Joe Biden Confronts a Weakened Coalition

South Carolina may be less dramatic this time for the incumbent, but it will still matter.

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President Joe Biden greets staff and patrons at Regal Lounge, a men's barbershop and spa, in Columbia, South Carolina, on January 27, 2024. (Photo by KENT NISHIMURA/AFP via Getty Images)

Today, Joe Biden is getting what he asked for, but maybe not what he hoped.

The president took the extraordinary step of pushing his party to blow up its long-standing primary calendar that favored very white northern states, Iowa (90 percent white) and New Hampshire (93 percent white), over states with significant minority populations like Nevada (30 percent Hispanic) and Michigan (14 percent black).

But Biden starts his official progress to the nomination right where he wanted to be, with today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina (26 percent black). Biden couched his proposal in the language of racial inclusion, saying that Democrats had to “ensure that voters of color have a voice in choosing our nominee.” 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Julie from Texas

    As a through-and-through Texan, I say, "Go, Colin Allred!" The only way a Dem has any chance defeating Ted Cruz (whose popularity is not as great as he'd lead you to believe) is if it's a moderate, and Allred meets that standard in a way his opponent definitely doesn't. And good gravy, am I ready to send Ted home! Mind you, I've voted for plenty of Republicans, but I draw the line at grifters like him.

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    1. GenZConservative

      I phone banked for him in the '16 primary and it's sad to see where he's sunk to over the last two cycles.

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  2. Hikingguy

    Biden won 96.2 % in S Carolina. No drama at all.

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      Citizen60

      Turnout was less than 2020, which is worrisome.

      Phillips and Williamson look like egotistical idiots staying in the race

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      1. Sai Ayila

        It's a strategic move from democrats. Around 400k democrats didn't vote in the primary because some of those are planning to vote for Haley in republican primary according bill kristol. There were mailers which were sent to vote for Haley and reduce Trump's victory margin and weaken him in general election as u all know how he loses his mind if loses or comes close to losing It's win win for both Biden and Haley.

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  3. Emma

    I dont see any drama here. It's still a matter of voting against trump, not FOR biden.

    It will be this way for many on the right as well.

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    Davidlatkinson

    The Democrat coalition reminds me of the old saw, "You can't have your cake and eat it, too," and perhaps for Joe Biden, "cake" should be substituted for ice cream. On the one hand, there are those pesky Muslim voters in Michigan who are pro-Palestinian (and, of course, anti-Israel). On the other hand, there's that equally pesky LGBTQ+ crowd (or as Dave Chappelle calls them, the "Alphabet People"), who have as much in common with the Muslim world as Elon Musk has with Engelbert Humperdinck. Then there are the blacks who, despite the old cable series Six Feet Under's best attempts, really aren't into homosexuality as much as whites (it seems like only yesterday when President Obama was against gay marriage). No matter who Joe Biden is favoring in the coalition, he is disfavoring someone else. That would be a hard-enough task for a politician in their prime, much less someone who is in their eighties.

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    1. PROMETHEUS

      This is nothing new; the left has always been like that.

      We are not an organized party. We are Democrats.

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  5. Iyeates

    I am not sure what typical D voters thought processes might be when they declare that their disappointments with some aspect of the Biden administration will result in them sitting on their hands and not voting or, bizarrely, deciding to vote for the R nominee instead. I am doubtful that R policies are going to be more congenial to them long term than, perhaps, flawed D policies and implementation of same at present. The close to certain R nominee, Trump, is likely to be supportive of Israel just as much as the D incumbent is. Or, do they believe that Trump will throw Israel under the bus for them notwithstanding his support for Netanyahu?

    The American system's essence is that to get anything done everyone has to put a little water into their wine. Expecting otherwise is crazy. I concede that the current behavior of the H of Reps and the Senate R's are at odds with this observation, but I presume the fever will break once the election is done and a new Senate and a new H of Reps is in place. The likelihood to any new structure resulting in the potential for unfettered implementation of either party's extreme agendas is vanishingly small. By design I might add.

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    Dusty

    The middle part that reported Moreno in first place in Ohio (and Dolan in third), immediately followed by reports of Rosendale’s pending Senate announcement in Montana, made me want to proverbially throw a shoe at the TV.

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    Ms. SSM

    I don’t really see what a decline in turnout would say. There isn’t a competitive primary. I’m surprised anyone bothers to turn out in primaries like this. Are people even aware someone is running against Biden in the primary? I’m not planning to vote in the TN primary at all and I’m certain to vote in the general. There just isn’t much reason to go to the polls this primary season for a Dem.


    That said Biden and Dems in general have a serious engagement problem with young black voters. Some of my children are quite fired up about the Israel Gaza issue and say they won’t vote for genocide. Some have economy complaints. And most are only vaguely knowledgeable about politics in general. I correct most TikTok misinformation but I’m a news junkie. The typical young 20ish is minimally paying attention in my experience.

