The Sweep: Politics in a Post-Roe America

What to make of polls that show the Dobbs decision will help Democrats.

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Axios was out this week with a new round of stories about why Democrats are confident that the abortion issue will help them this fall, noting that “Democrats see it as a mobilizing issue for suburban women in swing House districts across the country.”  

Two polls released in the past 24 hours give Democrats hope the issue will move voters.

• A CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,591 adults found 50% of Democrats were more likely to vote based on the Roe ruling, while only 20% of Republicans said the same.

• In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll out this morning (941 adults), 78% of Democrats said the court’s decision makes them more likely to vote this fall — 24 points higher than Republicans.

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Comments (37)
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  1. Kirk Bennett

    This makes sense. The Hispanic and Asian communities want access to good schools and safe neighborhoods. The modern Democratic Party has lost touch with their historical base.

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    Mike CS

    What do we make of polls when some people will never answer a non-contact number that shows up on their cell phone? I know I do not. I do think, though, that, those who are displeased with overturning Roe will be more motivated in promoting their cause that those pleased with the outcome. Whether that translates into more displeased than pleased voters turning out remains to be seen and analyzed by the bunch at TD and NR. I wonder,too, how much Trump Bluster and brag will affect both sides? After all, he did nominate three judges— presumably recommended by The Federalist Society— who are now justices who were in the majority. Oh, One last multi-part question/comment for Sarah. I am not a lawyer geek, but did scan through the whole thing and noticed that the majority used the meaning of stare decisis differently than the dissenters and the majority referred to the fetus differently than the dissenters: No precedent vs. precedent, and human vs. potential life. What say you? When does life begin? I can wait until the next AO for an explanation.

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  3. Mary Stine

    The biggest issue dividing Americans, abortion, has always been used as a flamethrower to force more voters to the polls. Sadly, the flamethrowing has also torched all nuance, complex ancillary issues and common ground. Anytime a moderate offers even a tiptoe into any of those the far right or far left send in their best firebreathing dragon to singe everything again.
    While I appreciate the brilliant legal dialogue Sarah and David offer on this, what I'd really like to hear is a discussion on the real common ground on abortion that Sarah hints at here.
    Some common ground areas have always been there: no woman should be forced into an abortion for example.

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    David M

    Thanks Sarah and Audrey.

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  5. Eric Weisberg

    Okay, Sarah, but what about the converse? Will Dobbs cause single-issue conservative voters to stay home?

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    The Stray Goose

    I know one Yellow Dog who said that the only reason she voted for the D's is because of Roe. But if they're can't even protect abortion, what's the point in continuing to vote for them. They're wrong on literally every other topic. It seems that there are many Democrats who don't understand just how much damage something like 'transgender rights' (and other 'woke' topics) is doing to their party. More and more women are becoming disgusted with them.

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    1. Jeremy

      Agree. I registered Dem in 2016 bc I wanted nothing to do with Trump, and since then I have legitimately moved left on some policy issues, but god I get sick of woke identity politics.

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    2. Seth

      Do you follow Josh Barro? He writes the "Very Serious" substack, and does an accompanying podcast. I've enjoyed his practical left-of-center perspective, and (probably unrealistic) hope that the Ds can pivot to a practical moderate platform that could capture a huge portion of people who are disgusted with the populist Trump-MAGA spiral of the Republican party, but are also turned off by the obsession with the extreme left fringe issues capturing the party messaging.

      Until we can structurally reform the incentives (partisan primaries being a huge one, and the need for anger-driven small donors being among others), I'm afraid the extremes of both sides are going to be driving the busses, with the majority of the country wondering if walking is starting to look better than either...

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    Michael Dan Martin

    As for the electoral shift among Latinos and Asians, like the French lady marooned on a desert isle with five men, I understand the situation but I don't see the problem.

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  8. Pogo

    I do tend to wonder whether, despite Dobbs perhaps having limited effects nationally, it'll convince people to start paying closer attention and participating more in their local elections. Historically, these have attracted less attention and had lower turnout rates than the contentious national races, but now that state legislatures, governors, state supreme court judges, etc are going to be a key battleground in the new era of abortion fights, hopefully there'll be more engagement. (I don't see this as heralding some overall trend in de-nationalization of the political environment though).

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  9. Kmsinatra

    This could be dumb but this is my reason for Dobbs not changing votes much:
    No matter how pro choice you are, you probably won't vote on something you never anticipate getting.

    I'm pro choice. I would probably donate to planned parenthood before changing my vote from conservative to D solely for abortion issue (insurrection is another matter). I just don't think the pro choice faction is a single issue vote because no one goes through life planning on needing an abortion

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    1. Kier McAlpine

      True. But this will de-escalate the anti-woke punditry momentum. The GOP has been gaining traction by portraying the left as anti-freedom. This turn of events pours cold water on that. This will mark a return to the GOP I grew up with, the GOP that wants the government to get involved in peoples' lives and legislate sexual morality.

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      Pat @ Tavi Hall

      The danger for Republicans on abortion is a longer term one. Poorly written laws will have negative results. The worst for Republicans won't be from women seeking abortions, but women joyful at pregnancy who have something to wrong and treatment was slowed or stimed to bad results. It will take time for the electorate to know someone but once that happens the issue won't be easily fixed by attack ads.

      I don't understand why big national pro life groups didn't have model legislstion ready to roll out.

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        Kmregan7

        For the same reason they weren't working on legislation with those who are pro-choice in order to reduce abortions for the last 50 years.

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    3. Seth

      That's a logical perspective. I would think some data exists on this (but of course, as Sarah would point out, it's probably horribly unreliable issue polling).

      I think another fact overlooked in the binary popular narrative, is that the anti-abortion movement has been driven by men who want to control women's bodies (particularly illustrated with the popularity of the Handmaid's Tale imagery lately), but a large portion of the the movement is women. My mom had a number of girlfriends who were active in the movement (picketing in front of clinics, etc), and the groups included substantial share of women.

      Ultimately, I think the best outcome in the country would reflect the apparent mean of public opinion: Easy availability for early-term, and significant restriction on late term. It seems like the activists on each side are more consumed with getting 100% of what they want, that they're willing to risk ending up with nothing.

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      1. Kier McAlpine

        Correct that is what activists typically are consumed with :)

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    Angie

    Sigh, more depressing news....gah...I need a break...lol
    But, ,l always fun reading you guys...

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