The Morning Dispatch: Will We See More Middle East Peace Agreements?

Happy Thursday! A big thank you to the (literally) 250 Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson voters who reached out to Declan yesterday. He spent most of yesterday trying to get back to all of you (apologies if he hasn’t yet!), and is looking forward to digging into all your responses over the next few days.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• The United States confirmed 25,436 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday per the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, with 3.5 percent of the 723,022 tests reported coming back positive. An additional 967 deaths were attributed to the virus on Wednesday, bringing the pandemic’s American death toll to 196,732.

• Dan Coats, longtime Republican senator from Indiana and former Director of National Intelligence in the Trump administration, is calling for the formation of a bipartisan panel to oversee the 2020 elections. He writes: “The most urgent task American leaders face is to ensure that the election’s results are accepted as legitimate.”

• Federal Reserve leaders updated their economic projections for the coming years yesterday, and they made clear they expect interest rates to remain near zero through 2023. The Fed now expects GDP to drop by 3.5 percent this year instead of the 6.5 percent it projected in June, and it sees the unemployment rate falling to 7.6 percent by the end of 2020 rather than 9.3 percent. “The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected,” Chairman Jerome Powell said.

• Sally has been downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical depression after making landfall along the Gulf Coast, but heavy winds and rains ravaged Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with some parts of Florida receiving up to 30 inches of rainfall. One death has thus far been attributed to the storm.

• President Trump indicated yesterday he wants Republicans in Congress to approve a larger COVID relief package, saying they should “go for the much higher numbers” because “it all comes back to the USA anyway.” The bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in the House released an approximately $1.5 trillion framework Tuesday, but that price tag is, as of now, too low to gain much Democratic support and too high to gain much Republican support.

• The vandalism and looting that occurred in cities across the country after the killing of George Floyd during late May and early June will result in $1 billion to $2 billion of paid insurance claims—the most expensive civil unrest in recent history—according to data from Property Claim Services and the Insurance Information Institute.

• The GOP-led Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee voted to authorize dozens of subpoenas as part of an investigation into Obama administration officials’ actions during the presidential transition. Sen. Mitt Romney said he would have voted against a separate subpoena for an investigation into Joe and Hunter Biden because it “has the earmarks of a political exercise” and it is “not the legitimate role of government, for Congress or for taxpayer expense, to be used in an effort to damage political opponents.”

• The Republican Senate majority looks to be in increasing peril, according to new Quinnipiac polls released Wednesday. Sen. Susan Collins trails challenger Sara Gideon by 12 percentage points in Maine, and Sen. Lindsey Graham is knotted up with Jaime Harrison at 48 percent. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is, however, ahead of Amy McGrath by 12 percentage points in Kentucky.

• Attorney General Bill Barr told a gathering Wednesday that “putting a national lockdown, stay at home orders, is like house arrest. Other than slavery, which was a different kind of restraint, this is the greatest intrusion on civil liberties in American history.” 

• After initially opting to punt on a fall college football season, the Big Ten Conference reversed course on Wednesday, announcing its presidents and chancellors voted unanimously to kick off the season in late October. The Trump campaign immediately touted the president’s role in encouraging the conference, dominated by schools in the electorally important Upper Midwest, to play ball.

A Historic Middle East Peace Agreement. Are More on the Way?

President Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain convened on the South Lawn of the White House Tuesday to sign historic deals fully normalizing relations between Israel and the two Gulf states. The grandiose ceremony ushered in “the dawn of the new Middle East,” according to the president, whose administration brokered the two agreements.

Other Arab countries may soon follow the lead of Bahrain and the UAE. The president alluded to the possibility in his speech, promising that “at least five or six countries will be coming along very quickly.” Given the historic coordination between Arab states throughout the region—and the overt efforts by the Trump administration to push for more agreements—the UAE and Bahrain may be the first of several new countries to establish full economic and diplomatic ties with the Jewish state.

“The United States is putting pressure on other countries to form similar agreements. The three most likely countries are Oman, Sudan and Morocco,” said Gawdat Bahgat, professor of National Security Affairs at the National Defense University. The press in those countries have covered recent normalizations favorably, and leaders in Oman and Sudan have both met with Netanyahu. “There is a very large Jewish community in Morocco,” Bahgat added, “and the country has been less hostile to Israel than other Arab countries in the past.”

