-lawyer basis and trying to be absolutely fair about it, she's absolutely positively distinguished herself to be a fabulous Timberlands footwear model, in precisely the same manner that as a statesman, Sen. Rand Paul has shown himself to be a fabulous ophthalmologist.

    I hope you'll have Mr. Kraushaar back, despite the trauma he inflicted upon me when he uttered (I think disapprovingly, but I fear accurately) the phrase: "reporters using Twitter as their Assignments Desk." Twitter delenda est.

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  5. Jon

    Great interview. I always find Josh informative. in 2020 I correctly predicted the Presidency, makeup of the Senate (50-50) and came within 4 seats of correctly predicting the house (but was correct that Rs would pick up seats when almost nobody predicted this). So I am prepared to make my bold predictions for 2022 and make Stirewalt look like an amateur!

    Rs will gain control of the Senate 52-48. Rs will indeed hold PA and OH and pick up two of GA, NV and NH. Yes, NH, the race everyone says is out of contention and nobody is discussing. OZ is a much more formidable candidate then he gets credit for and Fetterman is the "Walker" of the D races this year. Walker and Warnock- (as Matt Taibbi said of the 2020 presidential race- Worst Choice Ever!). But that race will come down within the margin of error +/- 1% and in this environment Walker is not out of it (regardless of the current news). The other alleged races where Rs are in trouble are not actually within reach of the Ds. Johnson will win re-election handily (judged by WI standards) and NC will ultimately be R+4.

    Rs will regain control of the House with a gain of 23 seats. This is lower than prior years because of redistricting, prior R gains and the polarization of the electorate in general but make no mistake- when you take all of these things into account- it is the result of a wave election.

    There will be a few "NJ 2020" results in the Gov races, notably NY and WA. But Rs will come up within 5% short on both. NY in particular would have been a "winnable race" with a better campaign by Zeldin. It will have the feeling of the Bloomberg squeaker of 2008 for Republicans where they will look back and question strategy and funds allocation in a winnable race.

    There you have it. In print for all.

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    1. BSamuel

      Now do the mayoral election in Raleigh

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    2. Maddmac

      Well you've already ruined your credibility by saying there's a Gov race in WA. There isn't.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Larry O

    So I often don't engage with stuff behind the paywall as much as I'd like... but I keep my membership because I believe in the mission of the Dispatch.

    So, I say with love: sound quality is important. I know a lot of you guys come from written media, so my best analogy is this: it's the audio equivalent to writing poor grammar in comic sans as you both annoy your listener and give away your credibility.

    Please give this the attention that you do your site and the quality of your writing, so that other LS can find you and join the mission.

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      Taylor

      I very much agree with you, but I'm sure the Dispatch is in a hard place when they interview guests. They might not even speak with them until moments before recording. And you can't really improve the source audio quality without purchasing something. It is a wonder to me that people in media, who presumably regularly speak with people through computers, still use built-in laptop mics.

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      1. Adaam James Levin-Areddy

        Thank you for these comments, Larry and Taylor! Getting better and more consistent audio quality across the board is certainly a big priority for us. Taylor actually described perfectly (!) the challenges we're facing in this regard. But to Larry's point, I'm currently looking at ways to soften the edges and get our baseline quality higher. It might be a bumpy journey, but know that we definitely hear you -- and want to ensure you hear us as crisply as possible..! (And hey, as we grow, there's a lot more we'll be able to do to sound like the big kids!)

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