Trump Is About to Wreck His Legacy

Something to be thankful for on Thanksgiving.

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Former President Donald Trump. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images.)

Are your hands still singed after handling yesterday’s hot take?

Sorry for that. In my defense, though, speculating that Trump might be hurt rather than helped by a crowded 2024 primary field is only marginally hotter than my friends at National Review pleading with Republican hopefuls to clear the field for a Trump-DeSantis showdown.

That’s the right strategy if you’re a conservative whose goal is to maximize the GOP’s chances of nominating a superior candidate, but it’s eye-roll material if you’re an ambitious Republican politician who looks in the mirror and sees a president staring back. That ambition won’t yield to matters as trivial as basic electoral reality and civic duty. Inevitably, you’ll talk yourself into believing that chasing your dream is a necessary and even altruistic step toward Trump’s political demise.

Why, you might turn out to be the Trump-slayer prophesied to end the reign of darkness. Or you could prevail as a consensus compromise choice after primary voters crumble into bitter Trumpist and non-Trumpist factions. Either way, depriving GOP voters of your candidacy might mean the difference between Republican victory in 2024 and defeat.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ralph S

    Thanks for the speculations. Best scenario, he is arrested with criminal charges for election tampering, intimidating witnesses, possession of documents he had no right to, and is then legally disqualified from running. My suspicion is that he has dirt on many powerful people in and out of the political scene, like from Epstein flights and carousing. We'll still have drama and headlines. He a vengeful spiteful sort of guy that will not go down without a huge destructive tantrum.

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    Abridge683

    Trump's choice of dinner companions is certainly not doing him a lot of good. Nothing like white nationalists and anti-semites being welcomed at Mara Largo to demonstrate Trump's lack of decency.

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  3. Mary Stine

    Just now got around to reading this latest by Mr. Catoggio and the comments.
    Why is no one considering a scenario where Liz Cheney runs as an independent?
    We can all bunt around the scenarios, but the reality is that as long as Trump is still living he'll be a
    festering mound of malevolence that is just barely restrainable.
    Just count the number of advisors, cabinet members, generals and attorneys he hired and fired.
    The number of souls willing to sign up to restrain the mad king is dwindling, rapidly, while the number of people wanting to imitate his dark bravado is growing.
    Only Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and a few others among Republican politicians have had the steel to point out the danger of Trumpism to our democracy, as well as to the Republican party.
    That may be more important to a lot of voters than polling would indicate.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Ben Connelly

      She has said publicly that she won’t. But she still could.

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    David Burke

    “But it’ll take more than merely attempting to end American democracy to shake the faith of that other 48 percent. To lose them, Trump will need to do something really bad—like harming the Republican Party’s chances of winning power.”

    ay there's the rub…

    It’s the power. The elected Republican officials and the 70%(or whatever)of the Republican voters that support trump have proven that character and a moral compass matters nothing to them. There have been beyond countless occasions this odious excuse of a man should have been kicked to the curb. Reprehensible behavior on a daily basis for his entire life - let alone since 2015. The party has been outed for what it is.

    OK to grab the P*ssy, but by all means, keep the power.

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  5. Avatar photo
    JohnD

    Nick -thanks, very thoughtful. At heart I am an optimist, and (in spite of the recent evidence to the contrary) I do largely trust the American electorate. IMO Trump won in 2016 because his opponent was a remarkably bad candidate. He also won because the American voting public (correctly I believe) assumed that the guardrails in place would constrain Trump and keep him more in a safe zone. This is what we got from 2017-2019. Thereafter, with COVID and the 2020 election, we got to see more of the unconstrained Trump, and it did not play well. I think #2 is the most likely outcome. The Trump show is getting stale, even for some of his biggest supporters. I can’t see him getting the nomination for 2024, and making it uncomfortable for the one who does get it.

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    Theirnscott

    I'm pretty sure number 3 is the most likely. Number 1 is next. The GOP and Republic will survive if it's number 2 or number 1.

    We should all work to make sure number 4 doesn't happen. I believe the love of freedom will allow us to overcome the devastation he would wreak but it will be painful.

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  7. Mirabelle Schnocklevan

    I'm going to pick Trump losing the nomination and sabotaging the GOP in his anger with them. Now, it is entirely possible that the Republican media and leadership did such a good job inculcating false messages into the Republicans voters that they will pick Trump as their nominee. And then everyone can write in Ron DeSantis instead.

    But Trump burning it all down is what I am expecting to see. He really does have a lot of legal jeopardy, though. He may be doing this from a very weakened position. And every time Trump weakens, Ron strengthens with the right-leaning voters. I am not of the opinion that Trump is as strong as some people think. I think he is going to fade fast. But we'll see how well the programming was with the voters.

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  8. Jim S

    You know I’m far from an expert on GOP voters but as far as the general election goes I think there are a lot of baked in assumptions in this analysis.

    Nick seems to view DeSantis as some kind of mainstream establishment Republican with wide appeal. He seems oblivious to the fact that to large swaths of the electorate he is just Trump 2.0, another bully with zero core principles ready take his turn at being the new Republican Caesar.

    This is by far the most discouraging thing I have discovered during my time at Dispatch. That even Republicans who are disgusted with Trump seem eager to embrace the core principles of Trumpism.

    For what it as worth, as a Democrat I also relish a showdown between Trump and DeSantis. Let them work hard to earn the title of biggest bully and watch the GOP negatives go through the roof with moderate suburban voters and Independents. Looks like a win-win from my perspective.

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    1. RGS

      With my limited knowledge based on national media coverage, prior to the 2022 election I would have agreed with you about DeSantis. But the guy won re-election by 15 points. I don't care how rightward drifting (some) Hispanics have lately become. That's an incredible percentage in what has traditionally been a swing state. There was COVID and a huge hurricane to deal with, both of which have been the downfall of previously successful politicians. He must have done some things right that the middle-of-the-roaders among them ignored his more Trumpy tendencies.

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      Rdoconnell

      DeSantis is not Trump 2.0. This assumption makes you an unserious political observer.

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      Melissa

      As a Republican, I view DeSantis as an exceptional governor. The people of Florida, Democrat and Republican, approved of his policies and re-elected him with large majorities. I do not think Florida feels he is a “bully”.

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  9. Charvondersaar56

    Good analysis - but yeah, no chance the Trumpster will graciously and honorably depart presidential politics, so I'm hoping for Option #3 but pessimistically predicting #4.

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    Melissa

    I am so grateful you have moved to The Dispatch, Nick! I loved your writing at Hot Air, but did not want to subscribe bc Hot Air was too much for me. Our family of conservatives agree we will not vote if Trump is the nominee. If we loose again in 2024 and are finally rid of Trump, so be it.

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    1. Nathan Casebolt

      I think a lot of folks are where y'all are. I have friends/family who voted for Trump twice and will never vote for him again. And as a conservative who voted against him twice , let me say — welcome! Come on in, the water's cold and uncomfortable, but you get used to it.

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