The Sweep: What the Speakership Fight Means for Congressional Campaigns

What happens in the House changes who runs and how they win.

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House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy talks to Rep. Chip Roy and Rep. Jim Jordan during the second day of elections for speaker of the House. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images.)

Appetizer

Is bipartisanship cool again? Maybe. 

Last week, Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden appeared together to tout infrastructure legislation that appropriated funds to fix the Brent Spence Bridge that spans the Ohio River between Cincinnati and Covington, Kentucky. Of course, the Joe Biden who ran for president in 2020 as a dealmaker sounded very different than the Joe Biden who said Republicans were in favor of Jim Crow 2.0 if they didn’t support his voting reform bill in 2021. (Mind you, he had never actually reached out to any Republicans before he gave that speech. But what good are facts when they get in the way of some good, partisan rhetoric?) Which is all to say, Biden’s presidency has been all over the map in terms of strategy. So when the White House says this type of event is its roadmap for the next two years heading into reelection, I’m more in the wait-and-see camp.

But that’s not true of Mitch McConnell. Cocaine Mitch is the most brilliant political strategist alive. He is ruthless. He can see around corners. And he’s almost always right. And there was Mitch McConnell standing next to Joe Biden as surely as Joe Biden was standing next to Mitch McConnell. Why? 

Obviously, having the president in town to tout a home state win is helpful. But this is Kentucky. McConnell doesn’t need help in a general election. Democrat Amy McGrath spent $90 million to lose by 20 points in 2020. If anything, he is more vulnerable in a GOP primary. But who are we kidding? Mitch “Thanks for Playing” McConnell is never, ever going to lose. 

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Comments (34)
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  1. Natalex85

    Your comment on bump stocks “can and should be banned” reveals a tremendous lack of understanding about what a bump stock is, can do, or is capable of. If you feel a bump stock should be banned I can assume you feel the second amendment should be deleted from the constitution. Maybe you do believe that. If so I’m giving my money to the wrong news source. I would enjoy further discussion if you are interested.

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  2. Greg

    Trying to think through the “Chip Roy Caucus”. Didn’t know anything about Chip Roy until the Speaker debacle and everything I know I learned from Sarah. That said, it seems that the Chip Roy Caucus is very much at cross purposes. It seems that “caucus” is made of Chip Roy who wants Washington to work that way it used to work. (Committees do the hard work to take an idea and make it good legislation (or kill it) and only after that hard work can a bill make it to the floor.) He’s basically the only person in the caucus actually fighting for that, right? After his 1 vote for sanity. There are about 10 votes for whatever Club for Growth wants and five votes for “performative jackassery”. The Club for Growth seems focused on Tea Party/shut the government down types and the performative folks (AOC/MTG) would never survive in Chip Roy’s vision of congress.

    If my vote breakdown is correct, then every one of the holdouts (except Chip Roy) were holding out to make changes to the system that are actually not in their best interest, right? 🤦🏻 Gotta tip your cap to Chip Roy for getting what he wants and using a group of useful idiots to get it, I guess.

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  3. Zjim0608

    How do you change the incentives for Congress???????????

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      SandyG

      Change GOP primaries from closed, winner-takes all primaries, to open, proportional allocation of delegates. See https://fairvote.org/our-reforms/ranked-choice-voting/. But how to get the GOP party to change their primaries? That is the question.

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    2. Learnin4life

      Bypassing some of the Speaker's historical power will be an interesting experiment in governance. Maybe a return to a decentralized method of law making will be good for the institution. We shall see. My hope is that this foray into individual representative power does not devolve into a week by week slug fest of competition for sound bites. As we all know, however, hope is not a plan...

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  4. Wrenzie

    I love this! So true -

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  5. Jspobrien

    Excellent piece, Sarah. I subscribe to the Dispatch because it's a thoughtful summary of views that don't necessarily agree with mine. I'm encouraged that the concessions Kevin McCarthy had to make might lead to more accessible legislating and more meaningful House elections.

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  6. Karin

    I hope it’s toothpaste, and that it will go back in the tube. But what if it’s a pickle, and we can’t turn it back into a nice fresh crisp cucumber?

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    Stephens Parker

    Thanks, Sarah. You didn’t mention another who has to be near the bottom of getting things done. Lauren Boebert. She is our Congresswoman and besides no legislation moving forward, constituents are frequently out of luck on just getting responses from her offices on items like Social Security. She couldn’t even have a good interview with Hannity. What a mess.

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    George.Skinner

    The underlying problem Congress has to address to become an effective body again is what Jonah Goldberg labels "performative jackassery." Delegating legislative power back to committees simply gives members like Matt Gaetz more opportunities to do what he did during the speaker vote: posture, cater to his fan and fund-raising base, and create reasons to book him on Fox or Newsmax. It was the rise of that style of politics that led to power being concentrated in the party leadership, and it's going to have to be deterred if other members want to be able to get anything done. Getting that done is going to require a concerted effort by a determined majority of representatives who're willing to shun, censure, and otherwise punish the people who make the rest look bad.

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    JohnM.

    An excellent meal from appetizer to entrée (I skipped dessert today). The write-up on Cocaine Mitch was especially tasty! Thanks, Sarah,

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    Jerrymasters7vwp

    I've read nothing as interestingly useful anywhere, including here, in months. TD just renewed my subscription (without asking). I've often thought that if not for Jonah Goldberg---especially his "Canine Update"---I might think about not subscribing next year. If Sarah's not lured away, I'll have added reason to stay. Good work done exceptionally well.

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