We’ve got a lot of politics already heating up with two gubernatorial races in less than a year—Virginia and New Jersey. Plus we could have federal elections to fill vacancies left by Biden cabinet appointees. But all of that seems like a distant future compared to what is happening ahead of January 5th.
…Two senate seats, both alike in dignity, In fair Georgia, where we lay our scene, From ancient grudge break to new mutiny, Where negative partisanship makes negative campaigning unclean….
And it is Shakespearean indeed—at least in the drama surrounding whatever it is the Republican Party is doing to itself by both claiming the November election was entirely rigged and also telling people to go vote again in a few weeks.
And so who better to turn to this week than Doug Heye, former communications director for the Republican National Committee. Doug is one of those people you can turn to for professional advice, sure, but he is also someone you can meet up with for a beer just because you need to know someone is in your corner when the chips are down. You can also catch him on CNN just about any day of the week where he will no doubt be spouting some political wisdom about these Georgia races.
Sarah: Ok, first, just from a campaign strategy level, how do you wrap your head around a 9-week race as opposed to a years long presidential run through primaries and a general?
Doug: In a typical Georgia campaign, you can have the attitude of “I don’t have to outrun the alligator, I have to outrun you.” Loeffler vs Collins in the general election is a good example of that. Now that there is a one-on-one runoff, you have a sharper focus on who your opponent is and your messaging changes with that.
Sarah: What should we be thinking about turnout given what happened in November? Will the massive turnout wave continue, who is going to stay home, who goes in with the advantage?
Doug: I just don’t think we know what turnout will be. Donald Trump was one heck of a turnout motivator, for Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Trump always sort of resembled a professional wrestler to me—some people show up to cheer, some to boo. But they show up.
Runoffs are low turnout as a rule. There’s typically only one race on the ballot. This time there are two, but for the same office. So voters have to be specifically interested in the Senate. That’s a smaller universe of voters than for presidential, federal, state and local races all on the ballot. Given the money and interest in Georgia, it may be a super high turnout for a runoff, even historically so, but nothing like what we saw in November. Back in the day, the Omni in Atlanta would sell out for Ric Flair vs Dusty Rhodes. But Jim Brunzell vs Sam Houston? Not so much.
One BIG problem for the GOP—Republicans are trying to suppress their own vote with these claims of fraud, or outright telling people to stay home. It’s a bit like Cleavon Little pulling a gun on himself in Blazing Saddles. And a logical conclusion to the Trump presidency. Trump lost so his acolytes may try to take the Senate down with him. It’s the natural order of things.
I’m also curious to see what happens to turnout in 2024 if Trump is not on the ballot. My guess is turnout would be higher than 2016, given all the new voters, but less than 2020 because it shouldn’t inspire the same passions. But who knows!
Sarah: Can you explain a little what all the different pieces of the campaign puzzle are doing in a special election situation like this? NRSC, RNC, the campaigns, etc.?
Doug: I volunteered on the Coverdell runoff for a week or so; that is the extent of my runoff experience. But for the NRSC, this is mission number one. They are focused on the race, helping drive the turnout, targeted ads (independent expenditures still happening), etc. There’s a new crew coming in, but this is their number one priority. For the RNC, it’s hard to say. Are they focused on this, or driving the false narrative that Trump didn’t win, etc.? It’s really hard to say. They’re clearly raising money, but just as clearly, that money is not necessarily for the runoff. Meanwhile, people are looking for the exits, so that may affect things. Though the dichotomy of “campaigns are not won in DC” and “look how our DC organization won the race” will exist for the RNC as it does for every other party committee and outside group.
Sarah: What about the money. The 2014 Georgia senate race cost a total of $75 million. The gubernatorial race between Kemp and Abrams was a record $100 million. This is shaping up to be well over $300 million. What are good uses for that much money with so little time? Any bad uses or where the marginal returns are just—well—diminishing more than usual?
Doug: There is definitely a question of diminishing returns. And, as we saw with so many losing campaigns with money left in the bank, we’ve gotten to an oversaturation where you just can’t spend it all.
Sarah: Any chance these races won’t rise or fall together? In other words, could anything cause a split Purdue/Warnock result?
Doug: The natural assumption would be that they rise and fall together—and the lay of the land in Georgia, especially during a runoff, should favor both Republicans. Keep in mind, the last Georgia Democrat elected to the Senate was the conservative Zell Miller, who eventually switched parties. But here’s why it’s hard to make a firm call this far out: The ads hitting Warnock on his rhetoric are tough and should sink him. But I would bet African American turnout will be high. Will that be enough?
Sarah: How much would you nationalize this race if you were running it? Would you make it all about Chuck Schumer or all about Georgia?
Doug: The single best argument the Republicans have is that they would be a check and balance on the incoming Biden Administration. Every policy announcement, personnel announcement—John Kerry!—or interview should give both Loeffler and Purdue an opportunity to make that case. Unfortunately, they’re not allowed to admit the reality that Biden won, so their best arrow remains in their quiver. Schumer and Senate Democrats—especially Sanders and Warren—can work, but that’s argument number two.
The timeline in Georgia is shorter, and that money will be spent on TV (hello football games), digital and voter targeting and turnout. Will money be wasted? Absolutely. But that’s just a reality of where you have campaigns with more money than they know what to do with. Now, in the past that has meant spending more and more on the same things. The smarter campaigns invest that money to do the things they previously did not have the budget for, not just to place more ads in the same tv shows.
Sarah: Fun fact about Doug: You have been on a reality TV show—for a date with Sarah Silverman. Not sure how to describe it. But regardless, what is your go-to date plan during these COVID times?
Doug: Now that outdoor dining and doing things in large groups is out, it’s a perfect opportunity to make a nice quiet dinner without having it too obvious or too much. And who knew that offering her hand sanitizer upon arrival would be a sign of affection!
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