Apocalypse Maybe

Cato Institute uberwonk Marian Tupy returns to the Remnant to discuss his new book, Superabundance: ...

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Cato Institute uberwonk Marian Tupy returns to the Remnant to discuss his new book, Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet. For some time, the idea that overpopulation will deplete the world of its resources has been popular in sociology. In this extra-long, extra-nerdy outing, Marian explains why its proponents are mistaken. He and Jonah also explore how nations become prosperous, the problem of collapsing fertility rates, and the appeal of apocalyptic predictions.

Show Notes:

– Marian’s page at the Cato Institute

– Marian and Gale L. Pooley’s new book, Superabundance

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  1. Eklees

    Genius is not a function of genes - it can appear anywhere, any time. However, only one in every two million people might be a genius and the likelihood this person is another Thomas Edison is very small. The point is that having more children is not a particularly good way to get more Edisons.
    A far better shot is to divert resources to educate the 2-3 billion people in Africa, Asia, Central & South America. There are almost certainly math prodigies in those populations whose talents could be developed in America. A better immigration program would improve our population statistics, likely yield some important tech talent and help us solve the problems of greatest concern, e g., species conservation, CO2 emissions, etc.

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    Richard Leveille

    Great episode with Tupy. In terms of a very insightful view into the apocalyptic mind set, very prevalent on the environmental left as well as on the Trumpian right ("Flight 93"); can I suggest Pascal Bruckner as a guest? His book The Fanaticism of the Apocalypse" is a stinging criticism of the many forms of catastrophism that dominate thought in the modern West.

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  3. Pudge

    Just out of curiosity on the hours of labor thing. Is there anything that is more expensive? I can’t think of one but….

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  4. Pohl

    “When a man is tired of London, he is tired of life.” The guest made a good case that this should not be a concern now, except for misanthropes. The discussion really must start with the purposes of marriage. Then one must show when it is morally licit to space and limit births, for example, before even contemplating how this might affect things in the aggregate. Too many human persons is not really a thing, yet. It will hit us over the head if it ever becomes one.

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    Cthocas

    I'm listening now, and I just wanted to say the anti-natalist cultural wave infuriates me so much. It's misanthropic in the extreme—and worse, it's self-righteous misanthropy. "We can't have children, because humans are awful" is such an awful, self-absorbed philosophy. For God's sakes, have the children and then just throw yourself into the volcano if you're convinced there's too many people. At least give the next generation the chance to decide for themselves whether or not humanity is a thing worth having.

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  6. Michael.Mcchesney

    Workable fusion is a technology that was only 20 years away and will remain only 20 years away for the foreseeable future. Wind and solar could be scaled to the point of creating all the electrical energy we need, but can't be relied upon to create the electricity as we need it. In other words, wind and solar alone can't meet all our energy needs unless and until we develop mass energy storage technology. If only there was a technology capable of producing electricity on demand without producing any greenhouse gasses. If only someone could invent nuclear power!!!

    California is currently suffering from shortages of two things vital to modern life, fresh water and electricity. California is actually trying to shut its nuclear power plants while also banning the sale of new gas powered cars even though it's current electrical grid is incapable of matching summer demand. The state actually requested current electric car owners not to charge their cars during their current heatwave. Instead, they should be building new nuclear power plants that can help overcome both shortages, while also ensuring a ready supply of lithium for the batteries for electric cars. The answer to a shortage of fresh water for a state bordering the pacific ocean is desalination. Desalination is energy intensive (hence the building of new nuclear plants) and leaves behind an extremely salty brine that can be environmentally harmful if it is simply pumped back in to the ocean. But seawater can also be a source of lithium, which is extracted along with other salts by allowing the seawater to evaporate in ponds. Instead of pumping seawater into evaporation ponds, first extract fresh water and pump the brine into evaporation ponds. No harmful brine need be released into the ocean and no greenhouse gasses need be released into the atmosphere.

    Investments in nuclear power and desalination could eliminate brown outs and drought as concerns for California residents. If you are worried that if they did that there would be nothing for Californians to complain about, they will still have liberal prosecutors so they will still have crime.

