Michigan’s Race to ‘Normal’

The contest to represent Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District will test whether local forces can buck national trends.

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John Gibbs, center, talks to supporters. (Photo by Sarah Rice for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will find out in three weeks if its gambit to boost election-denying Republicans in primaries this year will pay off, and one revealing case will be Michigan’s 3rd District.

In July, the DCCC dropped $435,000 in advertisements subtly boosting John Gibbs, the Trump-endorsed challenger to incumbent freshman Rep. Peter Meijer—who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump after the events of January 6. 

Gibbs defeated Meijer by 3.6 points, which led political analysts at the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball to change the district’s rating from tossup to lean Democratic.

Gibbs—who says the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and questions whether November’s election will be fair—has for months framed the race as “not Democrat versus Republican so much as crazy versus normal.” His Democratic opponent, Hillary Scholten, is hoping she can be the one to come across as normal—and she’s disavowed the DCCC helping candidates Democrats say are a threat to the country.

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  1. Gregory Graham

    I live in this district as well. Would have voted for Meijer (and I do think he would have beaten Scholten again easily). Won’t vote Trumpy either, going for the crazy Libertarians again in this round.

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    1. GTG

      BTW, nice for Scholten that she can disavow the DCCC and still benefit. And I don’t believe for a second that she will “stop the spending.”

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  2. Nicco

    Gibbs seems like a bit of a nut, but that as with his mom was really good. It may normalize him just enough in the eyes of skeptical conservative voters.

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  3. Richard Kennedy

    My vote in my district here just north of Detroit hasn’t meant much for a long time. Haley Stevens or a business man who ducks the 2020 question and the latter doesn’t have chance because of the R after his name. It is the crowd below and above this that is really hopeless here. Catoggio reported a Republicans for Whitmer thing. That’s a hard no for me, as is Tudor Dixon, I think.

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    Wilhelm

    Interesting piece, Price.

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  5. Matt Peterson

    I'm writing in Meijer

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  6. Craig Berry

    For people of my belief system this is indicative of the terrible choices we have as voters. I’m passionately pro-life but (if I were a voter in this district) my choice would be voting for the pro-choice person or voting for some goober who traffics in crazy election theories. Maybe I have to face the fact that more and more this is my choice and have to work through what I do.

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      Battlemaiden82

      It is very challenging! I am pro-life/whole-life myself. In MI, however, we have the opportunity to vote against abortion with Proposal 3. Therefore, I am more comfortable with voting for Scholten (who doesn't seem as rabidly pro-abortion as some democrats), in order to vote against Gibbs, who is a blatant election denier. He already said he wouldn't believe the results if he loses in November.

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    Gibby

    whats the current polls say? I'm starting to feel that any race thats say five points or less right now will break republican. I cannot imagine an undecided breaking democrat at this point. If you were afraid of the trumpists you would have ceased being undecided long ago. I think the GOP will get ALL the undecideds that are left

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    1. Acre00

      FiveThirtyEight gives Scholten a 59% chance of winning. They only list a single poll, which has Scholten at +9

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      Battlemaiden82

      Living in this district myself, I haven't seen any polls for this race- only that Scholten has more money. With the recent redistricting, I am as curious as anyone how this is going to go!

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    Professor Gizmo

    I live in this district. I have historically voted republican. I believe the most important issue facing our country is the influence of Donald Trump. It's important that his influence is eliminated. This year I will vote democratic in this race.

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      Rlritt

      I agree. He is a dangr to tge country. He needs to be stopped.

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      Battlemaiden82

      I also live in this district, and voted for Meijer and Amash in the 12 years I have lived here. This year I am voting for Scholten. Election deniers do not get my vote.

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  9. Genny

    The Democrats are trying a gambit that carries too much risk. That's not a good thing. But look at the Republican voters who believe anything they're told. They'll vote the way Democrats tell them to, or Republicans. They are useful pawns for anyone who wants to use them.

    But, having said that, would these Republican voters have voted for a (somewhat) principled Republican? There's no guarantee that Meijer would have won, even without Democratic interference. Looking at other primary races, quality of candidate doesn't appear high on the list of things they are looking for in candidates. In my district's primary, the more-reasonable-than-most-Republicans candidate finally had to bend the knee and say a lot of stupid Trumpy stuff near the end to get his polling numbers up and win his race. Even if a reasonable Republican candidate won, once they get to Congress, the party would make them toe the party line. It's frustrating because even voting for and trying to send better Republican candidates to Congress doesn't have enough momentum presently to overcome the hammer coming down once in Washington. It's why I feel that there is no such thing as a principled Republican vote at this time. The majority of Republican voters still want their ears tickled with lies, and it's lies that get the majority of Republican votes.

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      Rlritt

      So true.

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    Joseph.A.Timmer

    It’s a hard choice between not wanting the DCCC rewarded for bad behavior and not wanting a crazy person representing you in Congress. I ended up skipping the box.

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