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia remains the biggest question mark in the Middle East’s realignment, facing internal restraints from the country’s religious elite. “I spoke with the King of Saudi Arabia and we had a great conversation and I think positive things will happen there too,” Trump said on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia recently opened its airspace for commercial flights between Israel and the United Arab Emirates—another cause for optimism.

But as the most powerful and populous of the Gulf nations, Saudi Arabia tends to exercise more caution in its outward diplomacy with Israel. The two countries work together privately, but the full normalization of relations is unlikely while King Salman bin Abdulaziz continues his reign over the country, despite behind-the-scenes efforts by the de facto ruler—Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman. Bahgat noted that the King, now 84, doesn’t want to be remembered as the Saudi leader who abandoned the Palestinian cause. “He is concerned with his legacy. Even if he’s convinced it’s the right thing to do, given his age, I doubt he will cross that bridge,” he said. But in private discussions with U.S. officials and foreign policy thinkers, MBS has long touted his eagerness to improve relations with Israel—and to do so in public.

The Palestinians themselves, Bahgat explained, are experiencing similar resistance within the ranks of their leadership to confer with the Israelis. Despite pressing economic and security incentives to come to the negotiating table, a compromise—even one that incorporates a robust two-state solution—remains a pipe dream while Mahmoud Abbas controls the Palestinian Authority. “Peace, security and stability will not be achieved in the region until the Israeli occupation ends,” Abbas said after Tuesday’s ceremony.

In a statement on the peace agreements, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden applauded the new developments but doubled-down on his ticket’s commitment to securing a favorable deal for the Palestinians. “I welcome the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain taking steps to normalize ties with Israel. It is good to see others in the Middle East recognizing Israel and even welcoming it as a partner,” he said. “A Biden-Harris administration will build on these steps, challenge other nations to keep pace, and work to leverage these growing ties into progress toward a two-state solution and a more stable, peaceful region.”

But by-and-large, the Arab Gulf states favor a Trump victory. On Saturday, Biden made clear his intention to re-enter the United States into the Iran nuclear deal—a prospect that alarms Tehran’s regional rivals who welcomed the reimposition of sanctions, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The signing of historic peace deals by Bahrain and the UAE—and the positive press peddled by Saudi Arabia afterward—seem to be a means of bolstering the president’s re-election efforts. Trump’s rhetorical, economic, and diplomatic commitment to the Gulf states—and his hardline stance on Iran—have positioned him as the American leader of choice in the region.

Although it has unfolded underground for several years, the Middle East’s realignment marks a significant step for the Arab states and Israel. The Gulf states gain a valuable military and technological resource in the Jewish state, and Israel benefits from alliances where it was once regionally isolated. “The whole security landscape of the Middle East is changing. One one side, there is Israel and the Gulf States, supported by the United States,” Bahgat said. “On the other side, Iran and Turkey are supported by Russia and China. Iran hates having Israel in its backyard and the UAE is only 60 miles from Iran.”

When Public Health Adopts a Partisan Slant

We’re still a yet-to-be-determined amount of time away from an effective and widely available COVID-19 vaccine, but we’re closer than we were yesterday. And like just about everything else these days, public health has become an increasingly partisan issue—and neither “side” has a monopoly on responsible behavior.

Testifying before a Senate panel Wednesday morning, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), said that a vaccine could be available to first responders by the end of this year. But, he clarified, it will likely be six to nine months before the Food and Drug Administration approves a vaccine for widespread national distribution. “We’re probably looking at late-Q2, Q3 2021,” he told Sen. John Kennedy, a Republican from Louisiana. Redfield added that mask-wearing will continue to be an important public health measure even after we get a vaccine. “I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine,” he said. “The immunogenicity may be 70 percent, and if I don’t get an immune response, this vaccine’s not going to protect me. This face mask will.”

These comments from Redfield were undoubtedly intended—at least in part—to alleviate concerns that Trump administration officials are hyping up—and more importantly, rushing—a vaccine for political purposes. Earlier this month, the CDC told state officials to prepare for vaccine distribution right around election day. If you’re predisposed not to trust the Trump administration, the timing likely seemed anything but coincidental. But even Dr. Anthony Fauci—who has proved himself willing to contradict Trump’s happy talk on the virus—said Wednesday he would “still put [his] money on November/December” for a safe and effective vaccine to be approved.

