All Bow to the God of Conventional Wisdom

"Both parties suck and that's my position."

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Sarah, Jonah, and David come together to give the midterms a post-mortem to end all postmortems. They discuss the vibe theory of political trends, the presidential prospects of Republicans Not Named Donald Trump, and the lessons both parties took away from the elections.

Oh, and of course: do all roads lead to Georgia..? Again??

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Comments (98)
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  1. Jlkenyon.Phd

    Hello Dispatch - With regard to US support of Ukraine, I am wondering how the cost ($ only) compares with our investment in Afghanistan ($ and blood). Ukraine looks like a much better investment.

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  2. Fiona B

    In all the discussion of polls, I was wondering how to get included in them? I have never participated in a poll outside of a local newspaper, but I would love to contribute my opinion! Any experience with how to find your way into them?

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    Bill Dyer (aka Beldar)

    Mr. French: Today I was mulling your colleague Mr. Catoggio's assertion that Trump still "controls the base" of the GOP.

    And what I flashed to was something that you, and a select few other Dispatch comments readers, will grasp as a powerful metaphor for the current state of the GOP.

    It's a giant game of Capture the Flag being played in Warsong Gulch. Link: https://wowpedia.fandom.com/wiki/Capture_the_Flag

    I trust you to do the appropriate development work to refine and shape this metaphor so as to make it accessible to, and properly appreciated by, a broader but still discriminating audience.

    I do suggest, however, that in these midterms, the Hoard, represented by Gov. DeSantis, has definitely at least seized control of the Alliance's flag from its previous resting-place in Donald Trump's base, and DeSantis is running with it back toward his own (which, oddly enough, is also in Florida). He may be defeated en route, in which case the flag might be snatched up by a teammate who continues the run — or else re-captured and returned to Trump's base. But the flag is definitely IN PLAY.

    You're welcome. All rights waived, no attribution needed. Enjoy.

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  4. Francislyo

    Why were Republicans trounced in the midterms? Thank you for a great analysis!

    I add this, borrowing (and modifying) a famous call from the ’92 presidential campaign:
    “It’s the democracy, stupid”

    This midterm, even the abortion issue was largely about democracy. Don’t underestimate how much we cherish democracy, both in the US and internationally (Ukraine). We know how much our fathers and grandfathers sacrificed in WW II for our freedom and democracy - we don’t want it to disappear on our watch. I say this as a Christian: if MAGA Christians continue to so loudly push to deny and overthrow elections, then Christianity in the US will go the way of Christianity in Germany after WW II.

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    BillAZ

    "Arizona is a mess with some very angry and weird people..." had me chuckling. Jonah must have visited.

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  6. Scott Skelton

    Goldberg states, in essence, that Biden has failed to bring back "normal" to the presidency. Compared to what? Maybe I need to know Goldberg's definition of "normal." Compared to Trump? Also, the more I listen to the three of you prognosticate pre and post election the more I'm convinced you really just don't know - maybe no one does. (I think polling is dead.) Also, Sarah, when are you going to admit that Fetterman's campaign didn't commit malpractice? You are the most normal conservatives I know but you really haven't checked your partisanship. I'm a moderate that paid for a subscription, which I'm glad I paid for, but I think you guys have some huge blindspots. And, Georgia is now irrelevant. Thank the Lord!

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    1. Francislyo

      I understand your frustration, Scott. However, I think that while we all have blind spots, the fairness of these three hosts is very high.

      TD seems to be founded on the principle that by dialoging with each other as a community, sharing ideas and ascribing good motivations and love of country to those with whom we respectfully disagree, we can all beat back our partisan biases. I'm all in with that.

      I think our partisan biases are mostly attributable to our information feeds - we hear completely different news across the partisan divide. TD, with its stated goals of representing a conservative viewpoint, is the medicine I need. So I appreciate TD and the good folks who create this space. I think they do hear you and me when we disagree.

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    2. Bobby D

      Well, it’s still possible that Fetterman would have done even better had he taken a pass on the debate. The fact that he did the debate and still won doesn’t mean that the debate caused him to win.

      Also, I live in a state that neighbors PA and had the misfortune of having to endure much of the campaign. Oz was a thoroughly bad candidate. I also wonder if talk of the “red wave” in the final two weeks may have helped Fetterman. Some Republicans who were unenthusiastic about Oz may have stayed home because they felt that the GOP already had a pathway to 52+ seats.

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  7. John P

    As a Kentuckian who spends too much time online, I think the way people (at least people who are Way Too Online) understood Amendment 2 on our ballot was that it would end abortion in the state, either by itself or in combination with the trigger law that's currently being challenged in the courts. Regardless of the language used.

    That wasn't *my* understanding, but I'm way out over my skis on law topics *and* I'm not very representative of the state in a lot of respects.

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    Ben Connelly

    Somewhere out there is a Dispatch podcast listener named Scott Adams who has always secretly harbored a suspicion that he might be presidential material, who is now saying to himself, “Yes! I’ve got one vote.”

    If we’re airing our preferences to the universe, how about a Goldberg-Roberts 2024 ticket. Russ can still do EconTalk and run Shalem College as VP, and The Fair Jessica can ghostwrite the G-file while her husband is busy repealing the New Deal and Great Society and eliminating the Department of Veterans Affairs.

    By the way, Sarah, I wish to register my disapproval of the notion that 2% of Georgians would have voted Republican but for Walker. I’m sure many of those 2% are not casting a protest vote but rather a positive vote for freedom and against the false binary of two statist parties.

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    1. Fiona B

      I would be excited if any Dispatch employees ran and brought their level-headedness to the unhinged, clownish political culture! I am not kidding and seriously think they would be refreshing!

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  9. Rodbean

    I couldn't find a little heart to register no comment approval, so I'm forced to write something explaining why I like this Dispatch Podcast. I'd like to say that I like the wisdom displayed by these participants so much (although I'd like to see Steve included more), that I nearly always find the time to listen to the Dispatch Podcast. This is more important than it may seem because time is our most valuable commodity, and I am stingy with mine. So that's my "like". I would sure like to see a little red heart, or some other means of quick approval, included though.

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  10. Bobby D

    I disagree with Sarah’s suggestion that Lake disproves that the GOP underperformance falls squarely on the shoulders of MAGA. If Lake even wins, it will be by the slimmest of margins in a red state that a vanilla Republican would have won by 15 points. The fact that a few MAGA candidates can slip through in deeply red parts of the country (e.g., MTG, Boebert, etc.) does nothing to counter the argument that it’s a clear political loser.

    Also, the persistence of MAGA says something about motivated reasoning. The GOP always read too much into Trump’s surprise victory in 2016. After all, he got a smaller percentage of the electorate than Romney, and was running against an unpopular opponent with an incompetent campaign apparatus. And, even then, Trump only won the electoral college because he drew an inside straight and pulled off extremely narrow wins in three states. Such facts don’t support the notion that Trump had somehow discovered the magic formula long-term electoral dominance. But the GOP dismissed the warning signs and doubled down on MAGA anyway, and has continued to do so.

    That’s where motivated reasoning comes in. The GOP wanted to believe that MAGA was the winning formula because doing so made everything so much easier. We no longer needed to concern ourselves about winning over younger voters, non-white voters, or non-religious voters. Instead, we could just turn up the cultural grievance machine (which we already owned) up to volume setting 11, sit back, and let victory ensue. People believed this lie because it reflected the way they wanted reality to be. Now that we’ve suffered losses or underperformance in three consecutive elections, perhaps we’re ready to accept that MAGA was only ever a mirage.

    And the road ahead looks good. Those Republicans who eschewed MAGA did remarkably well.

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