Democrats Are Right to Worry About Biden in 2024

The president’s best bet might be to woo the anti-Trump coalition.

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President Joe Biden walks across the South Lawn before boarding Marine One and departing the White House on November 3, 2023, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

One of Joe Biden’s favorite campaign lines is, “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.” In the wake of a series of polls earlier this month, Democrats were thrown into a panic because voters in key battleground states did exactly that and chose Donald Trump as their preferred candidate.

The public freakout abated a bit after last week’s off-year elections in which Democrats scored some wins in Virginia, Kentucky, and—most importantly—Ohio. But in private, Democrats remain very worried. And they should be. If the election were held today, Biden would almost surely lose.

The good news for Biden is that the “if the election were held today” framing isn’t a particularly fruitful way of thinking about an election a year out. If Trump is the GOP nominee—still an “if,” but not that big of one—a tsunami of negative ads and negative coverage will quickly follow.

But will it work? It’s not like Trump coverage has been all that positive until now. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report notes that Trump’s support in most battleground states is almost exactly his share of the vote in 2020. Trump hasn’t gained a lot of supporters, but he hasn’t lost many either. It’s Biden who has lost voters across the board. In 2020, Biden won the Electoral College thanks to a mere 43,000 votes across Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. Trump now leads in all three of those states.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Jhc

    "Biden’s dilemma—and his only path out—can be found in the fact that he’s lost support from both the anti-Trump forces and moderate Republicans."

    Amen to this. As I've commented several times earlier (months ago) in this comments section, the Democrats need to figure out how to appeal to moderate voters -- both Democrats & Republicans -- by running more moderate candidates who propose a more moderate agenda. That includes the President and Vice President, of course.

    The usual left-leaning response here has been, "Why in hell would we want to do *that*?!" 🙄

    Because many regard Trump as an existential threat to American politics, maybe? Because the existence of the U.S. system of governance is more important than whatever policy changes the Left would like to see? Doesn't an appeal to a broader base seem like THE obvious play to defeat Trump?

    I'm assuming that defeating Trump is the Left's #1 priority... but maybe it's not. 🤷‍♂️

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  2. Remnantartist

    I think those of us, and The Dispatch subscribers are definitely in this camp, who follow politics regularly might do well to check out just a little bit in regards to presidential politics. In my daily life interacting with people for whom politics is not a major source of entertainment or meaning I really do not hear much about any candidate or even that the election of 2024 is on their radar. So for now I'm going to take any prediction of Trump over performing his 2020 results with a huge grain of salt. Also the abortion issue is such a huge, huge problem for republicans generally and I really suspect as the democrats turn up the heat on the issue its going to be at a fever pitch among my age cohort of elder millenials, particularly women. No amount of Trump becoming wishy-washy on the issue of life is going to turn otherwise pro-abortion millennial women pro-Trump. I also have a hard time believing the small but noisy pro-Hamas contingent on the left is going to make trouble for Democrats in swing states.

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  3. Rossknode

    I understand what Jonah is saying but how many of those people in the polls who are saying they would vote for Trump would actually vote for him for REAL next year with him under indictment, potentially found guilty in several of his trials, and with his "vengeance" language getting even darker and more unhinged? I could see myself right now telling a pollster I would vote for Trump as a message I don't like things Biden is doing, but there is zero chance I'd vote any way (including for a 3rd party) that could help Trump regain the presidency.

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    Marc Frischhertz

    I am not in love with Biden or his policies, but when I watch clips of Trump speak I realize that under no circumstances can I vote for him or for anyone that results In increasing the likelihood that Trump returns to the Whitehouse.

    My thoughts turn to issue polling. For example, I keep hearing on the news that 60+% of Americans think Israel should agree to a ceasefire. My first and only thought is why does the opinion of uninformed masses matter? Nearly all Americans, myself included, don’t know what is actually happening and don’t have the knowledge base to render an informed opinion. The media shows people suffering and the masses emotional opine that a ceasefire will end that suffering. Much of what they see is full of half truths anyway.

    An analogy to medical care comes to mind. Assume you have a tumor, you consult to 2 world renown doctors who agree that it needs to be surgically removed. You also show your MRI of the tumor to 100 strangers, none of whom have any medical training. 90% of them think you should stop fighting the tumor because of all the healthy cells that will die during the fight. Under no circumstances am I listening to the uninformed, uneducated majority.

    We live in a time where most people think their opinion on a subject, mostly informed through social media, is as valid as experts in the field. It drives me crazy.

    Tying this back to presidential politics, neither Trump nor Biden are experts in warfare, economics, or any number of issues on which as president they are called upon to make decisions. So I vote character l vote decision making process, I vote based on the people you surround yourself with. And when it comes to Trump, I can never vote for him again.

