American Defeat

For the large majority of today’s podcast, our hosts discuss the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan ...

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For the large majority of today’s podcast, our hosts discuss the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and how it will affect domestic politics in the United States. Perhaps David summed up the conversation around the Afghanistan situation as succinctly as possible, “There’s no way to spin this as anything other than a direct American defeat.” Plus, short conversations about the state of COVID-19 and the new census data. 

Show Notes:

–The Remnant with Eli Lake

–The Sweep on issue polling 

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  1. The BFJ

    So, we are upset that some parents don't have the right to force other people's children to wear masks?

    I swear, we've lost all ability to conduct rational risk calculation: 0.0005%.

    As a father of five (ages 3 to 21), however, I am not unfamiliar with how cautious new mothers can be. But said caution would be ill-advised for setting school health mandates.

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    Ben Connelly

    Steve was spot on in this podcast. Maybe it’s childhood nostalgia but I’m thinking that the joke’s over and we need to bring Bush back.

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  3. R. James

    Biden made a choice and his choice resulted in a humanitarian crisis and disasterous foreign policy. This result is even more intolerable because it was foreseen by many. Unfortunately, few seem to work in the White House. You cannot look at the impact this decision on US's standing in the world, the counter terrorism threat and the plight of the Afghan people and those Americans trapped behind enemy lines; and conclude this was a worthwhile decision.

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  4. Bruce Moyer

    After listening to the opening rantings of Steve, Jonah and David on the we shoulda-woulda-coulda straw-man I almost drove me to jump into the San Diego Bay today while jogging. Sarah thanks for saving the pod-cast and my life. Your straight forward analytical approach to this situation is why continue to listen.

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    Hrodland

    Better admit this is another "First Manassas moment."

    Whether we should have stayed or gone, it's pretty clear that this has ruined our credibility. Russia and China think that we are no longer serious about our commitments. Ditto for our allies.

    Even if you think leaving was good, this has greatly damged us. It will take someone like Reagan to get our credibility back. But I don't see anyone of that stature in either party--at least who could reasonably run for president.

    To think anything else is delusional.

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    Faraday

    May I suggest that this question needs to be asked of the CDC: What is the status and anticipated timeline for vaccine approval for children under 12 years and removal of the experimental designation in regards to SARS-COV2?

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      Rajeev

      I think it is pretty universally accepted the timeline for 5-12 year olds is by November and the Pfizer approval officially for their vaccine should be expected by October at latest. The other two companies are later because they hadn't applied fully recently.

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  7. Shaybult

    Jonah actually claimed that we know our country doesn't have a lot of racism because 1 in 10 or 1 in 7 marriages are between people of different races. So... the vast majority of marriages being between people of the same race is proof of lack of racism?

    I don't think most people are racist, but that seems a silly way to try to prove that point.

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  8. Daniel

    Yes David, it was a defeat by choice. Because the other choice was an interminable war.

    Most of America is levelheaded enough to recognize when victory is not worth the cost.

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  9. Stock

    Jonah made a reference in this episode to John Belushi begging Carrie Fisher for mercy in the tunnel....Very well played sir. I tip my hat. Take my money, I just subscribed.

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  10. Martin

    Sarah's comments about COVID and mask mandates had me yelling at a podcast for the first time. For a place that generally engages topics with nuance, it's a bit surprising to see a conversation utterly devoid of nuance here. It has been obvious for some time that Sarah has a wildly distorted perception of the risks of COVID to her toddler (hint: very very low) and a similarly distorted perspective on the efficacy of cloth masks.

    Masking up a bunch of children in a long-term indoor setting will, according to the most optimistic studies, provide limited (20-50% and even those are very optimistic) suppression of transmission. For children with serious conditions, it is wildly unrealistic that masks would take this classroom setting from an unsafe place to a safe place. It is this lack of nuance with the corresponding assumption of bad faith that has poisoned the well and politicized this debate.

    It is very hard to trust the public health establishment right now and in such a politically charged climate, it is not hard to imagine that they are not being forthright. That some, like Sarah seemed to be indicating here, can't even indulge in a discussion of the relative risks of vaccination mandates (and one suspects that they'll be coming for 5+ soon enough) will only make the problem worse and discussion of it more poisonous.

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      Rajeev

      I'm not sure where the 20-50% suppression would come from. In theory if all kids wore just a basic cloth mask then it would provide a tremendous amount of virus suppression. The issue comes when some are masked and some aren't. That will provide minimal suppression because the particles will not only make it to the air but will not get filtered by many basic cloth masks. Masking may always be helpful but it really only significantly matters when everyone (or virtually everyone) in a closed room setting is masked.

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      1. Martin

        A good study came out recently: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/06/the-best-mask-wearing-study-so-far.html , though there have been other studies that have shown results as good as 70%, but none of those (including the link) really control for behavior. Mask wearing is (obviously) indicative of more cautious behavior. A school setting largely controls for behavior as the same cohort is all breathing the same volume of air for a specified period of time, negating behavioral effects.

        I send my children to private schools (one of which even has a mask mandate _outside_ and do not complain. I even value that the bias is towards keeping the school open no matter what.

        Nonetheless, there is not a good body of evidence that cloth masks are very effective. When cases ticked up last winter (before I got the vaccine), I wore an N95 or KN95 mask in any closed space, and there is an enormous volume of evidence that, properly worn, are incredibly effective. Anecdotally, my sister manages the nurses in an ICU which has been dominated by COVID patients. Not one of her nurses got it. I would be much more sympathetic to school mask mandates with minimal standards on the masks themselves along with a constant supply of fresh disposable masks in reserve, but that has been lost in the culture war.

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