Assad’s Earthquake Opportunism

The regime in Damascus tries to shed its pariah status while simultaneously stalling relief work.

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visits Aleppo, on February 10. (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)

After more than a decade of destructive civil war, the Syrian people are now reeling from massive earthquakes. Yet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sees an opportunity: While this month’s earthquakes killed at least 41,000 people in Syria and Turkey and left many more homeless, Assad has used the disaster to try to legitimize his contested rule. 

Last week, the United States Treasury announced a six-month freeze on sanctions against the Syrian government involving “all transactions related to earthquake relief.” Though U.S. officials insisted none of their existing penalties on Damascus targeted humanitarian aid shipments, the move followed finger-pointing from regime officials who wasted no time in blaming Western sanctions for their own deficient response to the catastrophe. 

“I want to make very clear that U.S. sanctions in Syria will not stand in the way of life-saving efforts for the Syrian people,” Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo said in announcing the temporary measure. “While U.S. sanctions programs already contain robust exemptions for humanitarian efforts, today Treasury is issuing a blanket General License to authorize earthquake relief efforts so that those providing assistance can focus on what’s needed most: saving lives and rebuilding.”

While his government complained about sanctions, the dictator of more than two decades has been stalling the delivery of life-saving relief for political gain. Until last week, the regime had insisted that all international assistance be routed through the Damascus government, delaying aid shipments to some of the hardest-hit areas in the country’s rebel-held northwest. 

On Tuesday, the United Nations brokered a deal with Assad to open two new border crossings for aid to enter opposition-controlled territory by way of Turkey. But critics say the UN-brokered agreement gives Assad’s unpopular regime badly needed political capital, as well as the appearance of dominion over opposition-controlled regions.

U.S. officials have also expressed concern about Assad’s compliance with the UN deal. “We’re not completely confident that Mr. Assad is going to abide by that [deal], that he might act in capricious ways here,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday. “We have, I think, good reason to suspect that.” 

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield this week introduced a resolution to codify the deal at the UN Security Council, where Assad-aligned Russia regularly vetoes the creation of UN-run aid operations into opposition-held Syria. But it’s unclear whether the effort will have the votes, and time to secure a reliable flow of humanitarian aid is running out.

After visiting some of the stricken areas of Turkey and Syria, UN aid chief Martin Griffiths declared on Tuesday that the region was facing “a crisis of colossal proportions.” Nearly nine million people have been affected by the earthquakes in Syria alone, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimated, with most of them in parts of the country that have been ravaged by more than a decade of civil war. The ongoing conflict, in addition to weakening the region’s infrastructure and exacerbating the death toll, makes delivering aid that much more difficult. 

A Syrian refugee from the war-torn city of Aleppo and program officer at the Turkey-based Önder Organization—which has been providing field support to earthquake victims in Syria and Turkey—said the patchwork of different territorial holdings in northern Syria resembles Game of Thrones. He added that the Assad regime has a history of actively targeting non-profits like his as they distribute aid to opposition-held areas. (The refugee, who is not a Turkish citizen, asked not to be identified for fear of retribution.)

The U.S. committed $85 million in disaster relief to address the unfolding disaster last week, but Washington—which severed all remaining ties to Damascus in 2012 amid the Syrian civil war—and many other international backers avoid channeling aid through the government for fear of enriching the repressive Assad regime.

Still, some countries have apparently softened on assisting the Assad regime in the wake of the disaster. Saudi Arabia this week delivered its first aid shipment to government-held territory in Syria since the war broke out. Several other Middle Eastern and Asian countries have started sending support by way of Damascus as well. “The Syrian people welcome and respond to any positive stance towards them, especially from the Arab brothers,” Assad said this week. 

But it’s unclear whether many Syrians in areas outside government control will ever see this desperately needed relief.