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      Mudskipper

      California has one operating nuclear power plant: the Diablo Canyon power plant. A bill is heading to Gavin Newsom's desk that would give PG&E a $1.4 billion loan to keep the plant operational and extend its lifetime. Newsom is expected to sign it. In other words, California is doing the opposite of shutting down Diablo Canyon.

      California's grid is more than capable of meeting ordinary summer demand. It is only during extraordinary heat waves, such as the one we are experiencing, when the grid gets stressed. We aren't the only state whose grid gets stressed under these circumstances. Let me point out that if we did have rotating outages yesterday (we did not), these outages would have affected a relatively small proportion of California households for relatively short periods of time. Rotating outages generally last from 15 minutes to two hours.

      California asked EV drivers not to charge their cars between the hours of 4pm and 9pm. As a driver of a PHEV, I can tell you that most EV drivers avoid charging between those hours anyway, since they are peak hours and electricity rate is a little more than double the rate during off peak hours. For most EV owners, this request hardly represented a burden.

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      1. Michael.Mcchesney

        California is trying to extend the life of Diablo Canyon, but they had previously wanted to shut it. Obviously, they need the power from it. As more and more vehicles become electric, the demands on California's power grid are going to increase drastically. We have the ability to build safe nuclear power plants that can produce electricity and increase or decrease the amount they produce as demand changes and do all that while not producing any greenhouse gasses. Granted, building new nuclear power plants will be expensive, but worth the expense in my opinion if such plants allow us to reach net zero carbon emissions. I'm a (recovering) lawyer, not a scientist or nuclear engineer, but from what I've read and studied (being retired has its perks) I'm not sure it will be possible to reach net zero carbon without increased use of nuclear power.

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  7. GregS

    Here's what I'm hearing from you regardijg climate change, Jonah:

    I don't believe climate change is real, you guys are alarmists and making it up for bad reasons.
    I still don't believe that climate change is real.
    Ok some other guy (but not you) convinced me that climate change is real, but its not as big a deal as you say it is.
    But, now that I believe its real, the solution I have chosen is obviously the right one and once again, you're clearly wrong.
    My preferred solution is one that doesn't currently exist at scale, and we should mostly do nothing until that solution is ready.
    The fact that you guys don't agree with me is proof that you're not actually interested in solutions and just like apocalyptic thinking.

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    1. Pohl

      I agree with Jonah(s).

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    2. GregS

      Incidentally its very similar to how you talk about MAGA:

      MAGA isn't a big problem.
      Ok MAGA is a problem but not as existential a problem as you say.
      While I don't agree that MAGA is as existential a problem as you say it is, I think that if you don't use the solution I recommend, it shows that you're lying when you say MAGA is a problem.

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    Cthocas

    I look forward to listening. There are many apocalyptic scenarios I've read about over the years (especially in college) that simply never materialized, as the predictions themselves were overblown and human ingenuity proved more than adequate to meet the challenges that did arise. In fact there are so many such instances that while it's hard to deny that humans can and do affect climate on a wide scale, the prophecies of doom around climate change simply bring to mind all the other inevitable catastrophes that were, in the end, not so inevitable after all.

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    CynthiaW

    Good chat. I'm sorry about your gout, hope you feel better soon.

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    Philbnichols

    On the population issue, the best question that came to mind that wasn't asked is, 'What if the reason for life-changing breakthroughs and discoveries and inventions is not that a particular person had the idea, but that the idea was ripe w/in our civilization at the time, and someone was going to be the point person?' If this were true, more people would not necessarily be a solution. Personally I'm a fan of more people, but I do see a potential for overpopulation, just not the way things are looking demographically right now.
    But then, by the time the US' population is looking to finally start to decline (between 50 & 100 years or so), a huge chunk of Florida will be covered with asphalt or concrete. Don't think I want that.
    I'd love to hear a good back & forth on this.

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      Philbnichols

      @Jonah Goldberg ^

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