Failure to Launch?

Republican candidates for 2024 struggle to respond to Trump’s indictment.

By
35
Former President Donald Trump waves after delivering remarks at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Bedminster, New Jersey, on June 13, 2023. Trump appeared in court in Miami for an arraignment regarding 37 federal charges, including violations of the Espionage Act, making false statements, and conspiracy regarding his mishandling of classified material after leaving office. (Photo by Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images)

If you had “debating whether they would pardon their party’s presidential frontrunner” on your 2024 GOP nomination bingo card, congratulations!

We’re only a month or so into the contest in earnest and Republicans are having one helluva time getting underway. Former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges for filching state secrets and then lying to investigators once he was caught, which one might think would be clarifying for voters looking for the best candidate to get back into the White House. But, so far at least, the party seems paralyzed. Is it likely to stay that way?

Let’s start with an essential caveat on the value of polling at this point in a presidential cycle and a sense of where we are now.

We’re about two months from the first scheduled debate, which is to say that we are still in what our friends in the business world would call the “soft launch” of the contest. Or in politics, we might better say the “Giuliani-Jeb phase,” in honor of the commanding summertime leads of the ill-fated frontrunners of 2007 and 2015.

This content is available exclusively to Dispatch members
Try a membership for full access to every newsletter and all of The Dispatch. Support quality, fact-based journalism.
Start Your Free Trial
Already a paid member? Sign In
35
By
Comments (35)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Russell J

    Gotta love anyone who dives into the pool head-first on defending a bathroom as a good document storage area. Wow.

    Collapse
  2. Bigdonmck

    This may be a bit off topic. We have a minimum age requirement in order to run for prez. A prez candidate certainly needs seasoning. Makes sense. I'm in agreement.
    Why don't we have a maximum age not to be exceeded in order to run for prez? The airlines have a maximum age for their pilots for consumer safety. What job in America is more important for consumer safety than Prez? Sure, some folks could ably serve at advanced age. But let's take that issue off the table. I'm just spitballin' here. A max age makes sense, IMHO.
    God, save the Queen!

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Azlefty

      When the framers wrote the constitution, what we think of as old age to the point of senility might not have been a thing. Male life expectancy was around 40.

      Collapse
      1. Bigdonmck

        Excellent point. Good post and have a great weekend.

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Azlefty

          That said, in the last few years, the Constitution seems to have come up a little short in this regard and in need of some refreshment.

          Collapse
  3. Avatar photo
    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    "It takes what seems to be a lifetime to get a nominating race underway, but then it’s over in a blink. Be careful of straight-line projections." From your keyboard, Mr. Stirewalt, to Mr. Catoggio's tortured eyes.

    Re this: "A Belgian man has explained why he faked his own death and turned up to his ‘funeral’ in a helicopter, to the shock of his loved ones": If we had the flying cars we were promised in The Jetsons, no one would have been nearly as shocked. Until then, a helicopter will remain the prop of choice for performing deus ex machina.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Ben Connelly

      Yeah I’ve been thinking something similar regarding Catoggio and Stirewalt. I’m with Chris.

      Collapse
  4. Avatar photo
    Mattjabour

    The single fundamental question every presidential candidate needs to answer is, "why should we elect you and not the frontrunner?" If a candidate can't answer that, they have literally no reason to even be in the race.

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    JohnM.

    Always a fun and interesting read, Chris. Thank you.
    I especially appreciated the highlighting of the piece about Arnold's Country Kitchen in Nashville. What a great story!

    Collapse
  6. Jaybrown

    "It takes what seems to be a lifetime to get a nominating race underway, but then it’s over in a blink."

    I rather think it will be tedious, boring, endlessly "analyzed," and predictable.

    Collapse
  7. Djconner

    “Giuliani-Jeb phase"
    I wish more commentators would ponder this as opposed to concluding that the Old Orange One is fated to win and wreak havoc on the land, and that the only hope is for Sir Ron DeSantis to draw the Sword of Idiotic Populism from the stone. (Because any other potential candidates have obviously shown themselves to be no-hopers by not having 20% of the vote before Memorial Day.)

    Collapse
  8. Mazzz

    Re: Polling Roulette

    Would someone be willing to give me a few examples of what it means to be "very conservative or conservative on social issues"? Thanks!

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      JohnM.

      You're a smart fellow, Mazzz. I think you already have a clue. The folks who responded to that poll certainly seem to.

      Collapse
      1. Mazzz

        Thanks, but the clue I have doesn't seem to align with the idea of passing laws, which is usually what we talk about when we talk conservative vs. liberal. Maybe that's a better question for me to ask:

        As someone who is "very conservative or conservative on social issues," what laws would you like to see passed or rescinded?

        Collapse
        1. Russell J

          I think the conservative-liberal spectrum has lost a lot of meaning and polls trying to get people to self-identify in this respect aren’t super useful. In the “conservative” movement I signed up for, we often opposed new laws as strategy more so than wanting more of them. The rule was if there is an uncertainty over whether a law turns out well, side with liberty. For rescinding there are many choices. Popular election of Senators, Obamacare, re-work Social Security, Simplify the tax code, get rid of tariffs, etc.

          Collapse
          1. Mazzz

            None of those things seem to qualify as "social issues" though. Any changes in that arena that you'd like to see?

            Collapse
          2. Hikingguy

            Funny how the Republicans all swore to repeal the Affordable care Act and replace it with something cheaper and better. And good luck getting back to state legislatures picking Senators. Ain't gonna happen. Reps didn't care much about the tax code except to give their corporate donors huge tax cuts.

            Collapse
        2. Marc Whipple

          I think you raise great questions. I suspect self-identification has huge variances.

          Anecdotally, my 20 something daughter self-identifies as conservative. Yet, she is fiercely pro-choice on abortion, and strongly supports marijuana legalization. She also protested police abuse in summer 2020 after the George Floyd killing. She voted for Gary Johnson in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

          However, she identifies as conservative because she believes there are two genders, and that transgender women should not be able to compete with biological women in sports. She also opposes affirmative action and is turned off by progressive's focus on "white privilege." She would likely vote for most Repulicans over Kamala Harris (she really dislikes Harris).

          Collapse
          1. Mazzz

            Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

            "she believes there are two genders"

            That is certainly a popular position, but I don't see much in the way of legislation coming out of that stance. Does it really matter in a practical way how many genders anyone believes there are?

            "transgender women should not be able to compete with biological women in sports"

            Again, this is the majority position certainly, but we're not exactly talking about super important stuff here. I'm sure this will sort itself out before anyone is permanently scarred.

            "She also opposes affirmative action and is turned off by progressive's focus on "white privilege.""

            I'd be interested in finding out how much she knows about the history of race in America, because it seems to me that many people (including David French) who learn that history well often shift their opinions.

            "she really dislikes Harris"

            Any particular reasons, or just a general negative feeling?

            Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      Dennis

      I was wondering the same thing. Though, FWIW, I was vaguely pleased to see my own age cohort (well, -20 years) had retreated a bit, whatever social issues they have in mind.

      Collapse
      1. Mazzz

        If I had to make a purely random guess, I'd say they have grandchildren who perhaps don't align with traditional norms.

        Collapse
  9. Avatar photo
    Earl King

    Thanks for the response.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      PWLaw

      Thanks for the question. I have been wondering the same thing.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Earl King

        Yeah but not a satisfying answer....I wish it were.

        Collapse
    2. LucyTrice

      Great question and observations Earl!

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Marty

        Ditto!

        Collapse
      2. Avatar photo
        Earl King

        How kind of you. Thank you and have a great weekend.

        Collapse
        1. LucyTrice

          You too!

          Collapse