The Old Rules Don’t Apply: Israel at War

What comes next?

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How did the 10/7 massacre change the Middle East? What’s Israel hoping to achieve in a ground invasion of Gaza? Are the Israel-Saudi normalization talks dead? Are we giving enough thought to the day after the war? Dr. Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute and its Howard P. Berkowitz chair in U.S. Middle East Policy, joins Dispatch senior producer Adaam to talk Middle East geopolitics. Also: an aside on “from the river to the sea.”

Show Notes:

–Dr. Robert Satloff on Twitter/X (highly recommended to all you geopolitics fiends)

–Satloff: Regime Change, Israeli Style

–Satloff: thoughts on a post-Hamas Gaza

–Hamas’ from-the-river-to-the-sea “solution” (MEMRI)

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  1. Avatar photo
    BrandonAlleman

    This was a very informative podcast. Thanks.

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  2. Brandon Hartley

    Am I the only one that found this discussion deeply frightening? Three or four times there were phrases here: 'The old concern for civilian casualties may be over' 'The old ways dealing with Palestinians are over' '. . . comport to international law *scoff* whatever that is' that gave me absolute chills. I am increasingly getting the impression that Israelis are so wounded, understandably so, that they are preparing to just ditch restraint and launch an invasion with little regard for civilian casualties at all. I'm not saying they're going to target civilians - of course not. But is it in their plan to root out Hamas, "human animals" and, in that process, kill hundreds of thousands here? Are they at the mental place where they believe that will be justified?

    Satloff was a great guest and is clearly very knowledgeable. And he seems quite right when he argues that there is no chance that they'll exterminate every "Hamas janitor" of every elementary school. Much less every tunnel, every rocket, rescue every hostage. That just isn't realistic from a military perspective it seems to me. So they kill tens of thousands of children (very realistic as half the population is under 20) in civilian casualties, only to have Hamas fighters at the end post videos about how they're still there. And we're supposed to see that as a wise course of action because, what, we'll be anti-semitic if we say that's a disastrous plan? Yes, Israel has every right to exist and defend itself but, I'm sorry, I don't think it has the right to defend itself by slaughtering half a million people. I don't think the US can justify the hundreds of thousands of deaths in our wars after 9/11 and I don't think Israel could justify such bloodshed here either?

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    1. Avatar photo
      Ben Connelly

      “I don't think the US can justify the hundreds of thousands of deaths in our wars after 9/11”

      Let’s leave Iraq out of this for a moment because that’s more complicated. I think we absolutely can justify the deaths in Afghanistan by this: we were doing the right thing. We defeated the Taliban and then for 20 years defended the Afghan people and helped them defend themselves from a group that had oppressed them for years and is oppressing them now. At the end, we had a couple air bases in Afghanistan and because of our air support the Afghan military was successfully defending their nation against the Taliban! We had one casualty in February of 2020 and not a single casualty for over a year. We had very few casualties in those last years. If we’d kept a few thousand troops there, mostly to provide air support, the Afghan people could have defended themselves against the thugs who rape women and shoot 12-year-old Hazara children in the street for being an ethnic minority.

      Instead, we betrayed them. We cut a deal with their enemies and pulled out in the most despicable way. We stabbed them in the back and hamstrung their efforts to fight back against the Taliban. We never taught them how to maintain the equipment we left! Our engineers were always the ones fixing things. We never trained and equipped their military to fight by itself! We trained and equipped them to fight alongside us. Of course many Afghan soldiers threw down their arms and didn’t fight the Taliban, because we made it clear who was going to be in charge when we left, and they knew what the Taliban would do to their families if they didn’t surrender. We still have bases in Korea and Germany. If we had pulled out of Korea in 1960 what would have happened? For that matter, what would happen if we cut a deal with Kim and pulled out of Korea today? The South Koreans would put up a heck of a fight, but the North Korean military outnumbers them and might be fighting with Chinese equipment.