    On the Dems plus side they are pretty fired up about abortion as an issue thankfully (even more so since giving me grandchildren before my time). So I may be able to drag them to the polls to pull the Dem lever eventually. But it’s definitely going to be harder than it was in 2020.

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      Citizen60

      Remind them the next President May get 1 or 2 SCOTUS picks—Alioto and Thomas are old

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    Greg Williams

    In the 2016 campaign all I saw on the news was Trump. Excerpts from every speech were shown, with MSM talking heads trying to discredit him, largely by way of petty ridicule or elitist dismissal. Back then he was flamboyant, onery, often crude but purveyed a God, country and freedom theme that attracted a large demographic of people who felt ignored and disenfranchised. I believe it helped him get elected. I also believe the media felt used.

    This time he is dark, malevolent, vindictive and, in many cases, downright frightening. But now his rants rarely get covered, and the continuous threat to democracy themes of the MSM lack the ready proof that he is continuously providing every time he stands up in front of a crowd. There seems to be a boycott, even to include ostracizing major networks who interview him.

    I hope the MSM gets over their insulted egos from 2016 in time to prevent doing the same thing they did back then. Nothing would be so effective in changing minds about Trump as letting people who are not filling his venues hear what he is actually saying now.

    Greg Williams
    https://christiansoldier21.substack.com/

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    Earl King

    All of us here have doubts about Biden and his coalition. He has been a bad president in many eyes. Will economic atmosphere change enough in 9 mos to save his Presidency or will another year of chaos at the border infect mortal wounds?

    Does whatever happen to Trump change Biden’s trajectory at all. Does Trump have any effect on Biden or are Biden’s future solely in his own hands?

    According to polls, nothing in Trump judicial problems have any affect on the bases support. Odd because you’d think unless GOP voters have no daughters or are themselves rapists you’d a court settlement that Trump raped a women would mean something. I am told the GOP doesn’t believe it and thinks it’s political. Pretty much how they feel about all his legal troubles.

    So what to make of Nikki Haley’s hail marry argument that Trump cannot win? On the merits it is what I believe. I can’t think of too many voting groups he has added vs. what he has lost. However I don’t believe it will work......if white voters, especially women voters turn and look away at a rapist.....that fact he’ll lose is probably piffle.... Joe Biden’s biggest issue has nothing to do with Trump or who or what he is. Biden’s issue is he is aging badly in front of our eyes and it is becoming apparently he cannot really campaign. He cannot make an argument that resonates when it coming from an obviously diminished man. Age is his issue.

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    EricRemcon@gmail

    “Almost all of the people who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 would have just as readily voted for another Republican candidate. But they would rather gamble on a person of weak character than let the other side win.”

    Exactly, Chris!

    I have been saying this on a loop since the Nov. 2016 disaster. I blame the ‘R team’ voters much more than his cult members. They were afraid of D rule in 2020 and got it anyway. That D fear will be the biggest reason why he will get another 70+ million votes this November.

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      Dennis

      Are you saying that there can be no credible fear of D (Biden, to be accurate) rule, such that a non-cult Trump voter cannot be awarded asylum? As an R who has passed on voting for a POTUS in the last two elections, I may be reaching a tipping point with Biden/Harris—despite the risk of being labeled a cultist or a cynic or otherwise being blamed.

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        EricRemcon@gmail

        IMO, the only way to get rid of him is for the ‘normal’ R voters to, in-mass, sit it out or write-in a name, his 30% cult has no power without the D fearing tag-alongs. If that would have occurred in 2020, we would not be talking about him anymore (and Jan6 would have never happened). Biden’s term has been bad and a Harris term would be worse, but returning him to the WH would be another big step in our demise. He would not ‘end democracy’ (he is not that smart or self-controlled) but it would be bolstering the example for other want-to-be populist demagogues (that would no doubt be more competent) and further divide our country (look what is already going on with the TX independence talk).

        As far as asylum. Everyone must live with their own choices, there is no voter asylum granting power. I just know that I could never forgive myself for casting a vote for the most unqualified candidate in history, especially after Jan6. I despised Hillary in 2016 and hate the dynasty thing (i.e., Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. I was also against Jeb for that reason), but I never even considered pulling that lever in 2016 (to show my lesser of evils calculation back then, I am now embarrassed to admit that Rubio was my pick).

        The fact that it is even possible for him to run for, let alone win, the GOP nomination again shows that the country has a lot of work to do that will probably take multiple WH terms to accomplish (if we have not bankrupted ourselves by then). We are going crazy. We should change the flag from stars and stripes over to a picture of that meme with the dog sitting in a burning house saying “This is fine”. Will we ever put down the partisan-colored hammers and stop beating each other long enough to realize – No, it is not? I don't know.

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          Dennis

          An honest answer. I guess I was saying that riding the horns of this lesser-of-two-evils dilemma has become mighty uncomfortable; and I was probably hoping that at 85 I’d get one more shot (after 2012, that is) at voting for a POTUS. But the choices being what they are, probably not.

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            EricRemcon@gmail

            I’m a gen-Xer and I am also hoping to get a chance to vote FOR a major party candidate in my time left.

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