Finding the Ideological Center of Gravity

Patrick Ruffini, a co-founder of the predictive analytics and research firm Echelon Insights, joins Sarah ...

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Patrick Ruffini, a co-founder of the predictive analytics and research firm Echelon Insights, joins Sarah and Chris to discuss his recent analysis of the American electorate. Ruffini tells our hosts where the ideological center of gravity seems to be and why cultural issues might be driving voter turnout. Chris asks whether a party can adopt a perfect policy position and if party bases tolerate ideological flexibility. Plus, why are moderate Democrats outperforming progressives? And why are educated voters drifting left, but non-educated voters are drifting right? 

Show Notes:

–Echelon Insights Four Quadrants of American Voters

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Comments (24)
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  1. Debra Zinik

    The Azerbaijan and Armenian war in 1991, yes of course I know where Azerbaijan is. The Olympic committee is corrupt and so are the Olympics. Ted Lasso is awesome.

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    IUMaryLou

    Two things: 1) Someone was eating chips/celery/nuts during the pod. Stop it! Surely you can go 40-60 minutes without snacking. 2) I like sports in general but I hate the olympics. Why oh why do we continue to perpetuate the myth that athletes (archery anyone?) are what defines us as a nation? If we must have them I completely agree with Chris that it should be a few sports with measurable, real outcomes. No gymnastics, figure skating, snowboarding tricks, etc.

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    Dave Carson

    First traveled to Azerbaijan in 1991 and lived there in '92. It was the epitome of unknown and exotic back then. Today, not so much.

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    Emerson

    As soon as the podcast was over, I turned to my wife to make her witness that I do indeed know where Azerbaijan is without checking a map.

    Here's what I said: It's to the northeast of Turkey, right next to Armenia and Georgia on that little isthmus between the Black sea and that other big sea on the east side.

    Come on Sarah, it was even in the news for several weeks. Ask Declan about it; he'll fill you in. ;)

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    Will

    I knew where Azerbaijain was. But that's only because a group of Azerbaijainis visited my work, professionally, a few years ago. I was involved in hosting their visit.

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    The Bell Tower

    Chris Stirewalt must seize his rightful throne as Overlord of the Olympics . I vehemently agree with every single sentence he uttered on that topic.

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    Noahpoah

    Excellent episode on an interesting topic, but like so many of the other commenters in this thread, I'm here to pick a nit. By Chris' exacting standards for what should count as an olympic sport, specifically the demand that there be an objectively quantifiable outcome, curling would absolutely still be an olympic sport! It has well-defined rules for scoring, and one team wins while the other loses in every match, without impressionistic judging of aesthetic criteria.

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      IUMaryLou

      I think Sarah was the one who said by his standards curling wouldn’t be in the olympics. He just didn’t correct her, being the polite gentleman he is.

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        Noahpoah

        Yes, it was Sarah that said it. You are probably right that he didn't respond because he's polite and it would have taken them further afield. I should, perhaps, take that politeness as a model...

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    Dave T

    Guys, we need some mic discipline up in here. I can hear writing, someone eating, dogs barking, etc ... mute when you`re not on! Driving me nuts!

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  9. Shane Kuester

    I couldn't believe you started talking about not knowing where Azerbaijan was Sarah! I really do know, I'm back in Texas from living there for the last few years. It's a great place, you should come visit sometime!
    You guys have actually become the premiere source of fact based news in Azerbaijan, at least with this temporary residency holder.
    -Shane
    P.S. Tell David the offer of the hamburger is real.

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    Rajeev

    I'm sorry I have a lot of respect for this polling firm but their methodology to find the "ideological center" seems fairly ridiculous to me. For example, if you look at the most polarizing social issues of the past two decades, many remain polarizing (abortion, immigration, guns, etc) but others have been banked as wins by the cultural left (gay marriage, marijuana, drug sentencing, etc.). So if you don't ask about those issues than you aren't finding the real center culturally. You can't just move the axes away from the culturally conservative and then say that the center lies in that quadrant.

    If the country as a whole were really center-right culturally, then the following results wouldn't have happened over the past two decades:

    2000 - Dem +0.5 million votes (+0.51%)
    2004 - Rep +3.0 million votes (+2.46%)
    2008 - Dem +9.5 million votes (+7.27%)
    2012 - Dem +5.0 million votes (+3.86%)
    2016 - Dem +2.9 million votes (+2.09%)
    2020 - Dem +7.1 million votes (+4.45%)

    Average - Dem +3.7 million votes (+2.62%)

    If you look at a small subset of the population in a few swing states than maybe this data could possibly be representative. We have a habit of forgetting how America truly feels as opposed to a small subset of voters that could potentially be used to draw to an inside straight like 2016.

    So maybe CRT or transgender rights will remain a central issue for the next several years that we will need to adjust the culture war for but, as with gay marriage, a lot of times you can easily predict the long term trend so too much value is given to the earlier days of the issue. And if you have to include things like cancel culture as a culture war, you have to include the vaccine as part of the culture war which the left has clearly won as well by percentages.

    But culturally, this country has moved "leftward" on cultural issues on the aggregate over the past few decades and it's not really that close. Issues like guns and abortion stay 50/50 although they move noisily over the years and certain aspects of them move culturally.

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