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      1. Brandon Hartley

        Yep, I'm totally with you regarding Afghanistan. There was a chance to create something good there long-term and the Biden team largely blew it. They were responding to the prevailing opinion among the country, but the prevailing opinion in the country was wrong.

        I am most definitely thinking of Iraq when I say our actions weren't justified, and did far more harm than good. I think it seriously damaged our reputation in the world's eye, and I do think that is something important. I want Israel to seriously degrade Hamas, and I know that will be very costly in civilian lives, but I don't want it to over-step and squander its reputation in the western world.

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          Ben Connelly

          Yeah I generally think a lot of the criticism of Israel is preemptive and baseless, but I hope they will continue to make strong efforts to minimize civilian casualties. Hamas will go out of its way to sacrifice Palestinian lives, but Israel shouldn’t pull a Grozny.

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          1. Nordic_man

            The reports of white phosphorous kinda don't look that great right now...

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    2. Danvicki

      Israel must occupy Gaza and establish a Marshal type plan to rebuild the damaged infrastructure as well as develop electric and water capacity adequate to support the citizens of Gaza. Build K-12 education systems. This long term plan is necessary to overcome the 18 years of anti Israel brainwashing Hamas has accomplished.
      As for 1/2 million civilian casualties, Hartley catastrophrzes, the supporters of Hamas deserve what they get.

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      1. Brandon Hartley

        Hmmm, my heart cheers by the mere mention of the Marshal plan. And I tip my hat to your suggestion for some type of after-war action. But, sadly, I'm doubtful that it could work any more. Adaam's guest Robert Satloff said that recent polls indicate 30% of Gazans support Hamas. That's more than I would like to see for such a clearly evil organization, and it's great that that still leaves 70% of the population in the against camp. Yet 30% seems high enough to prevent the type of infrastructure rebuilding that we would love to see, doesn't it? I mean, I love it in theory, but I'd be amazed if Hamas didn't attack the organizations that attempted to build up Gaza -- they'd correctly realize that development, growth, and normalization would diminish their support. I think they do depend on the brutalization of the public.

        It's hard for me to see how the strip doesn't need new governance as a pre-condition. Or even just voluntary relocation and depopulation to let the population "reset" somehow. But I think we need to start thinking about long term plans. My complaint with so many commentators and pundits is that I'm seeing very little thought going in to trying to solve this puzzle. So many thinkers and writers I respect seem to be completely in "Israel must be able to defend itself" without any limiting principles whatsoever.

        And I have to think that there should be limiting principles. I think a rational person would agree that it is not ethical to eradicate the entire population, but it is ethical for there to be some civilian casualties in an effort to defend yourself from a military threat. Both of those sides seem clear to me. But that clarity also entails that there is a line somewhere in between where the ethics shift. Saying "they deserve what they get" has no limit - if that is the principle than killing all Gazans is acceptable. I have to reject that. If Israel isn't at war with Palestinians in general, then where is that line? Are they doing what is reasonable to protect innocent civilians, young women and children if no one else? Are they opening the eastern gates to let out "innocents" and lower the death toll? Or are they turning them around back toward the war? Are they going to let children starve or get dysentery from lack of clean water?

        I want to see Hamas significantly degraded or even destroyed. I would place the civilian death toll "line" a lot higher than many, I suspect. But I would like to hear a lot more about how Israel is NOT going to allow hundreds of thousands of civilians to die. That seems ethical to me, good politics, and good PR.

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        1. Danvicki

          We cannot defeat an enemy that does not have any limitation on its attacks if we limit our responses.
          If 30% of Gaza residents support Hamas then 300,000 or 400,000 causalities are necessary to purge the promoters of”death to Israel”. Limiting civilian causalities implies that the IDF can identify civilians from terrorist. My experience in RVN proves the impossibility of this. Given the extensive biased media coverage in Vietnam and Gaza, any dead citizen is an innocent civilian inspire of the guns and ammo found on the body.
          Anyway there is no simple solution to a difficult problem and I suspect that the US will arm twist Israel to “be nice” and Hamas will survive and attack again, but with a larger force.

