NATO’S Nordic Moment

Sweden and Finland joining NATO would create huge opportunities—not only for their own security and peace of mind but NATO itself, especially in the Arctic

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A month before the invasion of Ukraine, on January 26, I wrote this in National Review on how getting Sweden and Finland to join NATO could help deter Putin: 

Offering them full membership in NATO will not only give them Article 5 security against any future Russian incursions along their border. It will give Putin something to worry about regarding his very vulnerable northern frontier. 

Now, two months into Putin’s invasion, it looks like what I urged is about to happen. According to a report in the Guardian, Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit simultaneous membership applications to the U.S.-led NATO alliance, perhaps as soon as mid-May. 

The response from Moscow has been thunderous threats if the two Nordics dare to take this step. Swedes and Finns realize there are indeed risks to joining NATO—one reason why neither has until now, even though their Nordic neighbors Norway and Denmark were founding members in 1949. Nearly one quarter of the prospective members’ combined land mass lies above the Arctic Circle. Both have to be wondering if other NATO members will really risk going to war under Article 5 if Russia makes an aggressive move so far from the center of Europe. In addition, Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia, along which Russians and Finns have fought for many years. If Russia was willing to risk all-out war to keep Ukraine out of NATO, skeptics ask, what will Moscow do to Finland when it votes to get in? 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Sweden and Finland would bring a lot to NATO precisely because of the Arctic issues. The US Navy and Coast Guard icebreaker fleet is woefully inadequate right now (which Congress should do something about). This is an area in which it would be in our strategic interests to work closely with two countries that can bring something to the table that our own fleet is missing.

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    Rajeev

    Finland has a lot more to risk than Sweden by entertaining joining NATO. But they also will have a lot more to gain by actually joining it given their geography.

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    Vlad M.

    The Nordic countries take defense seriously. If they join NATO, the alliance will benefit not only from their staunch pro-Western stance and qualified troops, but also from excellent strategic cooperation. Sweden and Finland have also provided above average military support to Ukraine.

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    Matt J

    Let Putin bluster about retaliation. If he tried to invade Finland before they joined NATO, he'd only open up a second front. Imagine that - another lesson from WW2 ignored.

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    MatthewRobin

    From an American security perspective, Putin's plans for the Artic worries me more than his misadventures in Ukraine.

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      Vlad M.

      That's not "an American security" perspective. That's an isolationist perspective. The distinction matters. Whereas the isolationist feels warm and fuzzy on the inside as the Russian troops kill, maim and deport thousands upon thousands in Ukraine, the American security perspective gains nothing. If Russia attacks and occupies large swaths of Eastern Europe, America loses quite a lot: it emboldens Moscow to attack other countries and expand its influence in the EU, it shakes the confidence in NATO and in US leadership etc.

      As a side note, us, Eastern Europeans, are the pro-American Europeans. It's lovely to see how little this matters in certain American circles.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Gene Godbold

        It's human nature to not care or think too much about folks a long way away from you. Especially if you've never met anybody like that. (I'm not saying that's good.)

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        MatthewRobin

        I want to defend US interest in the Artic and that makes me an isolationist, lol.

        For serious Dispatchers who want to engage with my foreign policy views, please check out my substack.

        https://infraredline.substack.com/

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        1. Avatar photo
          Vlad M.

          The "American security perspective" is a lot more complex than "let's give Eastern Europe to the Russians" but don't get facts get in the way.

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  6. Tom K.

    Both Sweden and Finland are landlocked in the Arctic.

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      Gene Godbold

      I don't think "landlocked" can be appropriately applied to those vast expanses of Baltic real estate.

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      1. Tom K.

        It can in the context of the Arctic sea access that the author refers to. The Arctic Circle passes well north of the Gulf of Bothnia. Certainly the Baltic submarine access provided by Sweden's navy would be very beneficial.

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