The Latest Polls Bear Bad News for Trump

Voters endorse their governors' handling of the pandemic over the president's, and Biden leads in key states.

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A flurry of polls came out this week looking at both the government’s response to coronavirus and the 2020 presidential election, and there was very little good news for President Trump as he looks ahead to the November election.

Less than a quarter of Americans “say they have high levels of trust in what the president is telling the public” about the virus, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll released this week. 

And in this week’s CBS News poll, seven in 10 Americans “think their state and local officials are doing a good job.” But when asked about Trump, “fewer than half think the same.” Gallup found that 68 percent of Americans “say they have ‘a great deal’ or a ‘fair amount’ of confidence in their state’s governor to make the right economic recommendations” but fewer than half said the same for the president.

When you drill down to the states most pivotal to Trump’s re-election, the numbers don’t look better. A recent Public Policy Polling survey of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina found that, on average, “the Democratic governors of those four battleground states have a net approval rating for their job on handling the coronavirus crisis that is 32 points higher than Trump’s.”

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  1. Bob Metzger

    I really thought the Dispatch was better than to bother quoting any polls this far out. I’m disappointed! They have never been reliable, or even close to correct. Perhaps there is some wishful thinking in this, for the writer but only really stupid people outside his base would vote Biden. He won’t be President if he’s elected just a place keeper. For the VP

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    Alan Tio

    What I read into the comments to this piece is a growing lack of enthusiasm that reminds me of what the D’s experienced the last time around. How many fewer voters pulled a lever for Clinton in ‘16 than had done so for Obama in ‘12? There has to be a limit to how much people can tolerate of politicians like the Clinton’s and Trump when every. Day. Is. A. New. Crisis. I didn’t miss that about the Clinton’s and won’t miss it about Trump, either.

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    Frank Vergden

    I looked at the Texas A&M study you referenced and that big gap in Pennsylvania assumes that restrictions are lifted. I think the summary provided of the finding mischaracterizes it something, as it implies that the projection refers to a scenario where restrictions are in place as well.

    Also it should be noted that the high fatality figures are at least mildly questionable, given that they assume that if lockdown restrictions are lifted, the disease will be able to spread at it's natural rate, i.e. people will not voluntarily socially distance or take other precautions. Even if all covid-related restrictions were suspended overnight in a jurisdiction (a somewhat implausible outcome), it doesn't seem likely that people wouldn't at least partially modify their behavior.

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    Pat Riot

    Trump is setting himself up to *own* the downsides to this crisis, and the worse it gets (and it will get a *lot* worse as the effects reverberate), the worse it will be for him.

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  5. Paul Zummo

    I had an interesting conversation with my brother in New York, who I would classify as a Trump supporter but who is more passionate about his hatred of the media. We were talking about the pressers, and he said he had to stop watching them because they were making him mad. I assumed he was going to go into a tirade about the way the media treat Trump, but his anger was aimed at the president and the stupid way he talks, even going so far as to mocking the president, which he doesn't usually do. My brother also indicated he knows about a dozen people who have died from COVID, and that no doubt influences his feelings. But I was surprised at the level of anger he had about the press conferences, and I am starting to see more of that in more Trump friendly venues.

    All that being said, though, if I had to wager I would bet my brother still votes for Trump (if he votes at all). Moreover, we are about six months out from the election, which today translates to roughly the equivalent of 180 different news cycles, give or take, so I'm hesitant to declare Trump to be toast.

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      Aylene Wright

      I think there is a difference between Trump supporters and Trump cultists. Your brother seems to actually be more anti-anti-Trump. I actually personally know a Trump supporter, I was at his wedding even. But he's not a cultist who thinks UV light shines out of ... well, you can guess.

      To put it a tad cruder / cynical way, many people who wouldn't care if Trump shot some rando on 5th Avenue, *would* care if he shot someone they cared about, and certainly would care if he shot *them*.

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        cheerio

        I have two friends at work that are/were Trump supporters. One of them still says rosaries for him and should know better about the "UV light treatments" and makes excuses, the other who prior to the stock market tanking was all "as long as my 401K looks great I'm good..." thinks he is crazy or just stupid and incompetent now. The former is a Baby Boomer-- a bit past retirement age and the other is a few years younger than me. I don't know if generational cohorts make a difference. But for the latter I only good-naturedly ask how that 401K is doing once a week.