“Our decision at FDA will not be made on any other criteria than the science and data associated with these clinical trials,” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said a few weeks ago. (It should be noted, though, that Hahn recently had to apologize for overhyping the benefits of convalescent plasma in treating COVID-19 patients.)

The development and rollout of a vaccine is not really something that can be faked. The odds are pretty slim massive pharmaceutical companies would put their reputations (and liability) on the line—and the entire public health community (or “deep state”) would keep mum—all so Trump can push out an ineffective or unsafe inoculation next month to boost his re-election chances.

But that won’t stop Trump from sowing as much doubt as he possibly can about the process. In a press conference Wednesday, Trump said Redfield had “made a mistake” when he testified about the timing of vaccine distribution. “I think he misunderstood the question, probably.”

“But I’m telling you, here’s the bottom line,” Trump continued. “Distribution is going to be very rapid. He may not know that. Maybe he’s not aware of that, and maybe he’s not dealing with the military, etc., like I do. Distribution is going to be very rapid. And the vaccine is going to be very powerful.”

In a pair of tweets after Trump’s comments, Redfield said “a COVID-19 vaccine is the thing that will get Americans back to normal everyday life,” but reiterated that “the best defense we currently have against this virus are the important mitigation efforts of wearing a mask, washing your hands, social distancing and being careful about crowds.”

Whenever a working vaccine is available, the more Americans receive it, the more effective it will be in stamping out the virus. But recent rhetoric from some Democratic leaders seems likely to inhibit that goal.

Cal Cunningham, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, said in a debate this week he would be “hesitant” to take a COVID-19 vaccine that was developed by the end of the year. “I’m going to ask a lot of questions,” he added. “I think that’s incumbent on all of us right now with the way we’ve seen politics intervening in Washington.”

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have not gone that far in their comments, but they’ve certainly cast doubt on the Trump administration’s ability to separate politics and public health. “Let me be clear,” Biden said yesterday after receiving a briefing from public health experts on the state of the pandemic. “I trust vaccines. I trust the scientists. But I don’t trust Donald Trump—and the American people can’t either.”

“If Donald Trump can give honest answers to these questions,” Biden continued, “the American people should have the confidence and transparency they need to trust a vaccine and adopt it in numbers that make a difference. First, what criteria will be used to ensure that a vaccine meets the scientific standard of safety and effectiveness? Second, if the Administration green-lights a vaccine, who will validate that the decision was driven by science rather than politics? Third, how can we be sure that the distribution of the vaccine will take place safely, cost-free, and without a hint of favoritism?”

Harris told CNN last week she would not take Trump’s word on a vaccine, saying “it would have to be a credible source of information that talks about the efficacy and the reliability” of an inoculation. She added that she thinks public health experts will “be muzzled, they’ll be suppressed, they will be sidelined because he’s looking at an election coming up in less than 60 days and he’s grasping to get whatever he can to pretend he has been a leader on this issue when he is not.”

Harris is far from alone in not trusting President Trump on vaccine development. The latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll found just 26 percent of respondents trust what Trump has said about vaccine development, compared with 52 percent who do not. That same poll found only 39 percent of respondents said they get a government-approved coronavirus vaccine when it becomes widely available; 23 percent said they wouldn’t and 36 percent said they weren’t sure.

If you want to read more on this messaging confusion, and why it matters, Andrew’s got a piece up on the site today breaking down the Trump/Redfield controversy and looking into the potential dangers it represents to public health:

Trying to get crucial public health information through to the public is a tricky business at the best of times; people just have too many pressing things going on in their lives to spend hours sifting through competing public health narratives to try to get at the truth. Instead, they tend to retreat into partisan information silos, or to tune the conversation out altogether.

Worth Your Time

• As Joe Pinsker writes in The Atlantic this week, Americans are coping with their coronavirus anxieties by imagining “all of the vacations they’ll go on, all of the concerts they’ll attend, and all of the hugs they’ll give” once the pandemic is “over.” But what will “over” really mean? Will we get this momentous sense of closure we keep fantasizing about? “If and when the pandemic is over someday—in the sense that it’s safe to resume normal life, or something like it—pinpointing its conclusion may never be possible,” Pinsker argues. “Internalizing that, and mentally bracing for a slow fade into the new normal, might lead to less angst.”