“Here we have electricity. We have water,” said Mahmut Alchehadi, CEO of the Gaziantep-based Orange Organization, after crossing the border into non-regime Syria a few days after the earthquakes first struck. “But, in Syria, they don’t have electricity. They don’t have water. They don’t have anything.”

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  1. Avatar photo
    JohnM.

    This was an excellent report, Charlotte. Thank you.

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    Jeff Walden

    Re the earthquakes: is this an opportunity for Finland to give a bunch of earthquake aid that gets Turkey to accede to them entering NATO, without any of the present stonewalling? And if it is, is Finland considering or making any moves in the direction of doing so? It's kinda gross to have to buy your way in, but there are much worse solutions than dispensing aid in the aftermath of a humanitarian disaster.

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    Ben Connelly

    Charlotte, when you get back to the States, hopefully Steve or Sarah or Declan will have you on the podcast to discuss this in greater detail the way Steve had Khaya on to discuss the election denial issue last year.

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  4. Russell J

    The U.N. is predictably embarrassing. I can’t remember a single constructive thing done during the Ukraine crisis. In the 90’s it was easy to criticize but they made a show of aiding war torn and disaster afflicted areas. Guess it doesn’t help to have a country with an evil dictator on the security council.

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  5. DTruitt

    The authors of the recently revised book, "Dictator's Handbook" devoted a full chapter to why foreign aid is the worst thing that free nations can do for nations governed by dictators. The foreign aid always ends up being diverted to the dictator's purposes, whether to line his or her own pockets and/or those of their key supporters, and effectively little to none of it goes to the citizens of the dictatorship. All dictatorships are built upon the key principle that the public goods must be diverted to the dictator and the key supporters without whom the dictator would quickly fall.

    The correct approach is to deny ALL foreign aid to any and all dictatorships. It will never accrue to the benefit of the intended citizens, only enrich the dictator and his cronies. Foreign aid, including humanitarian aid, always, I repeat always extends the life of the dictatorship.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Scarlette Tarte

      Private enterprise faces the same issue. Many African nations possess wealth in the form of resources, like oil or diamonds. Private companies want access to that. Most often, in nations led by strongmen or dictators, they have to pay them to get access. This is often played up by the dictator, who says ," look, I got this company to dedicate 1 million dollars to our schools or hospitals" or whatever. When in reality, the company gave the dictator 500 million dollars, 499 million which he kept for himself.

      So all companies should also not be aiding in extending the life of dictators.

      And this happens everywhere, not just Africa...in places like Afghanistan, private companies have had a hand in keeping groups like the Taliban in power.

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    2. Hartzlk

      Sounds like an interesting book. I may try to work that in to my reading schedule.

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      1. DTruitt

        Yeah, it's a great read (authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Alastair Smith), originally issued a little over a decade ago and updated and revised just last year, taking note of happenings in the interim that only reinforce the author's analysis of how dictators get and keep power and eventually lose power. A lot of what they postulate is counter to conventional wisdom (which is why conventional wisdom is often not very wise - just conventional).

        Dictators get and keep power by stealing public goods and keeping it for themselves and their key supporters who keep them in power. As much as a dictator would love to keep it all for himself, that is how he becomes an ex-dictator, because if the key supporters who keep him in power feel they aren't being compensated enough, they're open to switching sides, or at least withdrawing support, under the right circumstances such as foreign threats or domestic revolution.

        Truly free democracies end up devoting most of the public goods to the public, which is how their leaders stay in power. Sure, some democratic leaders may manage to squirrel away public goods for themselves and their supporters, but if they get caught they get voted out of office or imprisoned. The majority of nations rank somewhere in between the dictatorships and the truly free democracies in terms of how much of the public goods get stolen and redirected.

        It's like the old saying in journalism, "Follow the money!" As much as political activists and wonks and true believers want to believe that they and their movements are based upon principles, the reality is that people are greedy and greed is the greatest motivator of all when it comes to getting and keeping power. Fear is the second greatest motivator, and so dictators use heavy doses of both greed and fear.

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