Did the GOP Peak Too Soon?

In just the last few weeks, the Biden administration has enjoyed political and legislative victories that are quieting talk of a ‘red tsunami’ in the midterms.

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You know why it’s a cliche to say “X amount of time is a lifetime in politics”? Just look at how August is shaping up.

Just a few weeks ago, buzz over the coming “red tsunami” in the midterms was common. All of a sudden that sounds more like wishful thinking.

The change has come so suddenly, polls are still lagging behind what hipsters might call a political “vibe shift.” Yet even some long-term trends support the idea the GOP peaked too soon. In January, Republicans led by 7 percentage points on the generic ballot (which asks which party should control Congress), an unprecedented advantage for Republicans. Democrats are now ahead by 7 percentage points, a 14-point swing.

At the end of July, the political conversation was dominated with talk of Biden’s failing presidency, his historic unpopularity, and the question of whether he would even run again. Since then, we’ve seen a series of legislative victories, including the Inflation Reduction Act (thanks to Democrats finally corralling Sens. Joe Manchin III and Kyrsten Sinema), the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri, and a hugely strong jobs report that lends credence to the White House’s “it’s not a recession!” messaging.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Bono Vox

    Never underestimate the stupidity of the Trump voter and Trumpers collective d illusion that everyone and everything should revolve around his cult of personality. The soon to be losers at the ballot box (Hershel Walker, are you fing kidding me, WTF is he even doing on the ballot for SENATOR of the UNITED STATES!!! I wouldn’t let him coach my kids Pop Warner game, aand not because he is THE quintessential DUMB joke…oh, wait, I cannot say that, I know what you are thinking….all men are prejudiced) that grovel at Trumps feet have the collective IQ of a thought bubble…The Devil went down to Georgia and cost the GOP not one, but two Senate seats….and two years hence, the Grand Old Party Crasher is still burning down the house the Reagan coalition built …for the love of God and country, INDICT TRUMP…#REMEMBERASHLIBABITT, she died for a complete fing BIG LIE uttered over and over and over again by a shameless, mendacious, narcissistic, megalomaniac conman, crony capitalist pig,serial adulterer , casino card shark magnate, and America’s Biggest Sore Loser Donald J Trump. Gotta run on. Thanks for taking my rant Dispatch. Peace through superior mental firepower

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  2. Roger

    It’s the evil party vs. the crazy party. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.

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  3. Patrick E

    As has been said on this website many times about both parties, "all they have to do is not be crazy". Sadly, that seems too much of an ask.

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    Earl King

    I’ll say it again; don’t ever count out Republicans doing something that screws up their chances.

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  5. Pohl

    I’ve already forgotten most of this article. I will say I could care less if the GOP fails to win the House if the only way to win is electing a bunch of Trump’s useful idiots. I want to penalize the Stupid Party, and let the Stoopid Party stay in power a little while longer.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Rajeev

    As someone myself that sees both sides of the abortion debate, I still realize that there is no 15 week "safe harbor" law for abortion. The issue with abortion is that it is so passionate that regardless if it should be a state matter, Americans will never settle for that. If there is not one standard across the country it will remain front and center of controversies. Most average citizens have a strong opinion on the issue but very few of those opinions are that depends on what city you are in. Even the middle that people talk about that is legal until second trimester, the people that support that would want it across the board.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Rajeev

    This happens every midterm election. Reality is no one cares about midterm elections in general. Barack Obama lost midterms in 2010 for the simple reason he wasn't on the ballot and all his opposition will show up. Same in 2014.

    President Biden's approval rating won't matter that much because even if it were high his supporters won't show up to vote for random people they don't know.

    The only reason the Democrats have a chance to keep the Senate and mitigate the losses in the house was the overturn of Roe vs. Wade. While that battle will 90% play out in 2024, some demographics that were friendly to Biden (suburban women) will turn out in a midterm election year and vote Democrat just on that issue. It's never been an issue Democrats could turn out on because the final dagger into Roe hadn't happened. Now it has and it will drive (regardless of your position on the issue) moderates in legions to vote Democrat in 2024 and drive some voters in lesser numbers to vote Democrat in key senate and house races this fall.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Johntadian

    Take the House, stanch the idiotic spending sprees, impose gridlock and let Biden go back in the basement for the next two years, where he's most comfortable. Looks like it's come to this. God, I hate our politics.

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    1. Alan

      And you wonder why conservatives can’t govern

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        Johntadian

        Yeah, the dems are doing a bang-up job.

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        1. Alan

          I mean you can’t argue they are t governing

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  9. Natty Bumpo

    I have no particular fondness for either party, as the MAGA and MAGA-permissive Republicans have done a fine job of alienating my affections for the GOP. As to congressional politics - I have been redistricted into the arms of one of the bluer congresspeople, who is very unlikely to be unseated by the Republican candidate (who is, as of now, nearly invisible). On the Senate side, I care not at all for either candidate, and have a hard time seeing myself vote for either the 'home-grown' progressive or the carpetbagger from NJ.

    I think I will be content with a split congress if it comes to that.

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  10. Avatar photo
    Aylene Wright

    So interestingly Nate Silver now thinks the Democrats has about a 20% chance of keeping the House "per the 538 model".

    That's not the same as a Blue Wave though.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1557358640960602117

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