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    Paul Montagu

    The approval ratings are interesting, but I've been watching the head-to-head match-ups, especially the ones in the battleground states, but only the polls after March because March 30 is when more died from the virus than those who perished on 9/11.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
    There is a notable difference in Florida. On 3/31 and after, there are four polls and Biden is up by 3.3%. The four prior polls had Trump up by 0.5% on average.
    Biden is up by 8 in Michigan (only one post-March poll). The prior poll had him up by 3.
    Biden has always been up in PA, but the April average is +7.
    The surprising state is AZ, with a +9 margin in April for Biden. It makes me wonder if TX might be in play.

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      Pat Riot

      And Biden has yet to begin his campaign for the most part. Wait until the PACs are start flooding the airwaves with all of Trump's quotes. You better believe that 100% of Americans will know about yesterday's bleach thing before November.

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      1. Dave D.

        That cuts both ways. The less of Joe on TV, the better for Joe. This has been an ideal scenario for him

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          Pat Riot

          Basically all Joe needs to do is dress up nice and wave and he'll win in a landslide of the election is anything close to fair.

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      Paul Montagu

      No idea why the dup.

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        Idontdocute

        I know....it disappears after a bit.

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    Pastorfbt

    I wonder if any of those R Senators who concluded it was alright to leave this guy in office are having even the least misgivings or twinges of conscience

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    1. Dave D.

      They didn't have any choice. You can't remove a President for a minor issue. Everyone is to blame, from the party that nominated an unlikable corruptocrat in Hillary to the masses who chose Trump as their middle finger to the establishment of both parties and the culture. We voted him in and we must be punished.

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      1. David D

        Extorting a foreign government via federal funds to announce a bs investigation into a political oponent crushing you in the polls = minor issue....yup

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    2. John Cheyney

      I doubt it. If they did they had the chance with impeachment. Their silence speaks volumes

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    cheerio

    I don't understand why this whack job is still in office or at least in front of a microphone and a camera. The FDA had to make public safety announcements to try and prevent people from poisoning themselves.

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    Ray Salemi

    Trump was going to lose before all this. There was no way Clorox Don was going to improve.

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      Theirn Scott

      I'm not so sure he was going to lose before all of this. But these pressers have been devastating. I won't be able to bring myself to vote for Biden. I'm sure I'll stick with the Libertarian Party regardless of which whacko they nominate. I can't stand the two dominant parties.

      I hate to say this but I just hope if Biden wins it's in a landslide.

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      1. Richard Fulmer

        My policy is to always vote Libertarian because they're sure to lose. That way I never have to spend the next four years apologizing for my vote.

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        Ray Salemi

        Then it seems you should vote for him

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          Theirn Scott

          I didn't agree with his policies before he was pulled left. The point of the landslide is I don't want there to be any doubt about the integrity of the election.

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            Ray Salemi

            Then it seems you should vote for him.

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      Paul Montagu

      I wish I could believe that "Trump was going to lose before all this," but I predicted that Trump was toast right after the ride down the Golden Escalator when he said "some [Mexicans], I assume, are good people".
      Unless I have a working flux capacitor and a De Lorean that can hit 88 MPH, I'm out of the prediction business.

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      1. Melissa

        LOL!

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        Ray Salemi

        That was a fluke. He’s now behind in the states he won by a total of 70,000 votes.

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      cheerio

      Isn't there a backbone and a brain available in the Senate and the Cabinet? At the very least, they need to fly him to Camp David for mental rest and put Pence in charge.

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      1. John Cheyney

        There were initially but they all got fired or walked. That’s how we get left with people like Betsy DeVos on the cabinet.

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        1. Bruce Wing

          Please, please tell me why you don't like DeVos!

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          1. John Cheyney

            Because she doesn’t do anything at all for her department. When I see her on TV she looks like she forgot to do last night’s readings and she is praying the professor doesn’t call on her.

            I don’t know if she still does, but at one point she was getting security from the US Marshal’s Service because she was ‘under threat.’ Wrap your head around that.

            The reality is not all cabinet departments are equal. If you are one of the minor Secretaries you have to be passionate enough to get in front of your boss and make him/her listen. That’s what leaders do. I might or might not agree with her plans if she actually had any.

