Will Mike Johnson Be a Casualty of Congress’ Spending Fight?

Two weeks ago, things were looking okay for Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. His party would enjoy a governing trifecta, and he was preparing to manage a majority in his chamber.

It was set to be a small House majority, possibly 217-215 to start, but one he was looking sure to be the head of. President-elect Donald Trump endorsed him for speaker soon after the election, and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a fierce critic who had previously tried to get him ejected from his post, said she would back him in the January 3 vote.

But then came the fight over government funding, and suddenly Johnson is finding himself hemmed in by his own party, the president-elect, legislative realities, and a ticking clock. Lawmakers have until Friday just before midnight to approve a continuing resolution (CR)—a stopgap spending measure that extends federal funding until a future date—to avert a government shutdown. Right-wing members of the House, who are especially wary of spending, had feared the bill would do more than merely extend the status quo, pulling in other measures unrelated to keeping the government open in order to placate Democrats, whose votes are needed to pass it. 

After Johnson detailed some of the contents in a closed-door GOP conference meeting Tuesday before releasing the text that night, some of those members said their fears had become reality. Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said members were being forced to eat a “crap sandwich.” Beyond the House, incoming Department of Government Efficiency leaders Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy took to X Wednesday to call on members to reject the bipartisan agreement. As a final death blow, Trump spoke out against it. 

While reports were already circulated this week that some House Republicans were planning to vote against Johnson in next month’s speaker election, Rep. Thomas Massie went on the record Wednesday saying he would do so. 

“I’m not at that point, but there are members, both inside and outside the caucus who are much closer to that point,” Freedom Caucus chair Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland told reporters Wednesday. Asked if he thought Johnson had the votes to become speaker, Harris added: “If the vote were held today, he probably does, but the vote’s not held today. It’s held on January 3.”

Johnson said this week he was “not worried about the speaker vote.” But how he navigates the pitfalls of the spending debate will likely determine whether he will lead the House next year. Johnson will need to figure out a way to please rank-and-file members, right-wingers, and Trump. All were dissatisfied with the CR, and Johnson’s handling of the spending negotiations may be all the excuse a few Republicans or the president-elect need to deny him the speakership.

More centrist Republicans were upset about their lack of involvement in the negotiations. During Tuesday’s caucus meeting, Johnson reportedly said crafting it was a collaborative process with House committees, but Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, who chairs the Ways and Means Committee, said that was “not true.” Rep. Scott Fitzgerald told Fox News Digital that there had been “very little back-and-forth with members on specific issues.”

Members of the Freedom Caucus and other spending hawks took issue with the size and scope of the bill. “It’s an omnibus. Let’s call it what it is,” Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida told reporters. “I’m not a fan of it. There’s a lot of stuff in here that members really couldn’t even understand. We’re still figuring out all the stuff that’s in here. We’re not done.” Donalds, whose name had been floated to run against Johnson, declined to say whether the speaker should lose his job if the CR goes through, saying it was, for him, “irresponsible to make a comment on that until members have an opportunity to really digest where they are.”

When he previewed the legislation, Johnson pitched it as “a small CR that we had to add things to that were out of our control,” such as relief for farmers and victims of natural disasters. Other provisions that ended up in the final bill reflected the priorities of Democrats, who for now control the Senate and White House. All told, the bill contained pieces related to: duty-free imports of Haitian textiles, the federal government paying the entire cost of rebuilding the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, the transfer of ownership of Robert F. Kennedy Stadium, and several health care policy changes.

“If you had put a clean CR with just disaster aid, you would have had overwhelming support from Republicans and Democrats,” Florida Rep. Kat Cammack said Wednesday. “This entire thing was an exercise in futility, if you ask me, and it is driving wedges between the conference.” She added that she hoped the bad feelings didn’t spill over into the speaker’s race: “We don’t have time for that, but the fact remains that this package is doing incredible damage within the conference.”

For most of Johnson’s often precarious tenure as speaker, he has been able to draw support from Trump. So when the president-elect, who had stayed quiet during the stopgap negotiations, not only blasted the bill Wednesday but introduced a new wrinkle in the process, it caught many by surprise. “Republicans want to support our farmers, pay for disaster relief, and set our country up for success in 2025,” Trump tweeted in a joint statement with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. “The only way to do that is with a temporary funding bill WITHOUT DEMOCRAT GIVEAWAYS combined with an increase in the debt ceiling. Anything else is a betrayal of our country.”

Raising the debt ceiling—which Trump said was “not great” but something he’d rather do “on Biden’s watch”—had not previously been part of the equation. On Thursday, Trump even suggested abolishing the debt ceiling and in an interview with Fox News Digital called for anyone who “supports a bill that doesn’t take care of” that limit to face primary challenges. Trump also suggested a vague pathway for how Johnson could hang on to his office. “If the speaker acts decisively, and tough, and gets rid of all of the traps being set by the Democrats, which will economically and, in other ways, destroy our country, he will easily remain speaker,” he said.

Johnson spent most of Thursday meeting with representatives of the various GOP factions and trying to come up with a deal. The result was a slimmed-down CR without many of the Democrats’ priorities and with a provision to raise the debt limit. However, the House, as expected, rejected the bill 235-174, with 38 Republicans voting no, including Roy. Of course, anything Johnson proposes would need support from Democrats too. Now, the only way to pass a bill before the shutdown deadline looks to be under suspension of the House rules, which will take a two-thirds majority—never mind the fact that a spending bill also needs 60 votes in the Senate and President Joe Biden’s signature.

Whatever the outcome, the bruising fight will likely leave Johnson in a more vulnerable position come January 3. Asked if the CR battles have endangered the speaker’s position, Rep. Rich McCormick of Georgia said, “absolutely,” noting Johnson did not have his support at the moment. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who criticized the new “Musk-Johnson proposal” Thursday, has been firm in his resolve to not bail out Johnson should he face a revolt from his conference on the speakership vote. As recently as last week he said “no Democratic votes will be forthcoming for any Republican Speaker candidate on January 3.”

On Thursday, Jeffries was just as resolute. The Dispatch asked him if Democrats would consider supporting Johnson’s bid for speaker if he gives them a CR they approve of.

“No,” Jeffries replied.