    I would say to those on the far left, fuck your feelings and those on the far right, fuck your opinions.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Eahay19

      Agreed to a point. Unfortunately our elected leaders are beholden to those uneducated masses. Polling tells those leaders what they need to do to get re-elected so they can keep on leadering, with all the perks and trappings of power that come with it. The best thing that our leaders can do is to try to sell the unpopular position by educating those uneducated masses. But that takes work, and I would have to say that our elected leaders aren’t as interested in doing so as they are of doing the least amount of work to get re-elected. It’s depressing, but that’s politics 😕

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    2. Ufodaddy

      Pretty much with you on all of this, Marc.

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  5. Pwjohns1983

    At most a third of this country actually wants Trump to be our president but because the other two-thirds cant agree on who else should be our president we are doomed.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Eahay19

      It’s saddening to read this and think that it might actually be true that 1 out of every 3 voting Americans supports a man who was more than willing to knock over the Constitution in service of his own vanity, megalomaniacal aspirations of greatness and, more specifically, ego. I truly do fear for the future of our republic. How many generations away are we from the twilight of the shining city on the hill?

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      Jhc

      Good summary IMO.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Jerry McKamy

    The wild card is a Trump convicted of multiple felonies and facing prison if all the interminable appeals don't all play out for him. Who knows how that would impact the election? Literally, the Lord only knows.

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    Brian Ruff

    All I would add to the conversation is that Trump's criminal court cases are a major variable yet to be resolved. They'll be heating up at the end of the primary season, with a conviction possible before the GOP convention.

    I still believe that criminal convictions, regardless of whether or not a plurality considers them unjust, carry a lot of power. They could force the Republican party to crash into the real world, at long last.

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    1. Whiskeyman

      In your opinion, if we are talking about the 100% pie of current Trump voters, how many would change their vote because he gets convicted? I ask because I'm genuinely curious. As I'm thinking about it off the top of my head I'm thinking max 5%.

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  8. CB76

    "If Trump is the GOP nominee—still an “if,” but not that big of one—a tsunami of negative ads and negative coverage will quickly follow.

    But will it work? It’s not like Trump coverage has been all that positive until now. Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report notes that Trump’s support in most battleground states is almost exactly his share of the vote in 2020. Trump hasn’t gained a lot of supporters, but he hasn’t lost many either. It’s Biden who has lost voters across the board."

    Hard to understand how Mr. Goldberg would miss the logical conclusion to be drawn from this section of his piece. That tsunami of negative adds isn't going to pry off those Trump supporters he hasn't lost, that much is certainly true. But it sure will make a lot of dem leaning voters from all parts of the ideological spectrum who are disappointed with Biden begin to sweat out the potential consequences of staying home or voting third party next November.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Retired Prosecutor

      The Trump of 2023 is scarier and angrier than his previous iteration. But because of his few public appearances and his absence from the debates, few voters seem to be aware of this change. The Dems are going to have a treasure trove of oppo - most of it Trump in his own recent words - to choose from. Plus the election denialism trope of his has been proven to be a dead bang loser. I’m betting the polling numbers markedly change if Trump wins the nomination.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Eahay19

        All we can do is keep our fingers crossed and pray that somewhere between now and a year from now, enough people come to their senses and realize that their vote is the choice between an insurrectionist and a not-insurrectionist. That is the ONLY criteria that matters in 2024.

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      2. Avatar photo
        Campfire Cook

        Has any president ever fired his VP?

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        1. Avatar photo
          Peter.Schwartz

          Lincoln's VPs: Hannibal Hamlin and Andrew Johnson.

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          Retired Prosecutor

          FDR replaced his VP running mate three different times: John Nance Garner, Henry Wallace, and Harry S. Truman were his VPs.

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        3. Misterharban

          Yes. FDR

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  9. Pohl

    I wouldn’t advise Biden to dial up support for abortion if Jonah’s tale of wayward independents and moderate Republicans is accurate. The best thing he could do is drop Kamala for someone who would be more popular than himself, with that person still not being Kamala.

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    Gibby

    I think the "rose garden campaign" strategy was always going to be a problem. I mean we knew really in 2020 that Biden wouldn't have been able to campaign even if there was no pandemic.

    there has been so much presumption on the part of Democrats that Trump is the magic formula for success.

    The thing is that sometimes they are right (2022 and recent off year elections as well as Biden winning in 2020) And sometimes they are wrong (2016, 2020......Trump still did frighteningly well even though he lost....surprised most of us I would say, and current polls)

    I think both left and right rely on Trump to cure all their ills. Someone is going to be wrong.

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