• The stock market plunged this spring as coronavirus lockdowns first went into effect, but it has since made a record-breaking rebound, puzzling many Wall Street analysts. Why does the stock market keep going up? Anyone who has kept a close eye on her brokerage account knows that tech giants are partially responsible for this trend. But the surge in retail investors, momentum trading, stimulus checks, and expectations of a strong recovery have also played a role in pulling us out of a bear market. Read Gunjan Banerji’s Wall Street Journal piece for a close look at the five factors that are driving this historic stock market rally.

• Speakers at the Republican National Convention last month devoted a lot of time and energy encouraging minority voters to look at President Trump’s policies and break away from the Democratic Party in 2020. This excellent New York Times magazine piece from Theodore Johnson takes a historical look at the black vote in particular, and how it became a political monolith. “Surveys routinely show that Black Americans are scattered across the ideological spectrum despite overwhelmingly voting for Democrats. Gallup data for last year showed that just over two in five Black Americans identify as moderate and that roughly a quarter each identify as liberal or conservative,” he points out. But Dwight Eisenhower was the last Republican presidential candidate to receive more than 15 percent of the black vote. “When [Barry] Goldwater became the 1964 Republican presidential nominee and voiced his opposition to the Civil Rights Act, Black voters bunched themselves into the Democratic Party for good, supporting Lyndon Johnson at a rate comparable with Barack Obama’s nearly a half-century later.”

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Toeing the Company Line

• David’s French Press (🔒) yesterday took a nuanced look at the American founding, and whether efforts to rebrand it as an inherently racist endeavor have any merit. “1776 still represents the ‘true founding’ of the United States of America,” he writes. “When the Founders ratified the Declaration of Independence (and later the Constitution and Bill of Rights), they created something new—a civilization centered around the aspiration of human liberty and dignity.” But that does not mean the legacy of slavery is not still present in today’s world. “If you take any population of human beings, treat them as property for 245 years, actively, legally, and violently discriminate against them for 99 more, and only give them the necessary legal tools to effectively fight back 56 years ago, then you’re going to still see significant consequences.”

• Jonah’s latest midweek G-File (🔒) focuses on calls to extend democracy. “Democracy is great,” he concludes. “But it’s not perfectly scalable, because as the franchise increases, majorities can get the power to oppress minorities. The best way to ensure that the most people get to live the way they want to live is to put in reasonable bulwarks at every level.”

• Head of the National Counterterrorism Center Christopher Miller wrote a piece last week arguing the “end of the war on al-Qaeda [is] well in sight.” Thomas Joscelyn doesn’t think it’s so simple, and he explains why in his most recent Vital Interests newsletter (🔒). “We’ve heard this before,” he writes. “In 2012, President Obama’s chief counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, declared that al-Qaeda would meet ‘its demise’ sometime in the decade to come. That didn’t happen. Instead, al-Qaeda adapted to the post-bin Laden world.”

• The latest Dispatch Podcast goes deep on the Middle East peace deal and partisan reactions to it before turning to the return of Big Ten football, the conspiratorial trajectory of American politics, many Republicans’ conviction that Joe Biden is nothing but a cardboard cutout for the progressive far left, and … Grover Cleveland! 

• In our latest “Biden Agenda” piece, Matthew Kroenig, national security adviser to several presidential campaigns and deputy director of the Scowcroft Center at the Atlantic Council, investigates how Biden would handle relations with geopolitical foes like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China.

• Ayaan Hirsi Ali makes her Dispatch debut today, looking at how obfuscation has hampered our immigration debate. The term “migration” is taking hold in our discussions, and people who want better economic opportunities are seeking asylum, which is intended for those fleeing persecution or conflict.

Let Us Know

What will you personally want to see before you decide to receive a COVID-19 vaccine?

Reporting by Declan Garvey (@declanpgarvey), Andrew Egger (@EggerDC), Charlotte Lawson (@charlotteUVA), Audrey Fahlberg (@FahlOutBerg), James P. Sutton (@jamespsuttonsf), and Steve Hayes (@stephenfhayes).

Photograph by Chen Mengtong/China News Service via Getty Images.