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          Aylene Wright

          That 30% figure is a lot smaller than the impression I get from a lot of pro-Israel sources, indeed most seem to think 70% of Gazans support Hamas, not the other way around.

          That being said, I don't think most pro-Israel people are actually saying "if we really have to kill every single person in Gaza to end the Hamas threat, so be it". I consider myself pro-Israel, and like you, accept that many civilians will die, but I don't think that Israel has no responsibility at all to limit collateral damage.

          Indeed, I found John Kirby's recent comments on the topic, in reply to a reporter saying his prior comment on how innocents always die in war, was "harsh", to be pretty much my own take. He did acknowledge that any civilian death was a tragedy, but reiterated support for Israel defending itself, and pointed out that Hamas putting their own people in harm's way was harsh, too.

          But the comment you replied to, indicating actual support for killing everyone in Gaza, certainly isn't the first of that nature I have seen, even in TD comments. That certainly does give me a few chills.

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          1. Brandon Hartley

            Yep, exactly. Most, essentially all, normal people would recoil from the "kill them all" logic. I guess I would just like to hear reasurrances of that awareness. Of course, that invites criticism of the sort, "Oh, so we're not defending ourselves in the exactly the right way, you arrogant American overlord?" And I can understand that reflexive impulse. But it is our aircraft carriers out there shooting down missiles launched from other places. We are the ones threatening a wider war to try and deter that very same thing from happening, so it isn't reasonable to think that the American public gets no say in this operation. But, again, I'm no pacifist - Hamas has to pay a steep military price here, that seems clear.

            I keep going back to something Jonah said. The progressive left can't say that Hamas represents the Palestinian people in its fight for independance and then simultaneously say that the Palestinian people are completely innocent of what happened 10/7. But then the pro-Israel radical side can't also say that they aren't at war with the Palestinian people and then adopt collective punishment tactics. I have to say that cutting off food, medical supplies, and even water to the entire populace is deeply troubling (I'm aware that they seem to have turned back on water to some of the southern cities to encourage migration). Refusing to take in any refugees, forcing them up against the Egyptian border crossing like fans at an over-crowded soccer match is deeply troubling. Destroying the housing of half of an urban population with no plan to house them in the future is deeply troubling. These tactics make me question their true concern for civilian deaths. Is part of the plan here to "teach the Gazans" a lesson by causing dysentery among children living in tents? That is deeply troubling . . .

            BTW, thank you very much for your conversation! No one among my social group wants to get anywhere near discussing this issue, so these comment sections are such a great place to think through my own thoughts ^_^ I'm very grateful to all the level-headed good-faith folks in the comment section!

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        Scarlette Tarte

        No, they don't. Civilians are brainwashed into loving their own side, no matter what country it is. We are all raised by parents who were inculcated into a system, as were their parents. That is why nations don't hold civilians responsible for what their governments do.

        Should I say we should have a civil war with right wing states and the supporters of Trump deserve what they get?

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    Seth B

    Another excellent one, Adaam. Thank you!

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  4. Snoopyboobs

    Great cheer-leading as we march toward a new war. nothing has changed, hamas are terrorists and Israel is a criminal state.

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  5. Richard Kennedy

    Thank you! This puts more coherent words to what I’ve been arguing for years. Hamas is not just a totalitarian bully heedless of decency. It has very specific goals. This seems like a first strike for a specific strategy.
    Adam, I want to thank you as well for an opening for me into the mind of the Israeli populace.

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    Patrick

    This was great, Adaam. Very measured and helps explain the terrible choices facing Israel in a post 10/7 world.

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  7. Sarah

    Thank you so much for this discussion. It was incredibly helpful!

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