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          2. Melissa

            FWIW, the NYT Daily podcast a few days ago covered the financiers who were backing the "Liberate" protests. DeVos family was included in their number. Add that reason into the mix.

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            Pat Riot

            For what it's worth, I don't know anything about her actions one way or another. She's been invisible as far as I'm concerned. She certainly hasn't been on the mainstream news like other cabinet members.

            Ed Secretaries are always somewhat neutered to begin with since 95% of the money schools get is not Federal.

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          Ray Salemi

          All the best people...

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          cheerio

          She and Mnuchin (and of course Mrs. McConnell) are like some of the last OG's

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      2. BillZ

        At this point, there is rarely a briefing the goes by where, by the end of it, Trump doesn't deserve a full James-Downey-in-Billy-Madison-level reality check.

        The NYTimes had a piece yesterday that noted Trump doesn't even attend the actual task force meetings. There is no multidimensional chess to our daily national embarrassment: Trump just shows up for the press briefings without the benefit of having sat through the task force meetings, reviews and annotates his prepared remarks, hurries through them in a monotone, disinterested way, and then muses on topics about which he is completely ignorant while sparring with reports for two hours.

        This spectacle is frustrating to everyone watching it at home. I can't imagine how frustrating it is for members of the task force who are actually working hard every day and know what they are talking about. At any given moment, the President of the United States is the least knowledgeable and capable person in his administration to actually undertake the briefing, but the task force and the nation are held hostage to his narcissism.

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        1. Dave D.

          Exactly. If Trump had more sense than ego he would let task force members do almost all the briefings. They would be shorter, and we wouldn't be subject to all the absurd Trump musings and the equally absurd and unprofessional preening of our press corps trying to become lefty Twitter heros.

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          cheerio

          I just don't see how the United States recovers from this horrorshow. National credibility is for all practical purposes, lost.

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          Ray Salemi

          I am optimistic that this is hurting his re-election chances.

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          1. BillZ

            Yes--beyond the polls that Sarah cites, we can see that Drudge has turned the corner on Trump in a major way, which will undoubtedly percolate through to many of Trump's supporters. Anecdotally, I also know one formerly-avid Trump supporter (a senior and a public school teacher, as it happens) who is majorly turned off by the press briefings and the push by many republicans to sacrifice seniors (like her) to reopen the economy.

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    JDW

    I've always said that to win Biden just needs to stay invisible. A referendum on Trump is a no vote. These tv appearances every day by Trump are killing him. And I suspect they are watched by old people far more than other groups. If Trump can't hold the old, he can't win. Biden just needs to not be scary.

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    1. Dave D.

      This has been a perfect storm for Biden, if only a perfect storm in the wrong direction for everyone else. The more Biden is exposed to the public the worse he will do. That's why I wouldn't do any premature celebrations on the D side. This will be the weirdest election of my lifetime. The debates will be surreal. Everyone in the world will be asking, can't the US figure out how to do better than this?

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      Bob W

      I caught a few episodes of Biden;s Podcast series- I think they a re pretty good. Wonder if we might see the return of long form/substantive discussions instead of attack ads, campaign rallies, and viral memes.

      The interview he did with Jon Meachum was especially good. https://joebiden.com/heres-the-deal/

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        cheerio

        Okay then. I have been neglecting electoral politics since we have been on lockdown for the Covid. I am going to have do some YouTube binging.

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    3. John Cheyney

      Maybe not invisible, but in the background. Biden’s mouth is not always his best friend. I completely agree he needs to turn this into a referendum on Trump, both as a leader and as a person. Given how close the last election was, even with the worst single candidate the Democrats could have come up with, it doesn’t take much of a swing for Biden to win.

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        JohnF

        Biden 2020: Because He Can't Possibly Be Any Worse!

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      2. Melissa

        I'm with you on the first point, but given that he's running up against the guy who today suggested injecting Clorox to cure COVID, the bar has been set very, very low. If President Covfefe were of sharper mental faculties, it might be relevant but at the present situation, a bag gravel has more wit and cunning then the person who currently occupies the office.

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          Idontdocute

          At least he may have opened up the market in sales of used tanning beds for those who wish to make the attempt on the ultraviolet cure. I wonder if some of the flag waving weapon touting protesters are going to start showing up sporting that extra crispy look?

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